ABSTRACT
Chengde's transitional region from plateau to plain is located in the transition zone of agriculture and livestock and is extremely sensitive to climate change and human activities. This study used the net primary productivity(NPP) of vegetation as an evaluation index to quantify the degree impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation change in the region. The Thornthwaite Memorial model was used to calculate the potential NPP, and the actual NPP was obtained based on MODIS NPP remote sensing images, using the difference between the actual and potential NPPs to express the amount of change in NPP owing to human activities. We used the slope trend and coefficient of variation method to analyze the trend and stability distribution of the actual NPP, potential NPP, and NPP influenced by human activities, and the correlation between actual NPP and annual precipitation and annual average temperature was analyzed using the correlation coefficient method. Finally, we quantified the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation change in the region. The results showed that 99.87% of the vegetation in the region was improved and changed steadily, and the proportions of the areas showing positive correlation between actual NPP and annual precipitation and annual average temperature were 99.87% and 91.66%, respectively. The potential NPP showed an increasing trend from northwest to southeast, whereas the trend and stability of the potential NPP both showed an increasing trend from west to east. The area where climate change and human activities played a role in vegetation improvement accounted for 99.71%, and that affected by climate change accounted for 0.14%, with the proportion of human activities leading to vegetation degradation being 0.15%.
