Body composition changes during breast cancer preventive treatment with anastrozole: Findings from the IBIS-II trial.

Background: Uptake to anastrozole for breast cancer prevention is low, partly due to women's concerns about side effects including gains in weight and specifically gains in body fat. Previous evidence does not link anastrozole with gains in weight, but there is a lack of data on any effects on body composition i.e. changes in fat and fat free mass. Here we assess association of anastrozole with body composition changes in a prospective sub-study from the second international breast intervention trial (IBIS-II). Methods: Participants had DXA scans at baseline and for five years of anastrozole/placebo and beyond (between March 2004 and September 2017. Primary outcomes were changes in body weight, body fat and fat free mass at 9-18 months. A linear model was used to estimate the size of a differential effect in these outcomes by randomised treatment allocation adjusted for baseline value and time since last scan, age, 10-year breast cancer risk, smoking and HRT status. Results: 203 postmenopausal women were recruited (n = 95 anastrozole, n = 108 placebo), mean age 58 years (SD = 5.4), BMI 28.0 kg/m2 (SD = 5.5). There was no evidence of a strong association between anastrozole or placebo and endpoints at 9-18 months; effect size (95 %CI) for anastrozole minus placebo for body weight (per/kg) -0.11 (-1.29-1.08); body fat 0.11 (-0.75-0.96) and fat free mass -0.30 (-0.79-0.19). Conclusions: There is unlikely to be a clinically significant change to body composition with anastrozole for breast cancer prevention.

Comparison of StemPrintER with Oncotype DX Recurrence Score for predicting risk of breast cancer distant recurrence after endocrine therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Molecular tests predicting the risk of distant recurrence (DR) can be used to assist therapy decision-making in oestrogen receptor-positive (ER+) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) breast cancer patients after considerations of standard clinical markers. The Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS) is a widespread tool used for this purpose. Here, we compared the RS with the StemPrintER Risk Score (SPRS), a novel genomic predictor with a unique biological basis in its ability to measure the expression of cancer stemness genes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We benchmarked the SPRS vs. RS, alone or in combination with clinicopathological variables expressed by the Clinical Treatment Score (CTS), for the prognostication of DR in a retrospective cohort of 776 postmenopausal patients with ER+/HER2-breast cancer enrolled in the translational arm of the randomised Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial. Likelihood ratio (LR) with χ2 test and C-index were used to assess prognostic performance for the entire ten-year follow-up period and in early (0-5 years) and late (5-10 years) intervals. RESULTS: In all patients, the SPRS provided significantly more prognostic information than the RS for ten-year DR prognostication (C-index = 0.688, LR-χ2 = 33.4 vs. C-index = 0.641, LR-χ2 = 22.1) and for late (5-10 years) DR prognostication (C-index = 0.689, LR-χ2 = 18.8 vs. C-index = 0.571, LR-χ2 = 4.7). The SPRS also provided more prognostic information than the RS when added to the CTS in all patients (CTS + SPRS: LR-Δχ2 = 14.9; CTS + RS: LR-Δχ2 = 9.7) and in node-negative patients (CTS + SPRS: LR-Δχ2 = 11.7; CTS + RS: LR-Δχ2 = 6.6). CONCLUSIONS: In postmenopausal ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients, SPRS provided more prognostic information than RS for DR when used alone or in combination with the CTS. The SPRS could therefore potentially identify high-risk patients, who might benefit from aggressive treatments, from low-risk patients who might safely avoid adjuvant chemotherapy or prolongation of endocrine therapy.

A Novel Automated Immunoassay Platform to Evaluate the Association of Adiponectin and Leptin Levels with Breast Cancer Risk.

Adiponectin and leptin are adipokines secreted by the adipose tissue that are associated with several chronic diseases including cancer. We aimed to compare the immunoassay platform ELLA with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kit and to assess whether the results of the association analyses with breast cancer risk were dependent on the assay used. We measured adiponectin and leptin with ELLA and ELISA on baseline serum samples of 116 Italian postmenopausal women enrolled in two international breast cancer prevention trials. Results were compared with Deming, Passing-Bablok regression and Bland-Altman plots. Disease-free survival was analyzed with the Cox model. There was a good correlation between the methods for adiponectin and leptin (r > 0.96). We found an increased breast cancer risk for very low adiponectin levels (HR for ELLA = 3.75; 95% CI: 1.37;10.25, p = 0.01), whereas no significant association was found for leptin levels. The disease-free survival curves were almost identical for values obtained with the two methods, for both biomarkers. The ELLA platform showed a good concordance with ELISA for adiponectin and leptin measurements. Our results support the association of very low adiponectin levels with postmenopausal breast cancer risk, irrespective of the method used. The ELLA platform is a time-saving system with high reproducibility, therefore we recommend its use for biomarker assessment.

