Eat or be eaten: Implications of potential exploitative competition between wolves and humans across predator-savvy and predator-naive deer populations.

Recolonization of predators to their former ranges is becoming increasingly prevalent. Such recolonization places predators among their prey once again; the latter having lived without predation (from such predators) for a considerable time. This renewed coexistence creates opportunities to explore predation ecology at both fundamental and applied levels. We used a paired experimental design to investigate white-tailed deer risk allocation in the Upper and Lower Peninsulas (UP and LP) in Michigan, USA. Wolves are functionally absent in the LP, while deer in the UP coexist with a re-established wolf population. We treated 15 sites each in UP and LP with wolf olfactory cues and observed deer vigilance, activity, and visitation rates at the interface of habitat covariates using remote cameras. Such a paired design across wolf versus no-wolf areas allowed us to examine indirect predation effects while accounting for confounding parameters such as the presence of other predators and human activity. While wolf urine had no effect across most metrics in both UP and LP, we observed differences in deer activity in areas with versus without wolves. Sites treated with wolf urine in the UP showed a reduction in crepuscular deer activity, compared to control/novel-scent treated sites. Furthermore, we observed a strong positive effect of vegetation cover on deer vigilance in these sites. This indicates that simulated predator cues likely affect deer vigilance more acutely in denser habitats, which presumably facilitates predation success. Such responses were however absent among deer in the LP that are presumably naïve toward wolf predation. Where human and non-human predators hunt shared prey, such as in Michigan, predators may constrain human hunting success by increasing deer vigilance. Hunters may avoid such exploitative competition by choosing hunting/bait sites located in open areas. Our results pertaining to fundamental predation ecology have strong applied implications that can promote human-predator coexistence.

Refining the moose serum progesterone threshold to diagnose pregnancy.

Pregnancy determination is necessary for sound wildlife management and understanding population dynamics. Pregnancy rates are sensitive to environmental and physiological factors and may indicate the overall trajectory of a population. Pregnancy can be assessed through direct methods (rectal palpation, sonography) or indicated using hormonal assays (serum progesterone or pregnancy-specific protein B, fecal progestogen metabolites). A commonly used threshold of 2 ng/ml of progesterone in serum has been used by moose biologists to indicate pregnancy but has not been rigorously investigated. To refine this threshold, we examined the relationship between progesterone concentrations in serum samples and pregnancy in 87 moose (Alces alces; 64 female, 23 male) captured from 2010 to 2020 in the Grand Portage Indian Reservation in northeastern Minnesota, USA. Pregnancy was confirmed via rectal palpation (n = 25), necropsy (n = 2), calf observation (n = 25) or characteristic pre-calving behavior (n = 6), with a total of 58 females determined pregnant and 6 not pregnant; 23 males were included to increase the non-pregnant sample size. Using receiver operating characteristic analysis, we identified an optimal threshold of 1.115 ng/ml with a specificity of 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.90-1.00) and a sensitivity of 0.98 (95% CI = 0.95-1.00). Progesterone concentrations were significantly higher in cases of pregnant versus non-pregnant cows, but we did not detect a difference between single and twin births. We applied our newly refined threshold to calculate annual pregnancy rates for all female moose (n = 133) captured in Grand Portage from 2010 to 2021. Mean pregnancy rate during this period was 91% and ranged annually from 69.2 to 100%. Developing a reliable method for determining pregnancy status via serum progesterone analyses will allow wildlife managers to assess pregnancy rates of moose without devoting substantial time and resources to palpation and calf monitoring.

Statistical population reconstruction of moose (Alces alces) in northeastern Minnesota using integrated population models.

Given recent and abrupt declines in the abundance of moose (Alces alces) throughout parts of Minnesota and elsewhere in North America, accurately estimating statewide population trends and demographic parameters is a high priority for their continued management and conservation. Statistical population reconstruction using integrated population models provides a flexible framework for combining information from multiple studies to produce robust estimates of population abundance, recruitment, and survival. We used this framework to combine aerial survey data and survival data from telemetry studies to recreate trends and demographics of moose in northeastern Minnesota, USA, from 2005 to 2020. Statistical population reconstruction confirmed the sharp decline in abundance from an estimated 7,841 (90% CI = 6,702-8,933) in 2009 to 3,386 (90% CI = 2,681-4,243) animals in 2013, but also indicated that abundance has remained relatively stable since then, except for a slight decline to 3,163 (90% CI = 2,403-3,718) in 2020. Subsequent stochastic projection of the population from 2021 to 2030 suggests that this modest decline will continue for the next 10 years. Both annual adult survival and per-capita recruitment (number of calves that survived to 1 year per adult female alive during the previous year) decreased substantially in years 2005 and 2019, from 0.902 (SE = 0.043) to 0.689 (SE = 0.061) and from 0.386 (SE = 0.030) to 0.303 (SE = 0.051), respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that moose abundance was more sensitive to fluctuations in adult survival than recruitment; thus, we conclude that the steep decline in 2013 was driven primarily by decreasing adult survival. Our analysis demonstrates the potential utility of using statistical population reconstruction to monitor moose population trends and to identify population declines more quickly. Future studies should focus on providing better estimates of per-capita recruitment, using pregnancy rates and calf survival, which can then be incorporated into reconstruction models to help improve estimates of population change through time.

Influence of infrastructure, ecology, and underpass-dimensions on multi-year use of Standard Gauge Railway underpasses by mammals in Tsavo, Kenya.

