A stronger role for long-term moisture change than for CO2 in determining tropical woody vegetation change.

Anthropogenically elevated CO2 (eCO2) concentrations have been suggested to increase woody cover within tropical ecosystems through fertilization. The effect of eCO2 is built into Earth system models, although testing the relationship over long periods remains challenging. Here, we explore the relative importance of six drivers of vegetation change in western Africa over the past ~500,000 years (moisture availability, fire activity, mammalian herbivore density, temperature, temperature seasonality, CO2) by coupling past environmental change data from Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana) with global data. We found that moisture availability and fire activity were the most important factors in determining woody cover, whereas the effect of CO2 was small. Our findings suggest that the role of eCO2 effects on tropical vegetation in predictive models must be reconsidered.

Pollen and spores as biological recorders of past ultraviolet irradiance.

Solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance is a key driver of climatic and biotic change. Ultraviolet irradiance modulates stratospheric warming and ozone production, and influences the biosphere from ecosystem-level processes through to the largest scale patterns of diversification and extinction. Yet our understanding of ultraviolet irradiance is limited because no method has been validated to reconstruct its flux over timescales relevant to climatic or biotic processes. Here, we show that a recently developed proxy for ultraviolet irradiance based on spore and pollen chemistry can be used over long (105 years) timescales. Firstly we demonstrate that spatial variations in spore and pollen chemistry correlate with known latitudinal solar irradiance gradients. Using this relationship we provide a reconstruction of past changes in solar irradiance based on the pollen record from Lake Bosumtwi in Ghana. As anticipated, variations in the chemistry of grass pollen from the Lake Bosumtwi record show a link to multiple orbital precessional cycles (19-21 thousand years). By providing a unique, local proxy for broad spectrum solar irradiance, the chemical analysis of spores and pollen offers unprecedented opportunities to decouple solar variability, climate and vegetation change through geologic time and a new proxy with which to probe the Earth system.

CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change.

Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28-15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.

East African megadroughts between 135 and 75 thousand years ago and bearing on early-modern human origins.

The environmental backdrop to the evolution and spread of early Homo sapiens in East Africa is known mainly from isolated outcrops and distant marine sediment cores. Here we present results from new scientific drill cores from Lake Malawi, the first long and continuous, high-fidelity records of tropical climate change from the continent itself. Our record shows periods of severe aridity between 135 and 75 thousand years (kyr) ago, when the lake's water volume was reduced by at least 95%. Surprisingly, these intervals of pronounced tropical African aridity in the early late-Pleistocene were much more severe than the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the period previously recognized as one of the most arid of the Quaternary. From these cores and from records from Lakes Tanganyika (East Africa) and Bosumtwi (West Africa), we document a major rise in water levels and a shift to more humid conditions over much of tropical Africa after approximately 70 kyr ago. This transition to wetter, more stable conditions coincides with diminished orbital eccentricity, and a reduction in precession-dominated climatic extremes. The observed climate mode switch to decreased environmental variability is consistent with terrestrial and marine records from in and around tropical Africa, but our records provide evidence for dramatically wetter conditions after 70 kyr ago. Such climate change may have stimulated the expansion and migrations of early modern human populations.