A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection.

BACKGROUND: The arboviruses West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV) and Ross River virus (RRV) have been demonstrated to be blood transfusion-transmissible. A model to estimate the risk of WNV to the blood supply using a Monte Carlo approach has been developed and also applied to Chikungunya virus. Also, a probabilistic model was developed to assess the risk of DENV to blood safety, which was later adapted to RRV. To address efficacy and limitations within each model we present a hybrid model that promises improved accuracy, and is broadly applicable to assess the risk of arboviral transmission by blood transfusion. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data were drawn from the Cairns Public Health Unit (Australia) and published literature. Based on the published models and using R code, a novel 'combined' model was developed and validated against the BP model using sensitivity testing. RESULTS: The mean risk per 10,000 of the combined model is 0.98 with a range from 0.79 to 1.25, while the maximum risk was 4.45 ranging from 2.62 to 7.67 respectively. These parameters for the BP model were 1.20 ranging from 0.84 to 1.55, and 2.86 ranging from 1.33 to 5.23 respectively. CONCLUSION: The combined simulation model is simple and robust. We propose it can be applied as a 'generic' arbovirus model to assess the risk from known or novel arboviral threats to the blood supply.

Replication priority of hepatitis C virus genotype 2a in a Chinese cohort.

HCV genotypes have been documented in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to determine the replication priority of different HCV genotypes in a Chinese HCV positive cohort. Serum samples from 491 apparently healthy Chinese blood donors testing positive for HCV antibodies and naive to antiviral drug therapy were tested. Genotyping analysis showed that genotypes 1b and 2a were predominant and accounted for 77.6% of the HCV infections. Among the genotype groups, individuals infected with genotype 2a had an HCV RNA viral load (10(8) copies/mL) about 200-fold (lg, 2.3) greater than those infected with other genotypes (10(4)-10(5) copies/mL) indicating a replication priority of genotype 2a. However, there was no correlation between HCV genotype and antibody response suggesting that the amplification advantage of genotype 2a results from a favorable interaction with the host cellular environment. In conclusion, HCV genotypes 1b and 2a are the predominant genotypes in China and genotype 2a possesses a significant replication priority compared with the other genotypes. This suggests the existence of host cellular factors that may act as drug-targets for entirely clearing HCV infection in the future.

Predicting the presence of hepatitis B virus surface antigen in Chinese patients by pathology data mining.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a pathogen of worldwide health significance, associated with liver disease. A vaccine is available, yet HBV prevalence remains a concern, particularly in developing countries. Pathology laboratories have a primary role in the diagnosis and monitoring of HBV infection, through hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) immunoassay and associated tests. Analysis of HBsAg immunoassay and associated pathology data from 821 Chinese patients applied 10-fold cross-validation to establish classification decision trees (CDTs), with CDT results used subsequently to develop a logistic regression model. The robustness of logistic regression model was confirmed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Pseudo-R(2) and an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) result that showed the logistic regression model was capable of accurately discriminating the HBsAg positive from HBsAg negative patients at 95% accuracy. Overall CDT sensitivity and specificity was 94.7% (± 5.0%) and 89.5% (± 5.7%), respectively, close to the sensitivity and specificity of the immunoassay, providing an alternative to predict HBsAg status. Both the CDT and logistic regression modeling demonstrated the importance of the routine pathology variables alanine aminotransferase (ALT), serum albumin (ALB), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) to accurately predict HBsAg status in a Chinese patient cohort. The study demonstrates that CDTs and a linked logistic regression model applied to routine pathology data were an effective supplement to HBsAg immunoassay, and a possible replacement method where immunoassays are not requested or not easily available for the laboratory diagnosis of HBV infection.

Two HBV DNA+/HBsAg- blood donors identified by HBV NAT in Shenzhen, China.