Rail and road infrastructure is essential for economic growth and development but can cause a gradual loss in biodiversity and degradation of ecosystem function and services. We assessed the influence of underpass dimensions, fencing, proximity to water and roads, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), presence of other species and livestock on underpass use by large and medium-sized mammals. Results revealed hyenas and leopards used the underpasses more than expected whereas giraffes and antelopes used the underpasses less than expected. Generalized linear mixed-effects models revealed that underpass height influenced use by wildlife, with several species preferring to use taller underpasses. Electric fencing increased underpass use by funneling species towards underpasses, except for elephants and black-backed jackal for which it reduced underpass passage. We also found that the use of underpasses by livestock reduced the probability of use by nearly 50% for wildlife species. Carnivore species were more likely to cross underpasses used by their prey. Buffalo, livestock, and hyenas used underpasses characterized by vegetation with higher NDVI and near water sources while baboons, dik-diks and antelope avoided underpasses with high NDVI. Our findings suggest a need for diverse and comprehensive approaches for mitigating the negative impacts of rail on African wildlife.

Spatial compartmentalization: A nonlethal predator mechanism to reduce parasite transmission between prey species.

Predators can modulate disease transmission within prey populations by influencing prey demography and behavior. Predator-prey dynamics can involve multiple species in heterogeneous landscapes; however, studies of predation on disease transmission rarely consider the role of landscapes or the transmission among diverse prey species (i.e., spillover). We used high-resolution habitat and movement data to model spillover risk of the brainworm parasite (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis) between two prey species [white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and moose (Alces alces)], accounting for predator [gray wolf (Canis lupus)] presence and landscape configuration. Results revealed that spring migratory movements of cervid hosts increased parasite spillover risk from deer to moose, an effect tempered by changes in elevation, land cover, and wolf presence. Wolves induced host-species segregation, a nonlethal mechanism that modulated disease emergence by reducing spatiotemporal overlap between infected and susceptible prey, showing that wildlife disease dynamics may change with landscape disturbance and the loss of large carnivores.

Wildlife roadkill in the Tsavo Ecosystem, Kenya: identifying hotspots, potential drivers, and affected species.

Roadkill is one of the highest causes of wildlife mortality and is of global conservation concern. Most roadkill studies have focused on wildlife in developed countries such as the United States of America and temperate biomes, but there are limited data for the impacts of roads on wildlife in the African tropics, where road infrastructure development is projected to grow rapidly in natural environments and conservation areas. The Tsavo Conservation Area is an important biodiversity hotspot in eastern Kenya and is bisected by a major highway and railways that connect the port of Mombasa to the interior. Along this infrastructure corridor, roadkill was recorded for 164 days over an 11-year period (2007-2018). In total, 1,436 roadkill were recorded from 13,008 km driven of a 164.42 km Nairobi-Mombasa road representing 0.11 collisions per kilometer. The majority of roadkill were small to medium sized mammals (<15kg) (53%; n = 756), whereas birds comprised 32% (n = 460), reptiles 10% (n = 143), with the remaining 5% (n = 77) being large mammals (>15kg). Of the 460 birds recorded, 264 were identifiable represented by 62 species. All large mammals comprising 10 species were identified, including the African elephant, Loxodonta africana and the endangered African wild dog, Lycaon pictus. Thirteen species of small mammal were also identified dominated by Kirk's dik-dik (Madoqua kirkii). Reptiles were represented by 11 species which were identified to the species level. Roadkill hotspots were identified using a kernel density method. The spatial distribution of roadkill was associated with adjacent shrub vegetation and proximity to permanent and seasonal rivers, and differences in seasonality and habitats were observed. Roadkill was lowest on road sections that traversed settled areas as opposed to roads adjacent to the protected areas. The results demonstrate that roadkill for two of the taxonomic groups - mammals and birds - appear high with numerous species detected in the Tsavo Conservation Area. These results can be used to focus efforts to reduce wildlife mortality by guiding future mitigation efforts.

Comparing survey and multiple recruitment-mortality models to assess growth rates and population projections.

Estimation of population trends and demographic parameters is important to our understanding of fundamental ecology and species management, yet these data are often difficult to obtain without the use of data from population surveys or marking animals. The northeastern Minnesota moose (Alces alces Linnaeus, 1758) population declined 58% during 2006-2017, yet aerial surveys indicated stability during 2012-2017. In response to the decline, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) initiated studies of adult and calf survival to better understand cause-specific mortality, calf recruitment, and factors influencing the population trajectory. We estimated population growth rate (λ) using adult survival and calf recruitment data from demographic studies and the recruitment-mortality (R-M) Equation and compared these estimates to those calculated using data from aerial surveys. We then projected population dynamics 50 years using each resulting λ and used a stochastic model to project population dynamics 30 years using data from the MNDNR's studies. Calculations of λ derived from 2012 to 2017 survey data, and the R-M Equation indicated growth (1.02 ± 0.16 [SE] and 1.01 ± 0.04, respectively). However, the stochastic model indicated a decline in the population over 30 years (λ = 0.91 ± 0.004; 2014-2044). The R-M Equation has utility for estimating λ, and the supporting information from demographic collaring studies also helps to better address management questions. Furthermore, estimates of λ calculated using collaring data were more certain and reflective of current conditions. Long-term monitoring using collars would better inform population performance predictions and demographic responses to environmental variability.

Potential Vertical Transmission of Winter Ticks (Dermacentor albipictus) from Moose (Alces americanus) Dams to Neonates.

North American moose (Alces americanus) frequently become infested with winter ticks (Dermacentor albipictus). During capture of neonatal moose in northeastern Minnesota, US, in May-June 2013 and 2014, we recovered adult ticks from neonates, presumably vertically transferred from dams, heretofore, not documented. Infestations on neonates may have population-level implications.