The impact of body mass index on breast cancer incidence among women at increased risk: an observational study from the International Breast Intervention Studies.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the association between body mass index (BMI) and breast cancer risk in women at increased risk of breast cancer receiving tamoxifen or anastrozole compared with placebo using data from the International Breast Cancer Intervention Studies [IBIS-I (tamoxifen) and IBIS-II (anastrozole)]. METHODS: Baseline BMI was calculated from nurse assessed height and weight measurements for premenopausal (n = 3138) and postmenopausal (n = 3731) women in IBIS-I and postmenopausal women in IBIS-II (n = 3787). The primary endpoint was any breast cancer event (invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for risk after adjustment for covariates. RESULTS: There were 582 (IBIS-I) and 248 (IBIS-II) breast cancer events [median follow-up = 16.2 years (IQR 14.4-17.7) and 10.9 years (IQR 8.8-13.0), respectively]. In adjusted analysis, women with a higher BMI had an increased breast cancer risk in both IBIS-I [HR = 1.06 per 5 kg/m2 (0.99-1.15), p = 0.114] and in IBIS-II [HR per 5 kg/m2 = 1.21 (1.09-1.35), p < 0.001]. In IBIS-I, the association between BMI and breast cancer risk was positive in postmenopausal women [adjusted HR per 5 kg/m2 = 1.14 (1.03-1.26), p = 0.01] but not premenopausal women [adjusted HR per 5 kg/m2 = 0.97 (0.86-1.09), p = 0.628]. There was no interaction between BMI and treatment group for breast cancer risk in either IBIS-I (p = 0.62) or IBIS-II (p = 0.55). CONCLUSIONS: Higher BMI is associated with greater breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women at increased risk of the disease, but no effect was observed in premenopausal women. The lack of interaction between BMI and treatment group on breast cancer risk suggests women are likely to experience benefit from preventive therapy regardless of their BMI. Trial registration Both trials were registered [IBIS-I: ISRCTN91879928 on 24/02/2006, retrospectively registered ( http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN91879928 ); IBIS-II: ISRCTN31488319 on 07/01/2005, retrospectively registered ( http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN31488319 )].

Development and validation for research assessment of Oncotype DX® Breast Recurrence Score, EndoPredict® and Prosigna®.

Multi-gene prognostic signatures including the Oncotype® DX Recurrence Score (RS), EndoPredict® (EP) and Prosigna® (Risk Of Recurrence, ROR) are widely used to predict the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with oestrogen-receptor-positive (ER+), HER2-negative breast cancer. Here, we describe the development and validation of methods to recapitulate RS, EP and ROR scores from NanoString expression data. RNA was available from 107 tumours from postmenopausal women with early-stage, ER+, HER2- breast cancer from the translational Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination study (TransATAC) where previously these signatures had been assessed with commercial methodology. Gene expression was measured using NanoString nCounter. For RS and EP, conversion factors to adjust for cross-platform variation were estimated using linear regression. For ROR, the steps to perform subgroup-specific normalisation of the gene expression data and calibration factors to calculate the 46-gene ROR score were assessed and verified. Training with bootstrapping (n = 59) was followed by validation (n = 48) using adjusted, research use only (RUO) NanoString-based algorithms. In the validation set, there was excellent concordance between the RUO scores and their commercial counterparts (rc(RS) = 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.97 with level of agreement (LoA) of -7.69 to 8.12; rc(EP) = 0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.98 with LoA of -0.64 to 1.26 and rc(ROR) = 0.97 (95% CI 0.94-0.98) with LoA of -8.65 to 10.54). There was also a strong agreement in risk stratification: (RS: κ = 0.86, p < 0.0001; EP: κ = 0.87, p < 0.0001; ROR: κ = 0.92, p < 0.001). In conclusion, the calibrated algorithms recapitulate the commercial RS and EP scores on individual biopsies and ROR scores on samples based on subgroup-centreing method using NanoString expression data.

