ABSTRACT
The present study was carried out at the Plant Pathology Hafizabad Research Station, the University of Layyah, during the crop seasons 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 to evaluate the response of various wheat genotypes against leaf rust severity (%), environmental conditions favourable for disease development and grain yield. Except for minimum temperature and minimum relative humidity, which had a negative association with disease development, there was a significant correlation between leaf rust severity (%) and all environmental conditions such as maximum temperature, maximum relative humidity, rainfall, and wind speed. All epidemiological variables such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed significantly affect the disease progression. The disease predictive model accounted for 48-69 % variability in leaf rust severity. The model performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.69) and RMSE, both demonstrated acceptable predictive results for leaf rust severity (%) management. Leaf rust severity (%) increased with an increase in maximum temperature (17.8-30 °C), maximum relative humidity (76.3-85 %), rainfall (2.2-10.85 mm) and wind speed 1.1-2.7 km/h and decreased with the increase of minimum temperature (7.91-16.71 °C) minimum relative humidity (47.15-56.45 %) during both rating seasons 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. The single and two applications of fungicides at the Zadok's scale 3, ZS 4.3, and ZS 5.4 stages led to a significant reduction in grain yield losses caused by leaf rust severity (%) in both the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 crop seasons. Single and two sprays of prothioconazole, were found to be the first choice among all treatments to reduce the disease severity and increase grain production and maximum gross revenue (513.1-777.8$/ha), as compared to followed by single and two sprays of propiconazole (Progress), tebuconazole + trifloxystrobin, tebuconazole, bixafen + tebuconazole, and propiconazole (Tilt), respectively. These findings recommend the involvement of genotype resistance and weather predictors in wheat leaf rust development, along with fungicide application studies, to improve the predictability of host resistance to disease, future models, and the sustainability of disease control methods.
