The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025).

Background: Milk is considered one of the most important capital goods and essential sources of animal protein in the diet of the Egyptian family, as well as an effective means to improve the economic condition of farmers, considering this important view, the policymakers need accurate and advance information regarding future supply for planning on the both short and long term. Aim: The study aims to forecast the production of milk in Egypt during the period from 2022 to 2025 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using time series data of milk production (MP) (1970-2021) obtained from the Central Agency for public mobilization and statistics (CAPMS). Methods: Augmented Dickey-Fullar Unit Root test, Partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and Autocorrelation function (ACF) of the time series sequence were used to judge the stationarity of the data. After confirming the stationarity of the data, the appropriate ARIMA model was selected based on certain statistical parameters like significant coefficients, values of adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criteria (AIC), Schwarz criterion (SC), and Standard Error of Regression. After the selection of the model based on the previous parameters, the verification of the model was employed by checking the residuals of the Correlogram-Q-Statistics test. Results: The most fitted model to predict the future levels of MP in Egypt was ARIMA (1, 1, and 3). Conclusion: Using the ARIMA (1, 1, 3) model, it could be forecasted that the production of milk in Egypt would show an increasing trend from 6,152.606 thousand tons in 2022 to 6,360.829 thousand tons in 2025.

Exploring the Interactive Effects of Thymol and Thymoquinone: Moving towards an Enhanced Performance, Gross Margin, Immunity and Aeromonas sobria Resistance of Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus).

Plant-derived bioactive compounds with promising nutritional and therapeutic attributes (phytogenics) are among the top priorities in the aquaculture sector. Therefore, the impact of thymol (Thy) and/or thymoquinone (ThQ) on the growth, immune response antioxidant capacity, and Aeromonas sobria (A. sobria) resistance of Nile tilapia was investigated. Four fish groups were fed a control diet and three basal diets supplemented with 200 mg/kg diet of Thy or ThQ and a blend of both Thy and ThQ at a level of 200 mg/kg diet each. At the end of the feeding trial (12 weeks), the tilapias were challenged intraperitoneally with virulent A. sobria (2.5 × 108 CFU/mL) harboring aerolysin (aero) and hemolysin (hly) genes. The results revealed that tilapias fed diets fortified with a combination of Thy and ThQ displayed significantly enhanced growth rate and feed conversion ratio. Notably, the expression of the genes encoding digestive enzymes (pepsinogen, chymotrypsinogen, α-amylase and lipase) and muscle and intestinal antioxidant enzymes (glutathione peroxidase, catalase and superoxide dismutase) was significantly upregulated in Thy/ThQ-fed fish. An excessive inflammatory response was subsided more prominently in the group administrated Thy/ThQ as supported by the downregulation of il-ß, il-6 and il-8 genes and in contrast, the upregulation of the anti-inflammatory il-10 gene. Remarkably, dietary inclusion of Thy/ThQ augmented the expression of autophagy-related genes, whilst it downregulated that of mtor gene improving the autophagy process. Furthermore, Thy/ThQ protective effect against A. sobria was evidenced via downregulating the expression of its aero and hly virulence genes with higher fish survival rates. Overall, the current study encouraged the inclusion of Thy/ThQ in fish diets to boost their growth rates, promote digestive and antioxidant genes expression, improve their immune responses and provide defense against A. sorbia infections with great economic benefits.

Supplementing Garlic Nanohydrogel Optimized Growth, Gastrointestinal Integrity and Economics and Ameliorated Necrotic Enteritis in Broiler Chickens Using a Clostridium perfringens Challenge Model.