Off-treatment bone mineral density changes in postmenopausal women receiving anastrozole for 5 years: 7-year results from the IBIS-II prevention trial.

BACKGROUND: Anastrozole has been associated with substantial accelerated bone mineral density (BMD) loss during active treatment. METHODS: One thousand four hundred and ten women were included in a BMD substudy and stratified into three strata according to their baseline T-score at spine or femoral neck. The primary objective of this analysis was to investigate whether DXA BMD at the spine and hip changed two years after treatment cessation (between years 5 and 7) in those who did not receive risedronate. RESULTS: Five- and seven-year BMD data were available for a total of 528 women who did not receive risedronate. In women with normal BMD at baseline, an increase in BMD at the lumbar spine after anastrozole withdrawal was observed 1.25% (95% CI 0.73 to 1.77) (P = 0.0004), which was larger than in those on placebo (0.14% (-0.29 to 0.56))). At the hip, BMD remained unchanged between years 5 and 7 for those previously on anastrozole but continued to a decrease in those who had been randomised to placebo (-1.35% (-1.70 to -0.98)). CONCLUSIONS: These are the first results reporting BMD changes after stopping anastrozole in a breast cancer prevention setting. Our results show that the negative effects of anastrozole on BMD in the preventive setting are partially reversible.

Molecular Drivers of Oncotype DX, Prosigna, EndoPredict, and the Breast Cancer Index: A TransATAC Study.

PURPOSE: The Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS), Prosigna Prediction Analysis of Microarray 50 (PAM50) Risk of Recurrence (ROR), EndoPredict (EP), and Breast Cancer Index (BCI) are used clinically for estimating risk of distant recurrence for patients receiving endocrine therapy. Discordances in estimates occur between them. We aimed to identify the molecular features that drive the tests and lead to these differences. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Analyses for RS, ROR, EP, and BCI were conducted by the manufacturers in the TransATAC sample collection that consisted of the tamoxifen or anastrozole arms of the ATAC trial. Estrogen receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative cases without chemotherapy treatment were included in which all four tests were available (n = 785). Clinicopathologic features included in some tests were excluded from the comparisons. Estrogen, proliferation, invasion, and HER2 module scores from RS were used to characterize the respective molecular features. Spearman correlation and analysis of variance tests were applied. RESULTS: There were moderate to strong correlations among the four molecular scores (ρ = 0.63-0.74) except for RS versus ROR (ρ = 0.32) and RS versus BCI (ρ = 0.35). RS had strong negative correlation with its estrogen module (ρ = -0.79) and moderate positive correlation with its proliferation module (ρ = 0.36). RS's proliferation module explained 72.5% of ROR's variance, while the estrogen module explained only 0.6%. Most of EP's and BCI's variation was accounted for by the proliferation module (50.0% and 54.3%, respectively) and much less by the estrogen module (20.2% and 2.7%, respectively). CONCLUSION: In contrast to common understanding, RSs are determined more strongly by estrogen-related features and only weakly by proliferation markers. However, the EP, BCI, and particularly ROR scores are determined largely by proliferative features. These relationships help to explain the differences in the prognostic performance of the tests.

