Health impact assessment for air pollution in the presence of regional variation in effect sizes: The implications of using different meta-analytic approaches.

The estimated health effects of air pollution vary between studies, and this variation is caused by factors associated with the study location, hereafter termed regional heterogeneity. This heterogeneity raises a methodological question as to which studies should be used to estimate risks in a specific region in a health impact assessment. Should one use all studies across the world, or only those in the region of interest? The current study provides novel insight into this question in two ways. Firstly, it presents an up-to-date analysis examining the magnitude of continent-level regional heterogeneity in the short-term health effects of air pollution, using a database of studies collected by Orellano et al. (2020). Secondly, it provides in-depth simulation analyses examining whether existing meta-analyses are likely to be underpowered to identify statistically significant regional heterogeneity, as well as evaluating which meta-analytic technique is best for estimating region-specific estimates. The techniques considered include global and continent-specific (sub-group) random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression, with omnibus statistical tests used to quantify regional heterogeneity. We find statistically significant regional heterogeneity for 4 of the 8 pollutant-outcome pairs considered, comprising NO2, O3 and PM2.5 with all-cause mortality, and PM2.5 with cardiovascular mortality. From the simulation analysis statistically significant regional heterogeneity is more likely to be identified as the number of studies increases (between 3 and 30 in each region were considered), between region heterogeneity increases and within region heterogeneity decreases. Finally, while a sub-group analysis using Cochran's Q test has a higher median power (0.71) than a test based on the moderators' coefficients from meta-regression (0.59) to identify regional heterogeneity, it also has an inflated type-1 error leading to more false positives (median errors of 0.15 compared to 0.09).

A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics.

A large evidence base demonstrates that the outcomes of COVID-19 and national and local interventions are not distributed equally across different communities. The need to inform policies and mitigation measures aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19 highlights the need to understand the complex links between our daily activities and COVID-19 transmission that reflect the characteristics of British society. As a result of a partnership between academic and private sector researchers, we introduce a novel data driven modelling framework together with a computationally efficient approach to running complex simulation models of this type. We demonstrate the power and spatial flexibility of the framework to assess the effects of different interventions in a case study where the effects of the first UK national lockdown are estimated for the county of Devon. Here we find that an earlier lockdown is estimated to result in a lower peak in COVID-19 cases and 47% fewer infections overall during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The framework we outline here will be crucial in gaining a greater understanding of the effects of policy interventions in different areas and within different populations.

Area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases: The impact of government policy in England.

This paper aims to understand the relationship between area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases in England in response to government policy throughout 2020. The response variable is monthly reported COVID-19 cases at the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) level by Public Health England, with Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), ethnicity (percentage of the population across 5 ethnicity categories) and the percentage of the population older than 70 years old and time as predictors. A GEE population-averaged panel-data model was employed to model trends in monthly COVID-19 cases with the population of each MSOA included as the exposure variable. Area level deprivation is significantly associated with COVID-19 cases from March 2020; however, this relationship is reversed in December 2020. Follow up analysis found that this reversal was maintained when controlling for the novel COVID-19 variant outbreak in the South East of England. This analysis indicates that changes in the role of deprivation and monthly reported COVID-19 over time cases may be linked to two government policies: (1) the premature easing of national restrictions in July 2020 when cases were still high in the most deprived areas in England and (2) the introduction of a regional tiered system in October predominantly in the North of England. The analysis adds to the evidence showing that deprivation is a key driver of COVID-19 outcomes and highlights the unintended negative impact of government policy.

Staying Ahead of the Epidemiologic Curve: Evaluation of the British Columbia Asthma Prediction System (BCAPS) During the Unprecedented 2018 Wildfire Season.