BACKGROUND: In order to further improve blood safety, mini-pool (MP) nucleic acid testing (NAT) was implemented to screen samples negative for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), anti-hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV), anti-human immunodeficiency virus (anti-HIV), syphilis (anti-Treponemal antibody) and with normal ALT. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: From August 2006 to February 2008, 41,301 donations were screened using commercial HIV/HCV RNA and HBV DNA Real-Time PCR NAT assays in pools of 8. Reactive pools were re-tested as individual samples using the appropriate screening test and confirmed using an alternate commercial NAT assay. Donors reactive on both NAT assays were considered 'confirmed' positive for the virus concerned and recalled for additional follow-up testing and counseling. RESULTS: Of the 41,301 samples screened, no HIV or HCV RNA-positive/seronegative donations were detected but two HBV DNA positive/HBsAg negative blood donors (Donors 1 and 2) were identified. Their respective hepatitis immunological markers were: Donor 1 - anti-HBc positive/anti-HBe positive/HBeAg negative/ALT normal and HBV DNA viral load of 112 IU/ml; Donor 2 - anti-HBc positive/anti-HBe negative/HBeAg negative/ALT normal and HBV DNA viral load 2750 IU/ml. CONCLUSIONS: MP NAT identified two HBsAg negative donors with presumed occult infection but no HIV or HCV seronegative/NAT positive (yield) donors. The HBV yield rate of 1 in 20,650 (95%CI - 1 in 5663 to 1 in 75,303) is comparatively high, exceeds the predicted rate based on previous modeling for the population and demonstrates the incremental blood safety value of NAT in countries where HBV is highly epidemic. The low viral load of the two yield samples underscores the importance of optimizing the sensitivity of the HBV NAT assay selected for screening.

Theoretically estimated risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome transmission through blood transfusion during an epidemic in Shenzhen, Guangdong, China in 2003.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a newly recognized infectious disease that caused an outbreak in south China in 2003. The cause of SARS was identified as a novel coronavirus (CoV). The existence of asymptomatic seroconvertors and the detection of the SARS-CoV RNA in plasma during the course of infection all suggest that SARS could, as least theoretically, be transmitted by transfusion. An estimate of the risk of SARS transmission through blood transfusion will contribute to decisions concerning blood safety monitoring and may be useful in the design of strategies to decrease the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Case onset dates from the 2003 Shenzhen SARS epidemic and investigational results from Taiwan on viremia in humans are used to estimate the number of cases that were viremic throughout the epidemic. Estimates of the asymptomatic-to-clinically confirmed SARS-CoV infection ratio, the proportion of asymptomatic infections reported in a seroprevalence survey in Hongkong, and the population size of Shenzhen are used to infer the SARS-CoV transfusion-transmission risk. Statistical resampling methods are used. RESULTS: Based on data from Shenzhen, Hongkong and Taiwan, the maximum and mean risk (per million) of SARS-CoV transmission from donors in Shenzhen were estimated as 23.57 (95% CI: 6.83-47.69) and 14.11 (95% CI: 11.00-17.22), respectively. The estimated risk peaked on April 02, 2003. CONCLUSIONS: Although there are currently no confirmed reports of the transmission of SARS-CoV from asymptomatic individuals, recent research data indicate that transfusion-transmitted SARS-CoV is at least theoretically possible. Although the risk is low, with its rapid spread of the disease, appearance of alarmingly high infectivity and high fatality rate, public health authorities need to consider strategies for blood donor recruitment and virus inactivation during an epidemic to further ensure blood safety.

Residual risk of transfusion-transmitted viral infections in Shenzhen, China, 2001 through 2004.

BACKGROUND: There are no current estimates of the residual risks of transmission by blood of hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in China. Such estimates are an essential prerequisite to monitoring and improving transfusion safety as well as supporting evidence based assessment of the value of implementing new screening interventions. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Viral screening data for donors from Shenzhen, China, for the period 2001 to 2004, were retrospectively analyzed. The data were applied to a published model to estimate the residual risk of transmitting HIV, HBV, and HCV by blood transfusion in Shenzhen, as well as to assess the residual risk reduction value of various new tests. RESULTS: The point estimates for the combined 2003 and 2004 period calculate as 1 in 17,501 for HBV, 1 in 59,588 for HCV, and 1 in 903,498 for HIV. The predicted yield for improved hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) assays, minipool (MP) nucleic acid testing (NAT), and individual-donation (ID) NAT was 6.9, 9.5, and 28.3 per million donations, respectively. The predicted yield for implementing a fourth-generation HCV (antigen-antibody) or MP NAT assay was 13.4 or 14.7 per million donations, respectively. For HIV, the predicted yield for implementing a fourth-generation HIV (antigen-antibody) or MP NAT assay was markedly smaller, 0.25 or 0.65 per million donations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Relative to that reported for Western blood systems, the prevalence and the residual risk of HBV and HCV are high, whereas HIV is comparable. Pending a formal cost-effectiveness study for NAT, implementing improved HBsAg and combination HCV antibody-antigen assays in Shenzhen would markedly reduce the residual risk.