Clinical validity of clinical treatment score 5 (CTS5) for estimating risk of late recurrence in unselected, non-trial patients with early oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Clinical Treatment Score at 5 years (CTS5) is a prognostic tool to estimate distant recurrence (DR) risk after 5 years of endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with oestrogen receptor-positive (ER-positive) breast cancer. METHODS: The validity of CTS5 was tested in a retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with early ER-positive breast cancer. The primary endpoint was DR in years 5-10. The primary analysis cohort consisted of postmenopausal women, with premenopausal women as a secondary analysis cohort. Cox regression models were used to determine the prognostic value of CTS5 and Kaplan-Meier curves were used with associated 10-year DR risks (%). RESULTS: 2428 women were included with a median follow-up of 13.4 years. The CTS5 was significantly prognostic in both postmenopausal (N = 1662, HR = 2.18 95% CI (1.78-2.67)) and premenopausal women (N = 766, HR = 1.84 95% CI (1.32-2.56)). The 10-year DR risks were 2.9% (1.9-4.5), 7.2% (5.3-9.9), and 12.9% (10.0-16.7) for low, intermediate and high risk in postmenopausal women and 3.8% (2.2-6.7), 6.9% (4.4-10.8), and 11.1% (7.4-16.5) in premenopausal women, respectively. The number of observed DRs was significantly greater than expected in those predicted to be at high risk by CTS5 but this discordance was lost when those receiving more than 60 months of endocrine therapy were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: The CTS5 demonstrated clinical validity for predicting late DR within a large cohort of unselected postmenopausal patients but less so in premenopausal patients. Calibration of the CTS5 was good in patients who did not receive extended endocrine therapy. The CTS5 low-risk cohort has risk of DR so low as to not warrant extended endocrine therapy.

Tamoxifen related side effects and their impact on breast cancer incidence: A retrospective analysis of the randomised IBIS-I trial.

BACKGROUND: Studies in the adjuvant setting have shown that endocrine therapy related side effects predict breast cancer recurrence risk. Here, we assess the relationship between early reported side effects and incidence of breast cancer in women randomised to tamoxifen for cancer prevention in the International Breast Intervention Study (IBIS)-I trial. METHODS: Women randomised to tamoxifen in the IBIS-I trial and for whom side effect status was known at the 6-month follow-up visit were included in this analysis. Side effects included in this analysis were hot flushes, vaginal discharge, and vaginal dryness. The primary endpoint was all breast cancer and secondary endpoint was oestrogen receptor (ER) positive breast cancer. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate breast cancer incidence in the tamoxifen group with and without side effects reported within 6 months of randomisation. RESULTS: Women randomised to tamoxifen and reporting hot flushes at the 6-month follow-up visit had a non-statistically significant increase in breast cancer compared to those without hot flushes (HR = 1.26 (0.98-1.62), P = 0.08). A significant higher breast cancer risk was observed for postmenopausal women who reported hot flushes at the 6-month follow-up visit compared to those without hot flushes (HR = 1.59 (1.12-2.26), P = 0.01). A higher risk was observed for ER-positive breast cancer in postmenopausal women (HR = 1.81 (1.19-2.74), P = 0.01). No significant associations between gynaecological side effects and breast cancer occurrence was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, no association between side effects reported at 6 months and subsequent breast cancer occurrence was observed. Some side effects might be useful markers for breast cancer occurrence in postmenopausal women.

Prognostic Value of EndoPredict in Women with Hormone Receptor-Positive, HER2-Negative Invasive Lobular Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) accounts for approximately 5%-15% of all invasive breast cancer cases. Most of the correlations between multigene assays and patient outcome were derived from studies based on patients with invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) or without distinction between the subtypes. Here, we investigate the prognostic value of EndoPredict (EPclin) in a large cohort of ILCs pooled from three phase III randomized trials (ABCSG-6, ABCSG-8, TransATAC). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: The primary objective of this analysis was to determine the prognostic value of EPclin for distant recurrence (DR) in years 0-10 in postmenopausal women with ILC. The primary outcome was DR. RESULTS: 470 women (17.9%) presented with ILC, 1,944 (73.9%) with IDC, and 216 (8.2%) with other histologic types. EPclin was highly prognostic in women with ILC [HR = 3.32 (2.54-4.34)] and provided more prognostic value than the Clinical Treatment Score [CTS; HR = 2.17 (1.73-2.72)]. 63.4% of women were categorized into the low EPclin risk group and they had a 10-year DR of 4.8% (2.7-8.4) compared with 36.6% of women in the high-risk group with a 10-year DR risk of 26.6% (20.0-35.0). EPclin also provided highly prognostic information in women with node-negative disease [HR = 2.56 (1.63-4.02)] and node-positive disease [HR = 3.70 (2.49-5.50)]. CONCLUSIONS: EPclin provided highly significant prognostic value and significant risk stratification for women with ILC. Ten-year DR risk in the EPclin low-risk groups were similar between ILC and IDC. Our results show that EPclin is informative in women with ILC and suggest that it is equally valid in both histologic subtypes.