Background: The modular British Columbia Asthma Prediction System (BCAPS) is designed to reduce information burden during wildfire smoke events by automatically gathering, integrating, generating, and visualizing data for public health users. The BCAPS framework comprises five flexible and geographically scalable modules: (1) historic data on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations; (2) historic data on relevant health indicator counts; (3) PM2.5 forecasts for the upcoming days; (4) a health forecasting model that uses the relationship between (1) and (2) to predict the impacts of (3); and (5) a reporting mechanism. Methods: The 2018 wildfire season was the most extreme in British Columbia history. Every morning BCAPS generated forecasts of salbutamol sulfate (e.g., Ventolin) inhaler dispensations for the upcoming days in 16 Health Service Delivery Areas (HSDAs) using random forest machine learning. These forecasts were compared with observations over a 63-day study period using different methods including the index of agreement (IOA), which ranges from 0 (no agreement) to 1 (perfect agreement). Some observations were compared with the same period in the milder wildfire season of 2016 for context. Results: The mean province-wide population-weighted PM2.5 concentration over the study period was 22.0 µg/m3, compared with 4.2 µg/m3 during the milder wildfire season of 2016. The PM2.5 forecasts underpredicted the severe smoke impacts, but the IOA was relatively strong with a population-weighted average of 0.85, ranging from 0.65 to 0.95 among the HSDAs. Inhaler dispensations increased by 30% over 2016 values. Forecasted dispensations were within 20% of the observed value in 71% of cases, and the IOA was strong with a population-weighted average of 0.95, ranging from 0.92 to 0.98. All measures of agreement were correlated with HSDA population, where BCAPS performance was better in the larger populations with more moderate smoke impacts. The accuracy of the health forecasts was partially dependent on the accuracy of the PM2.5 forecasts, but they were robust to over- and underpredictions of PM2.5 exposure. Conclusions: Daily reports from the BCAPS framework provided timely and reasonable insight into the population health impacts of predicted smoke exposures, though more work is necessary to improve the PM2.5 and health indicator forecasts.

A critical review of the epidemiological evidence of effects of air pollution on dementia, cognitive function and cognitive decline in adult population.

Dementia is arguably the most pressing public health challenge of our age. Since dementia does not have a cure, identifying risk factors that can be controlled has become paramount to reduce the personal, societal and economic burden of dementia. The relationship between exposure to air pollution and effects on cognitive function, cognitive decline and dementia has stimulated increasing scientific interest in the past few years. This review of the literature critically examines the available epidemiological evidence of associations between exposure to ambient air pollutants, cognitive performance, acceleration of cognitive decline, risk of developing dementia, neuroimaging and neurological biomarker studies, following Bradford Hill guidelines for causality. The evidence reviewed has been consistent in reporting associations between chronic exposure to air pollution and reduced global cognition, as well as impairment in specific cognitive domains including visuo-spatial abilities. Cognitive decline and dementia incidence have also been consistently associated with exposure to air pollution. The neuro-imaging studies reviewed report associations between exposure to air pollution and white matter volume reduction. Other reported effects include reduction in gray matter, larger ventricular volume, and smaller corpus callosum. Findings relating to ischemic (white matter hyperintensities/silent cerebral infarcts) and hemorrhagic (cerebral microbleeds) markers of cerebral small vessel disease have been heterogeneous, as have observations on hippocampal volume and air pollution. The few studies available on neuro-inflammation tend to report associations with exposure to air pollution. Several effect modifiers have been suggested in the literature, but more replication studies are required. Traditional confounding factors have been controlled or adjusted for in most of the reviewed studies. Additional confounding factors have also been considered, but the inclusion of these has varied among the different studies. Despite all the efforts to adjust for confounding factors, residual confounding cannot be completely ruled out, especially since the factors affecting cognition and dementia are not yet fully understood. The available evidence meets many of the Bradford Hill guidelines for causality. The reported associations between a range of air pollutants and effects on cognitive function in older people, including the acceleration of cognitive decline and the induction of dementia, are likely to be causal in nature. However, the diversity of study designs, air pollutants and endpoints examined precludes the attribution of these adverse effects to a single class of pollutant and makes meta-analysis inappropriate.

Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor Monotherapy Versus Combination Therapy for the Treatment of Psoriatic Arthritis: Combined Analysis of European Biologics Databases.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) combination therapy with conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARD) is more effective for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and/or improves TNFi drug survival compared to TNFi monotherapy. METHODS: Five PsA biologics cohorts were investigated between 2000 and 2015: the ATTRA registry (Czech Republic); the Swiss Clinical Quality Management PsA registry; the Hellenic Registry of Biologics Therapies (Greece); the University of Bari PsA biologics database (Italy); and the Bath PsA cohort (UK). Drug persistence was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and equality of survival using log-rank tests. Comparative effectiveness was investigated using logistic regression with propensity scores. Separate analyses were performed on (1) the combined Italian/Swiss cohorts for change in rate of Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28); and (2) the combined Italian, Swiss, and Bath cohorts for change in rate of Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). RESULTS: In total, 2294 patients were eligible for the drug survival analysis. In the Swiss (P = 0.002), Greek (P = 0.021), and Bath (P = 0.014) databases, patients starting TNFi in combination with methotrexate had longer drug survival compared to monotherapy, while in Italy the monotherapy group persisted longer (P = 0.030). In eligible patients from the combined Italian/Swiss dataset (n = 1056), there was no significant difference between treatment arms in rate of change of DAS28. Similarly, when also including the Bath cohort (n = 1205), there was no significant difference in rate of change of HAQ. CONCLUSION: Combination therapy of a TNFi with a csDMARD does not appear to affect improvement of disease activity or HAQ versus TNFi monotherapy, but it may improve TNFi drug survival.

Dietary shifts can reduce premature deaths related to particulate matter pollution in China.

Shifting towards more meat-intensive diets may have indirect health consequences through environmental degradation. Here we examine how trends in dietary patterns in China over 1980-2010 have worsened fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, thereby inducing indirect health impacts. We show that changes in dietary composition alone, mainly by driving the rising demands for meat and animal feed, have enhanced ammonia (NH3) emissions from Chinese agriculture by 63% and increased annual PM2.5 by up to ~10 µg m-3 (~20% of total PM2.5 increase) over the period. Such effects are more than double that driven by increased food production solely due to population growth. Shifting the current diet towards a less meat-intensive recommended diet can decrease NH3 emission by ~17% and PM2.5 by 2-6 µg m-3, and avoid ~75,000 Chinese annual premature deaths related to PM2.5.

Risk of Osteoarthritis in an Incident Cohort of People With Psoriatic Arthritis: A Population-based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk of a diagnosis of osteoarthritis (OA) in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) compared to patients with psoriasis and a general population cohort. METHODS: Incident PsA patients aged 18-89 years at diagnosis were identified from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1998 and 2014. All patients with PsA were matched to 2 cohorts of patients, both at a 1:4 ratio. The first cohort included patients with psoriasis (and no PsA) and the second was a general population cohort (with no psoriasis or PsA). The baseline prevalence of OA was calculated for each study cohort. The incidence of OA was calculated, and adjusted relative risks (RRadj) were calculated using conditional Poisson regression. RESULTS: We identified 6783 incident PsA patients. The baseline prevalence of OA ranged from 22.1% (95% CI 21.1-23.1) in the PsA cohort to 12.6% (95% CI 12.2-13.0) and 11.0% (95% CI 10.6-11.3) in the psoriasis and general population cohorts, respectively. The incidence of OA was significantly higher in the PsA cohort compared to the psoriasis and general population cohorts after adjusting for BMI (RRadj 1.68, 95% CI 1.46-1.93, and RRadj 1.86, 95% CI 1.62-2.14, respectively). CONCLUSION: An increased risk of OA was observed in patients with PsA compared to patients with psoriasis alone and those in the general population. Further work is needed to determine whether this reflects a true increase in OA risk or misdiagnosed PsA, and the extent to which it can be explained by differences in the opportunity for OA diagnosis between cohorts.