Necrotic enteritis (NE) caused by Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) results in impaired bird growth performance and increased production costs. Nanotechnology application in the poultry industry to control NE outbreaks is still not completely clarified. Therefore, the efficacy of dietary garlic nano-hydrogel (G-NHG) on broilers growth performance, intestinal integrity, economic returns and its potency to alleviate C. perfringens levels using NE challenge model were addressed. A total of 1200 male broiler chicks (Ross 308) were assigned into six groups; four supplemented with 100, 200, 300 or 400 mg of G-NHG/kg diet and co-challenged with C. perfringens at 21, 22 and 23 d of age and two control groups fed basal diet with or without C. perfringens challenge. Over the total growing period, the 400 mg/kg G-NHG group had the most improved body weight gain and feed conversion efficiency regardless of challenge. Parallel with these results, the mRNA expression of genes encoding digestive enzymes (alpha 2A amylase (AMY2A), pancreatic lipase (PNLIP) and cholecystokinin (CCK)) and intestinal barriers (junctional adhesion molecule-2 (JAM-2), occludin and mucin-2 (Muc-2)) were increased in groups fed G-NHG at higher levels to be nearly similar to those in the unchallenged group. At 14 d post challenge, real-time PCR results revealed that inclusion of G-NHG led to a dose-dependently decrease in the C. perfringens population, thereby decreasing the birds' intestinal lesion score and mortality rates. Using 400 mg/kg of G-NHG remarkably ameliorated the adverse effects of NE caused by C. perfringens challenge, which contributed to better growth performance of challenged birds with rational economic benefits.

Impact of Fermented or Enzymatically Fermented Dried Olive Pomace on Growth, Expression of Digestive Enzyme and Glucose Transporter Genes, Oxidative Stability of Frozen Meat, and Economic Efficiency of Broiler Chickens.

The use of dried olive pomace as complementary energy sources in poultry feed is still limited due to its low protein and high fiber contents. Bioconversion of olive pomace through solid-state fermentation with or without exogenous enzymes is considered as a trial for improving its nutritional value. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of fermented olive pomace with or without enzymatic treatment on the growth, modulations of genes encoding digestive enzymes and glucose transporters, meat oxidative stability, and economic efficiency of broiler chickens. A total of 1400 day-old broiler chicks (Ross 308) were randomly allocated to seven dietary treatments with 10 replicates of 20 birds/replicate. Treatments included control (basal corn-soybean diet) and other six treatments in which basal diet was replaced by three levels (7.5, 15, and 30%) of fermented olive pomace (FOPI) or enzymatically fermented olive pomace (FOPII) for 42 days. The highest body weight gain was observed in groups fed 7.5 and 15% FOPII (increased by 6.6 and 12.5%, respectively, when compared with the control group). Also, feeding on 7.5 and 15% FOPII yielded a better feed conversion ratio and improved the digestibility of crude protein, fat, and crude fiber. The expression of the SGLT-1 gene was upregulated in groups fed FOPI and FOPII when compared with the control group. Moreover, the expression of the GLUT2 gene was elevated in groups fed 7.5 and 15% FOPII. By increasing the levels of FOPI and FOPII in diets, the expression of genes encoding pancreatic AMY2A, PNLIP, and CCK was upregulated (p < 0.05) when compared with the control. Fat percentage and cholesterol content in breast meat were significantly reduced (p < 0.05) by nearly 13.7 and 16.7% in groups fed FOPI and FOPII at the levels of 15 and 30%. Total phenolic and flavonoid contents in breast meat were significantly increased in groups fed 15 and 30% FOPI and FOPII when compared with the control group and even after a long period of frozen storage. After 180 days of frozen storage, the inclusion of high levels of FOP significantly increased (p < 0.05) the levels of glutathione peroxide and total superoxide dismutase and meat ability to scavenge free radical 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl. Furthermore, the highest net profit and profitability ratio and the lowest cost feed/kg body gain were achieved in groups fed 7.5 and 15% of FOPII, respectively. The results of this study indicated that dietary inclusion of 15% FOPII could enhance the growth performance and economic efficiency of broiler chickens. Moreover, a higher inclusion level of FOPI or FOPII could enhance the quality and increase the oxidative stability of frozen meat and extend the storage time.

Adsorptivity of mercury on magnetite nano-particles and their influences on growth, economical, hemato-biochemical, histological parameters and bioaccumulation in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus).