Use of anastrozole for breast cancer prevention (IBIS-II): long-term results of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Two large clinical trials have shown a reduced rate of breast cancer development in high-risk women in the initial 5 years of follow-up after use of aromatase inhibitors (MAP.3 and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study II [IBIS-II]). Here, we report blinded long-term follow-up results for the IBIS-II trial, which compared anastrozole with placebo, with the objective of determining the efficacy of anastrozole for preventing breast cancer (both invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ) in the post-treatment period. METHODS: IBIS-II is an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Postmenopausal women at increased risk of developing breast cancer were recruited and were randomly assigned (1:1) to either anastrozole (1 mg per day, oral) or matching placebo daily for 5 years. After treatment completion, women were followed on a yearly basis to collect data on breast cancer incidence, death, other cancers, and major adverse events (cardiovascular events and fractures). The primary outcome was all breast cancer. FINDINGS: 3864 women were recruited between Feb 2, 2003, and Jan 31, 2012. 1920 women were randomly assigned to 5 years anastrozole and 1944 to placebo. After a median follow-up of 131 months (IQR 105-156), a 49% reduction in breast cancer was observed for anastrozole (85 vs 165 cases, hazard ratio [HR] 0·51, 95% CI 0·39-0·66, p<0·0001). The reduction was larger in the first 5 years (35 vs 89, 0·39, 0·27-0·58, p<0·0001), but still significant after 5 years (50 vs 76 new cases, 0·64, 0·45-0·91, p=0·014), and not significantly different from the first 5 years (p=0·087). Invasive oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer was reduced by 54% (HR 0·46, 95% CI 0·33-0·65, p<0·0001), with a continued significant effect in the period after treatment. A 59% reduction in ductal carcinoma in situ was observed (0·41, 0·22-0·79, p=0·0081), especially in participants known to be oestrogen receptor-positive (0·22, 0·78-0·65, p<0·0001). No significant difference in deaths was observed overall (69 vs 70, HR 0·96, 95% CI 0·69-1·34, p=0·82) or for breast cancer (two anastrozole vs three placebo). A significant decrease in non-breast cancers was observed for anastrozole (147 vs 200, odds ratio 0·72, 95% CI 0·57-0·91, p=0·0042), owing primarily to non-melanoma skin cancer. No excess of fractures or cardiovascular disease was observed. INTERPRETATION: This analysis has identified a significant continuing reduction in breast cancer with anastrozole in the post-treatment follow-up period, with no evidence of new late side-effects. Further follow-up is needed to assess the effect on breast cancer mortality. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Sanofi Aventis, and AstraZeneca.

Validation of the OncoMasTR Risk Score in Estrogen Receptor-Positive/HER2-Negative Patients: A TransATAC study.

PURPOSE: To test the validity of OncoMasTR Molecular Score (OMm), OMclin1, and OncoMasTR Risk Score (OMclin2) prognostic scores for prediction of distant recurrence (DR) in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer treated with 5 years' endocrine therapy only and compare their performance with the Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: OMm incorporates three master transcription regulator genes. OMclin1 combines OMm, tumor size, grade, and nodal status; OMclin2 incorporates OMm, tumor size, and nodal status. OMclin1 and OMclin2 were evaluated for 646 postmenopausal patients with ER-positive/HER2-negative primary breast cancer with 0-3 involved lymph nodes in TransATAC. Patients were randomized to 5 years' anastrozole or tamoxifen without chemotherapy. RS was available in all cases. We used likelihood ratio-χ 2, C-index, and Kaplan-Meier analyses to assess prognostic information. RESULTS: OMm, OMclin1, and OMclin2 were highly prognostic for prediction of DR in years 0-10 among all patients [likelihood ratio (LR)-χ 2 = 25.4, 48.7, and 45.0, respectively, all P < 0.001; C-index = 0.67, 0.71, and 0.71, respectively], compared with RS (LR-χ 2 = 18.8; P < 0.001; C-index = 0.63). All three scores provided significant additional prognostic value beyond clinical treatment score, Nottingham Prognostic Index, and Ki67. OMclin1 and OMclin2 categorized 190 and 267 node-negative patients as low risk (DR rates: 2.9% and 4.9%, respectively). In comparison, RS categorized 296 node-negative patients as low-risk and 128 patients as intermediate-risk (DR rate: 6.6% and 17.3%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: OMm, OMclin1, and OMclin2 were highly prognostic for early and late DR in women with early-stage ER-positive breast cancer receiving 5 years' endocrine therapy. In TransATAC, OMclin1 and the OncoMasTR Risk Score (OMclin2) were superior to RS in identifying patients at increased risk of DR.