Electric field and air ion exposures near high voltage overhead power lines and adult cancers: a case control study across England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Various mechanisms have been postulated to explain how electric fields emitted by high voltage overhead power lines, and the charged ions they produce, might be associated with possible adult cancer risk, but this has not previously been systematically explored in large scale epidemiological research. METHODS: We investigated risks of adult cancers in relation to modelled air ion density (per cm3) within 600 m (focusing analysis on mouth, lung, respiratory), and calculated electric field within 25 m (focusing analysis on non-melanoma skin), of high voltage overhead power lines in England and Wales, 1974-2008. RESULTS: With adjustment for age, sex, deprivation and rurality, odds ratios (OR) in the highest fifth of net air ion density (0.504-1) compared with the lowest (0-0.1879) ranged from 0.94 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-1.08] for mouth cancers to 1.03 (95% CI 0.97-1.09) for respiratory system cancers, with no trends in risk. The pattern of cancer risk was similar using corona ion estimates from an alternative model proposed by others. For keratinocyte carcinoma, adjusted OR in the highest (1.06-4.11 kV/m) compared with the lowest (<0.70 kV/m) thirds of electric field strength was 1.23 (95% CI 0.65-2.34), with no trend in risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our results do not provide evidence to support hypotheses that air ion density or electric fields in the vicinity of power lines are associated with cancer risk in adults.

Advances in spatiotemporal models for non-communicable disease surveillance.

Surveillance systems are commonly used to provide early warning detection or to assess an impact of an intervention/policy. Traditionally, the methodological and conceptual frameworks for surveillance have been designed for infectious diseases, but the rising burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) worldwide suggests a pressing need for surveillance strategies to detect unusual patterns in the data and to help unveil important risk factors in this setting. Surveillance methods need to be able to detect meaningful departures from expectation and exploit dependencies within such data to produce unbiased estimates of risk as well as future forecasts. This has led to the increasing development of a range of space-time methods specifically designed for NCD surveillance. We present an overview of recent advances in spatiotemporal disease surveillance for NCDs, using hierarchically specified models. This provides a coherent framework for modelling complex data structures, dealing with data sparsity, exploiting dependencies between data sources and propagating the inherent uncertainties present in both the data and the modelling process. We then focus on three commonly used models within the Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) framework and, through a simulation study, we compare their performance. We also discuss some challenges faced by researchers when dealing with NCD surveillance, including how to account for false detection and the modifiable areal unit problem. Finally, we consider how to use and interpret the complex models, how model selection may vary depending on the intended user group and how best to communicate results to stakeholders and the general public.

Early response to anti-TNF predicts long-term outcomes including sustained remission: an analysis of the BSRBR-RA.

OBJECTIVE: To identify different trajectories of disease activity in patients with RA following initiation of a first anti-TNF. METHODS: Patients with RA starting their first anti-TNF between 2001 and 2013 were selected from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for RA. Six-monthly DAS28-ESR scores were used to identify trajectories of disease activity using latent class modelling. Data were included for six follow-ups after registration (approximately 3 years). Subgroup analysis examined changes in disease activity profiles over time. RESULTS: A total of 14 436 patients with RA starting their first anti-TNF were enrolled between 2001 and 2013 (13 115 between 2001 and 2008, 1321 between 2010 and 2013). The mean number of DAS28-ESR scores was 3.5/patient (s.d. 2.1), with a mean of 184.9 days (s.d. 69.9) between scores. The DAS28-ESR nadir was achieved within 250 days of commencing anti-TNF, although apparent trajectory divergence emerged by first 6-monthly follow-up at 180 days. Four distinct response trajectories comprised the most stable model. Most patients fitted into 'modest' (7986 patients; 55.3%) or 'substantial' (4676 patients; 32.4%) response trajectories. Of the remainder, 1254 (8.7%) and 520 (3.6%) fitted 'maximal' and 'minimal' response trajectories, respectively. There was a significant (P < 0.01) increase in proportion achieving 'maximal' response between 2001-2008 and 2010-2013. CONCLUSION: This is the largest study to identify long-term response trajectories with anti-TNF. By 6 months, longer-term trajectory profiles of DAS28 could already be identified, with many patients identified earlier. The majority of patients had persistent moderate response, equivalent to maintained DAS28-ESR moderate disease activity. The maximal response trajectory (equivalent to sustained DAS2-ESR remission) was only achieved by approximately one-third of patients.