Among toxic pollutants, Mercury (Hg) is a toxic heavy metal that induces harmful impacts on aquatic ecosystems directly and human being's health indirectly. This study confirmed the in vitro magnetic potential of magnetite Nano-Particles (Fe3O4 NPs) against waterborne Hg exposure-induced toxicity in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). We further evaluate the safety profile of Fe3O4 NPs on fish growth, hemato-biochemical, histological parameters, bioaccumulation in muscles, and economy. Magnetite nanoparticles were characterized, adsorption loading to Hg ions was investigated, and testing different concentrations of Fe3O4 NPs (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 mg/L) was applied to determine the highest concentration of adsorption. An in vivo experiment includes 120 fish with an average weight of 26.2 ± 0.26 g were randomly divided into 4 equal groups, each group had three replicates (n = 30 fish/group; 10 fish/ replicate). All groups were fed on a reference basal diet and the experiment was conducted for 30 days. The first group (G1) was allocated as a control. The second group (G2) received 1.0 mg/L aqueous suspension of Fe3O4 NPs. The third group (G3) was exposed to an aqueous solution of Hg ions at a concentration of 0.025 mg/L. Meanwhile, the fourth group (G4) acquired an aqueous suspension composed of a mixture of Hg ions and Fe3O4 NPs as previously mentioned. Throughout the exposure period, the clinical signs, symptoms, and mortalities were recorded. The Hg ions-exposed group induced the following consequences; reduced appetite resulting in reduced growth and less economic efficiency; microcytic hypochromic anemia, leukocytosis, lymphopenia, and neutrophilia; sharp and clear depletion in the immune indicators including lysozymes activity, immunoglobulin M (IgM), and Myeloperoxidase activities (MPO); significant higher levels of ALT, AST, urea, creatinine, and Superoxide dismutase (SOD); histological alterations of gill, hepatic and muscular tissues with strong expression of apoptotic marker (caspase 3); and a higher accumulation of Hg ions in the muscles. Surprisingly, Fe3O4 NPs-supplemented groups exhibited strong adsorption capacity against the Hg ions and mostly removed the Hg ions accumulation in the muscles. Also, the hematological, biochemical, and histological parameters were recovered. Thus, in order to assess the antitoxic role of Fe3O4 NPs against Hg and their safety on O. niloticus, and fill the gap of the research, the current context was investigated to evaluate the promising role of Fe3O4 NPs to prevent Hg-exposure-induced toxicity and protection of fish health, which ascertains essentiality for sustainable development of nanotechnology in the aquatic environment.

Effects of graded levels of microbial fermented or enzymatically treated dried brewer's grains on growth, digestive and nutrient transporter genes expression and cost effectiveness in broiler chickens.

BACKGROUND: Poultry feed consists mainly of conventional grains and protein supplements, however, using treated unconventional agro-industrial by-products as replacements of corn soybean-based diet can minimize production costs and improve productivity. Therefore, in this study, the effects of fermented or enzymatically treated dried brewer grains (DBG) on growth, expression of digestive enzymes and nutrient transporters genes and the profitability of the rations were evaluated. A total of 1600 one-day-old Ross 308 broiler chicks were randomly distributed in 2 × 4 factorial arrangement (eight treatments with ten replicates, 20 birds/replicate). Experimental diets included two controls; negative control (basal corn-soybean diet; NC) and positive control (basal corn-soybean diet with exogenous enzymes; PC), and six diets in which basal diet was replaced by three levels of fermented DBG (FDBG; 5, 10 or 15%), or enzyme-treated DBG (DBG 5, 10 or 15%+Enz), for 38 days. RESULTS: The results described that feeding FDBG (three levels) or DBG5%+Enz improved (P < 0.05) BW gain and feed efficiency of broilers. Also, feeding FDBG10% yielded the best improvement in weight gain (10%), compared to NC group. Increasing the inclusion levels of DBG either fermented or enzymatically treated up-regulated (p < 0.01) expression of digestive-genes in proventriculus (PGC and PGA5, range 1.4-1.8 fold), pancreas (AMY2A, PNLIP, CELA1, and CCK; range 1.2-2.3 fold) and duodenum (CAT1, CAT2, GLUT1, GLUT2, LAT1, Pep1; range 1.3-3 fold) when compared to NC group. Feeding treated DBG significantly increased (p < 0.05, range 4.5-13.6%) gizzard relative weight compared to NC and PC groups. An additional benefit was lower (p < 0.01) cholesterol content from 66.9 mg/100 mg (NC) to 62.8 mg/100 mg (FDBG5 or 10%) in thigh meat. Furthermore, the least cost feed/kg body gain was achieved in FDBG10% and DBG5%+Enz groups, with approx. 16% reduction compared to NC cost, leading to increasing the income gross margin by 47% and 40% in FDBG10% and DBG5%+Enz groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Substitution of corn-soybean based diet with 10% FDBG or 5% DBG+Enz resulted in better growth and higher economic efficiency of broilers chickens.