Prediction of chemotherapy benefit by EndoPredict in patients with breast cancer who received adjuvant endocrine therapy plus chemotherapy or endocrine therapy alone.

PURPOSE: EndoPredict (EPclin) is a prognostic test validated to inform decisions on adjuvant chemotherapy to endocrine therapy alone for patients with oestrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. Here, we determine the performance of EPclin for estimating 10-year distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI) rates for those who received adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) alone compared to those with chemotherapy plus endocrine therapy (ET + C). METHODS: A total of 3746 women were included in this joint analysis. 2630 patients received 5 years of ET alone (ABCSG-6/8, TransATAC) and 1116 patients received ET + C (GEICAM 2003-02/9906). The primary objective was to evaluate the ability of EPclin to provide an estimate of the 10-year DR rate as a continuous function of EPclin separately for ET alone and ET + C. Cox proportional hazard models were used for these analyses. RESULTS: EPclin was highly prognostic for DR in women who received ET alone (HR 2.79 (2.49-3.13), P < 0.0001) as well as in those who received ET + C (HR 2.27 (1.99-2.59), P < 0.0001). Women who received ET + C had significantly smaller increases in 10-year DR rates with the increasing EPclin score than those receiving ET alone (EPclin = 5; 12% ET + C vs. 20% ET alone). We observed a significant positive interaction between EPclin and treatment groups (P-interaction = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS: In this comparative non-randomised analysis, the rate of increase in DR with EPclin score was significantly reduced in women who received ET + C versus ET alone. Our indirect comparisons suggest that a high EPclin score can predict chemotherapy benefit in women with ER-positive, HER2-negative disease.

Comparison of risedronate versus placebo in preventing anastrozole-induced bone loss in women at high risk of developing breast cancer with osteopenia.

Anastrozole has been shown to prevent breast cancer in postmenopausal women at high risk of the disease, but has been associated with substantial accelerated loss of bone mineral density (BMD) and increased fractures. Here, we investigate the effect of risedronate on BMD after 5 years of follow-up in the IBIS-II prevention trial. 1410 women were enrolled in the bone sub-study and stratified into three strata according to the lowest baseline T-score at spine or femoral neck. The objective was to compare the effect of oral risedronate (35 mg weekly) versus placebo in osteopenic women in stratum II who were randomised to anastrozole in the main study. 258 osteopenic, postmenopausal women at high risk of developing breast cancer for whom baseline and follow-up bone mineral density measurements were available. 5-year mean BMD change at the lumbar spine for osteopenic women randomised to anastrozole and risedronate was -0.4% compared to -4.2% for those not on risedronate (P < 0.0001) but not significantly different between risedronate users and non-users at the hip (P = 0.2). 5-year mean PINP change was -20% for those randomised to anastrozole and risedronate compared to 3% for those not on risedronate but on anastrozole (P < 0.0001). Our results confirm the bone loss associated with the use of anastrozole and show that anastrozole-induced BMD loss in the spine can be controlled with risedronate treatment. However, our results suggest that weekly oral risedronate is unable to completely prevent anastrozole induced bone loss at the hip.

Risk stratification in early breast cancer in premenopausal and postmenopausal women: integrating genomic assays with clinicopathological features.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: There is growing consensus that genomic assays provide useful complementary information to clinicopathological features in oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancers. Here, ongoing research with multigene tests used for postmenopausal breast cancer and new emerging prognostic and predictive markers for pre and postmenopausal women are summarised. RECENT FINDINGS: Results of the TAILORx trial have shown that women with an intermediate risk score do not benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. Prosgina has been further investigated in a contemporary patient population in postmenopausal women and its use has been extended for premenopausal women. The EndoPredict was extensively used in decision-impact studies showing that its use can potentially reduce the need for adjuvant chemotherapy. Several new genomic assays have been developed, with some of them showing promising use for women with early oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. SUMMARY: New areas of research for prediction of recurrence and risk stratification involve the development of immune gene signatures that carry modest but significant prognostic value. The recent expansion of high-throughput technology platforms including circulating tumour DNA/RNA and microRNA offer new opportunities to improve prediction models, particularly in women with oestrogen receptor-negative disease and premenopausal women. Genomic assays have clearly improved prognostication of early oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer but it is clear that standard clinicopathological parameters are still very important when identifying patient for adjuvant chemotherapy.