Predictors, demographics and frequency of sustained remission and low disease activity in anti-tumour necrosis factor-treated rheumatoid arthritis patients.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the frequency and predictors of sustained 28-joint DAS (DAS28) remission and low disease activity (LDA) in patients receiving anti-TNF therapy and changes in responses over a 12 year period. METHODS: Data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Registry for Rheumatoid Arthritis were used. Sustained remission and LDA were defined according to DAS28-ESR thresholds sustained for 6 months. The dataset was dichotomized into sequential chronological subgroups (2001-2010 and 2010-2013). Predictive variables were identified from a previous systematic review and modelled using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Overall, 2144 (14.9%) and 3802 (26.3%) patients achieved sustained remission or LDA, respectively. Positive predictors of sustained remission/LDA included adalimumab (vs etanercept), greater patient global assessment, never- and ex-smoker status (vs current smoking), greater swollen joint count, more recent commencement of anti-TNF and MTX co-prescription (except in the 2010-2013 subgroup). Negative predictors of sustained remission and LDA included poor baseline functional status (HAQ), female gender, older age at starting anti-TNF, infliximab use (vs etanercept), increasing BMI and greater baseline ESR. Increasing tender joint count was negatively associated with sustained LDA only. The overall proportion of patients achieving sustained remission and LDA has increased significantly over time. CONCLUSION: Sustained remission/LDA on anti-TNF treatment remains uncommon. Adalimumab use, greater patient global assessment, never- and ex-smoker status, greater swollen joint count, more recent commencement of anti-TNF and MTX co-prescription are associated with achievement of sustained remission/LDA. However, co-prescription of MTX was not associated with an increased likelihood of achieving sustained remission or LDA in the analysis of more recent anti-TNF responses.

Psoriatic Nail Dystrophy Is Associated with Erosive Disease in the Distal Interphalangeal Joints in Psoriatic Arthritis: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the association between psoriatic nail dystrophy and radiographic damage in the hands of patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is specific to the distal interphalangeal (DIP) joints. METHODS: A convenience sample of patients was collated from the Bath longitudinal PsA cohort. All patients had PsA according to the ClASsification for Psoriatic ARthritis criteria (CASPAR) criteria, scored radiographs of their hands, and documented nail scores as measured by the Psoriatic Nail Severity Score. Chi-square tests were performed to examine for association between features of nail dystrophy and radiographic damage in the DIP joints, and proximal interphalangeal or metacarpophalangeal (non-DIP) joints of the corresponding digits. RESULTS: There were 134 patients included, with a median age of 53 years (interquartile range; IQR 44-61) and disease duration of 7 years (IQR 3-17). The presence of any form of psoriatic nail dystrophy was associated with erosion at the DIP joints of the corresponding digit (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.23-2.83; p < 0.004) and this association was primarily driven by the presence of nail onycholysis (OR 1.72; 95% CI 1.12-2.62; p = 0.02). Nail subungual hyperkeratosis was more strongly associated with joint space narrowing, erosions, and osteoproliferation at the corresponding DIP joint compared to non-DIP joints (p < 0.001). Nail pitting was not associated with erosions or osteoproliferation. CONCLUSION: The presence of psoriatic nail dystrophy, particularly onycholysis, is associated with erosive disease at the DIP joints. Subungual hyperkeratosis is more strongly associated with erosive damage at the DIP than non-DIP joints. These findings support the anatomical and pathological link between nail and DIP joint disease.

Trajectory of radiographic change over a decade: the effect of transition from conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs to anti-tumour necrosis factor in patients with psoriatic arthritis.

Objectives: To describe the trajectory of radiographic progression among patients with PsA who transitioned from conventional synthetic DMARDs to anti-TNF-α inhibitors in routine care. Methods: A retrospective sample of patients with PsA (ClASsification criteria for Psoriatic ARthritis) was taken from the Bath longitudinal cohort. All patients had radiographs of the hands and feet taken: 5 years before (T0), at the time of (T1) and 5 years after (T2) commencing anti-TNF treatment. Radiographs were scored blinded using the PsA-modified Sharp-van der Heijde score (mSvdHS) and for osteoproliferation (Psoriatic Arthritis Ratingen Score) by A.Allard, A.Antony and W.T. This sample size was calculated to ensure 90% power to determine the smallest detectable difference of the mSvdHS to a 5% significance level. Cumulative probability plots were used to determine the probability of radiographic progression pre- (T0-T1) and post- (T1-T2) anti-TNF treatment. Results: Eighty-four radiographs from 28 patients were selected for inclusion. The median [interquartile range (IQR)] disease duration at baseline (T0) was 8.5 (0-19.5) years. The interval between T0-T1 and T1-T2 was 4.2 years (3.34-6.65) and 4.9 years (4.25-5.87), respectively. The median mSvdHS at baseline (T0) was 8.5 (IQR 1.75-27.5). The median (IQR) rate of change in mSvdHS per year reduced after commencing anti-TNF, from 2.1 (0.88-3.92) between T0-T1 to 1.0 (IQR 0.05-2.35) between T1-T2 (P = 0.012). Conclusion: The trajectory of damage accumulation over a 10-year period in this observational clinical cohort is low overall. The rate of radiographic damage as measured by the mSvdHS slows following commencement of anti-TNF.

Risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in an incident cohort of people with psoriatic arthritis: a population-based cohort study.

Objectives: To determine the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular diseases in PsA patients compared with the general population and patients with psoriasis. Methods: Incident PsA patients aged 18-89 years were identified in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1998 and 2014 and were matched (1:4 ratio) to a general population cohort and psoriasis cohort. The incidence of T2D, cerebrovascular disease, ischaemic heart disease and peripheral vascular disease (PVD) was calculated for each study cohort. Conditional Poisson regression was used to calculate adjusted relative risks. Results: We identified 6783 incident cases of PsA. The risk of T2D was significantly higher in the PsA cohort than in the general population and the psoriasis cohorts [adjusted relative risk 1.40 (CI95 1.15, 1.70) and adjusted relative risk 1.53 (CI95 1.19, 1.97), respectively]. The incidence of ischaemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease and the three cardiovascular outcomes combined in the PsA cohort was significantly higher than in the general population. No significant differences in risk were observed between the PsA and psoriasis cohorts for any cardiovascular outcome. Conclusion: The development of T2D in an incident population of PsA is significantly higher than in psoriasis alone or in a general population, whereas the increased risk of cardiovascular disease in PsA and psoriasis is similar.

Gender stratified adjustment of the DAS28-CRP improves inter-score agreement with the DAS28-ESR in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate determinants of discordance between DAS28-ESR and DAS28-CRP and resulting impact on disease activity stratification in RA. METHODS: Paired DAS28-ESR and DAS28-CRP readings (n = 31 074) were obtained from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for RA. Factors influencing discordance between DAS28-ESR and DAS28-CRP were evaluated alongside the resulting effect on disease activity stratification. The impact of gender adjustment to the DAS28-CRP was evaluated. RESULTS: DAS28-CRP scores were ∼0.3 lower than DAS28-ESR overall, with greatest differences for women (-0.35) and patients over 50 years old (-0.34). Mean male DAS28-CRP scores were 0.15 less than corresponding DAS28-ESR scores. Discordance between DAS28-ESR and DAS28-CRP significantly impacted disease activity stratification at low disease activity and remission thresholds (32.0% and 66.6% concordance, respectively). Adjusting DAS28-CRP scores by gender significantly (P < 0.001) improved agreement with the DAS28-ESR. CONCLUSION: Discordance between DAS28-ESR and DAS28-CRP is greatest for women and patients over 50 years of age, and influences disease activity stratification. The proposed gender-adjusted DAS28-CRP improves inter-score agreement with DAS28-ESR, supporting more reliable disease activity stratification in treat-to-target approaches for RA.

