ABSTRACT
The Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant contains 34 mutations in the spike gene likely impacting protective efficacy from vaccines. We evaluated the potential impact of these mutations on the cellular immune response. Combining epitope mapping to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that we have determined from past experiments along with T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire sequencing from thousands of vaccinated or naturally infected individuals, we estimate the abrogation of the cellular immune response in Omicron. Although 20% of CD4+ T cell epitopes are potentially affected, the loss of immunity mediated by CD4+ T cells is estimated to be slightly above 30% as some of the affected epitopes are relatively more immunogenic. For CD8+ T cells, we estimate a loss of approximately 20%. These reductions in T cell immunity are substantially larger than observed in other widely distributed variants. Combined with the expected substantial loss of neutralization from antibodies, the overall protection provided by SARS-CoV-2 vaccines could be impacted adversely. From analysis of prior variants, the efficacy of vaccines against symptomatic infection has been largely maintained and is strongly correlated with the T cell response but not as strongly with the neutralizing antibody response. We expect the remaining 70% to 80% of on-target T cells induced by SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to reduce morbidity and mortality from infection with Omicron.