Novel 18-gene signature for predicting relapse in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Several prognostic signatures for early oestrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer have been established with a 10-year follow-up. We tested the hypothesis that signatures optimised for 0-5-year and 5-10-year follow-up separately are more prognostic than a single signature optimised for 10 years. METHODS: Genes previously identified as prognostic or associated with endocrine resistance were tested in publicly available microarray data set using Cox regression of 747 ER+/HER2- samples from post-menopausal patients treated with 5 years of endocrine therapy. RNA expression of the selected genes was assayed in primary ER+/HER2- tumours from 948 post-menopausal patients treated with 5 years of anastrozole or tamoxifen in the TransATAC cohort. Prognostic signatures for 0-10, 0-5 and 5-10 years were derived using a penalised Cox regression (elastic net). Signature comparison was performed with likelihood ratio statistics. Validation was done by a case-control (POLAR) study in 422 samples derived from a cohort of 1449. RESULTS: Ninety-three genes were selected by the modelling of microarray data; 63 of these were significantly prognostic in TransATAC, most similarly across each time period. Contrary to our hypothesis, the derived early and late signatures were not significantly more prognostic than the 18-gene 10-year signature. The 18-gene 10-year signature was internally validated in the TransATAC validation set, showing prognostic information similar to that of Oncotype DX Recurrence Score, PAM50 risk of recurrence score, Breast Cancer Index and IHC4 (score based on four IHC markers), as well as in the external POLAR case-control set. CONCLUSIONS: The derived 10-year signature predicts risk of metastasis in patients with ER+/HER2- breast cancer similar to commercial signatures. The hypothesis that early and late prognostic signatures are significantly more informative than a single signature was rejected.

Integration of Clinical Variables for the Prediction of Late Distant Recurrence in Patients With Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer Treated With 5 Years of Endocrine Therapy: CTS5.

Purpose Estimating risk of late distant recurrence (DR) is an important goal for managing women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer after 5 years of endocrine treatment without recurrence. We developed and validated a simple clinicopathologic tool (Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years [CTS5]) to estimate residual risk of DR after 5 years of endocrine treatment. Patients and Methods The ATAC (Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination) data set (N = 4,735) was used to create a prognostic score for post-5-year risk of DR. Validity of CTS5 (ATAC) was tested in the BIG 1-98 data set (N = 6,711). Time to late DR, 5 years after finishing scheduled endocrine therapy, was the primary end point. Cox regression models estimated the prognostic performance of CTS5 (ATAC). Results CTS5 (ATAC) was significantly prognostic for late DR in the ATAC cohort (hazard ratio, 2.47; 95% CI, 2.24 to 2.73; P < .001) and BIG 1-98 validation cohort (hazard ratio, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.88 to 2.28; P < .001). CTS5 (ATAC) risk stratification defined in the training cohort as low (< 5% DR risk, years 5 to 10), intermediate (5% to 10%), or high (> 10%) identified 43% of the validation cohort as low risk, with an observed DR rate of 3.6% (95% CI, 2.7% to 4.9%) during years 5 to 10. From years 5 to 10, 63% of node-negative patients were low risk, with a DR rate of 3.9% (95% CI, 2.9% to 5.3%), and 24% with one to three positive nodes were low risk, with a DR rate of 1.5% (95% CI, 0.5% to 3.8%). A final CTS5 for future use was derived from pooled data from ATAC and BIG 1-98. Conclusion CTS5 is a simple tool based on information that is readily available to all clinicians. CTS5 was validated as highly prognostic for late DR in the independent BIG 1-98 study. The final CTS5 algorithm identified 42% of women with < 1% per-year risk of DR who could be advised of the limited potential value of extended endocrine therapy.