Towards an assessment of the health impact of industrially contaminated sites: waste landfills in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: this paper is based upon work from COST Action ICSHNet. To develop and apply recently proposed methods for assessing the health impact of pollution from contaminated sites and apply them to the case of landfills using available large European datasets. METHODS: standard methods for health impact assessment and burden of disease were applied using the available evidence on the health effects of living near a landfill. Geo-referenced data on landfills from the European Pollutant and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) were combined with population density data (European Environment Agency dataset) and disease frequency data from European health for all database (HfA); uncertainty was assessed via simulation methods. Countries covered by the European Environment Agency's E-PRTR registry on contaminated sites were considered (European Union Member States plus four additional European Countries) for the period 2007-2014. Four outcomes, for which suggestive evidence is available, were included: - low birth weight; - congenital anomalies; - respiratory disease; - annoyance from odour. Firstly, they were analysed separately, in terms of excess number of cases, and then combined into disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS: 1,544 landfill sites were considered. 29.3 million people (6% of the total population) live within 4 km from one or more of these sites. The number of yearly attributable cases associated with low birth weight, congenital anomalies, respiratory diseases, and annoyance from odour were estimated, respectively, at 1,239, 70, 33,039, and 1,582,624. Associated DALYs were 10,192, 958, 2,688, and 47,505, respectively; 61,325 in total. CONCLUSIONS: estimates indicate a sizable health impact, largest for annoyance from odour, given the high frequency of the outcome and in spite of its lesser severity compared to the other ones. Application of the methodology is relatively straightforward, once the main assumption of causality is made. The present work offers a first approximation of the impact on health of waste landfills in Europe and can be further applied to other contaminated sites.

Data Integration for the Assessment of Population Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution for Global Burden of Disease Assessment.

Air pollution is a leading global disease risk factor. Tracking progress (e.g., for Sustainable Development Goals) requires accurate, spatially resolved, routinely updated exposure estimates. A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to estimate annual average fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution globally for 2010-2016. The model incorporated spatially varying relationships between 6003 ground measurements from 117 countries, satellite-based estimates, and other predictors. Model coefficients indicated larger contributions from satellite-based estimates in countries with low monitor density. Within and out-of-sample cross-validation indicated improved predictions of ground measurements compared to previous (Global Burden of Disease 2013) estimates (increased within-sample R2 from 0.64 to 0.91, reduced out-of-sample, global population-weighted root mean squared error from 23 µg/m3 to 12 µg/m3). In 2016, 95% of the world's population lived in areas where ambient PM2.5 levels exceeded the World Health Organization 10 µg/m3 (annual average) guideline; 58% resided in areas above the 35 µg/m3 Interim Target-1. Global population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations were 18% higher in 2016 (51.1 µg/m3) than in 2010 (43.2 µg/m3), reflecting in particular increases in populous South Asian countries and from Saharan dust transported to West Africa. Concentrations in China were high (2016 population-weighted mean: 56.4 µg/m3) but stable during this period.

Value of the Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data 3 in Patients With Psoriatic Arthritis: Results From a Tight-Control Clinical Trial and an Observational Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data 3 (RAPID3), a patient-reported, composite index, designed initially for feasibility in clinical care. RAPID3 was developed in rheumatoid arthritis, but has been found useful in many rheumatic diseases. We analyzed RAPID3 in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). METHODS: Post hoc analyses were performed on 2 independent data sets, the Tight Control of Psoriatic Arthritis (TICOPA) clinical trial, and the Long-Term Outcome in Psoriatic Arthritis Study (LOPAS II), an observational cohort. RAPID3 (range 0-30) is the total of three 0-10 scores for the Health Assessment Questionnaire disability index (recalculated from 0-3), pain visual analog scale (VAS), and global VAS. RAPID3 scores were compared to the Psoriatic Arthritis Disease Activity Score (PASDAS), the Disease Activity in Psoriatic Arthritis (DAPSA), and other available clinical measures, according to Spearman's correlation coefficients, standardized response mean, SEM, smallest detectible difference, minimally important difference (in patients who improved), and receiver operating characteristic curves. RAPID3 remission was compared to criteria for both standard minimal disease activity (MDA) and very low disease activity (VLDA). RESULTS: RAPID3 was correlated significantly with PASDAS in TICOPA (r = 0.79, P < 0.01) and with DAPSA in LOPAS II (ρ = 0.59, P < 0.01), and with most other measures in both data sets. RAPID3 discriminated between tight control and standard care in TICOPA at 48 weeks at levels comparable to DAPSA and the PASDAS (P < 0.01). RAPID3 remission discriminated treatment groups in TICOPA intermediate between MDA and VLDA criteria. CONCLUSION: RAPID3 appears comparably informative to PASDAS and DAPSA in PsA, with greater feasibility for routine clinical care.