Comparison of the Performance of 6 Prognostic Signatures for Estrogen Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Multiple molecular signatures are available for managing estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer but with little direct comparative information to guide the patient's choice. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a within-patient comparison of the prognostic value of 6 multigene signatures in women with early ER-positive breast cancer who received endocrine therapy for 5 years. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective biomarker analysis included 774 postmenopausal women with ER-positive ERBB2 (formerly HER2)-negative breast cancer. This analysis was performed as a preplanned secondary study of data from the Anastrozole or Tamoxifen Alone or Combined randomized clinical trial comparing 5-year treatment with anastrozole vs tamoxifen with 10-year follow-up data. The signatures included the Oncotype Dx recurrence score, PAM50-based Prosigna risk of recurrence (ROR), Breast Cancer Index (BCI), EndoPredict (EPclin), Clinical Treatment Score, and 4-marker immunohistochemical score. Data were collected from January 2009, through April 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary objective was to compare the prognostic value of these signatures in addition to the Clinical Treatment Score (nodal status, tumor size, grade, age, and endocrine treatment) for distant recurrence for 0 to 10 years and 5 to 10 years after diagnosis. Likelihood ratio (LR) statistics were used with the χ2 test and C indexes to assess the prognostic value of each signature. RESULTS: In this study of 774 postmenopausal women with ER-positive, ERBB2-negative disease (mean [SD] age, 64.1 [8.1] years), 591 (mean [SD] age, 63.4 [7.9] years) had node-negative disease. The signatures providing the most prognostic information were the ROR (hazard ratio [HR], 2.56; 95% CI, 1.96-3.35), followed by the BCI (HR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.88-3.23) and EPclin (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.71-2.68). Each provided significantly more information than the Clinical Treatment Score (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.58-2.50), the recurrence score (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.40-2.03), and the 4-marker immunohistochemical score (HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.55-2.45). Substantially less information was provided by all 6 molecular tests for the 183 patients with 1 to 3 positive nodes, but the BCI (ΔLR χ2 = 9.2) and EPclin (ΔLR χ2 = 7.4) provided more additional prognostic information than the other signatures. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: For women with node-negative disease, the ROR, BCI, and EPclin were significantly more prognostic for overall and late distant recurrence. For women with 1 to 3 positive nodes, limited independent information was available from any test. These data might help oncologists and patients to choose the most appropriate test when considering chemotherapy use and/or extended endocrine therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: isrctn.com Identifier: ISRCTN18233230.

Relevance of Spatial Heterogeneity of Immune Infiltration for Predicting Risk of Recurrence After Endocrine Therapy of ER+ Breast Cancer.

Background: Despite increasing evidence supporting the clinical utility of immune infiltration in the estrogen receptor-negative (ER-) subtype, the prognostic value of immune infiltration for ER+ disease is not well defined. Methods: Quantitative immune scores of cell abundance and spatial heterogeneity were computed using a fully automated hematoxylin and eosin-stained image analysis algorithm and spatial statistics for 1178 postmenopausal patients with ER+ breast cancer treated with five years' tamoxifen or anastrozole. The prognostic significance of immune scores was compared with Oncotype DX 21-gene recurrence score (RS), PAM50 risk of recurrence (ROR) score, IHC4, and clinical treatment score, available for 963 patients. Statistical tests were two-sided. Results: Scores of immune cell abundance were not associated with recurrence-free survival. In contrast, high immune spatial scores indicating increased cell spatial clustering were associated with poor 10-year, early (0-5 years), and late (5-10 years) recurrence-free survival (Immune Hotspot: LR-χ2 = 14.06, P < .001, for 0-10 years; LR-χ2 = 6.24, P = .01, for 0-5 years; LR-χ2 = 7.89, P = .005, for 5-10 years). The prognostic value of spatial scores for late recurrence was similar to that of IHC4 and RS in both populations, but was not as strong as other tests in comparison for recurrence across 10 years. Conclusions: These results provide a missing link between tumor immunity and disease outcome in ER+ disease by examining tumor spatial architecture. The association between spatial scores and late recurrence suggests a lasting memory of protumor immunity that may impact disease progression and evolution of endocrine treatment resistance, which may be exploited for therapeutic advances.