Would future climate warming cause zoonotic diseases to spread over long distances?

Dipus sagitta is a major rodent found in arid environments and desert areas. They feed on plant seeds, young branches and some small insects, and have hibernating habits. Peak Dipus sagitta numbers impact the construction of the plant community in the environment, but also have a human impact as these rodents carry a variety of parasitic fleas capable of spreading serious diseases to humans. Based on 216 present distribution records of Dipus sagitta and seven environmental variables, this article simulates the potential distribution of Dipus sagitta during the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, the present and the future (2070s, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). This study also analyzes the geographic changes of the population distribution and evaluates the importance of climate factors by integrating contribution rate, replacement importance value and the jackknife test using the MaxEnt model. In this study, we opted to assess the predictive capabilities of our model using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) metrics. The findings indicate that the AUC value exceeds 0.9 and the AUC ratio is greater than 1, indicating superior predictive performance by the model. The results showed that the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of the three-toed jerboa were precipitation in the coldest quarter, temperature seasonality (standard deviation), and mean annual temperature. Under the two warming scenarios of the mid-Holocene and the future, there were differences in the changes in the distribution area of the three-toed jerboa. During the mid-Holocene, the suitable distribution area of the three-toed jerboa expanded, with a 93.91% increase in the rate of change compared to the Last Glacial Maximum. The size of the three-toed jerboa's habitat decreases under both future climate scenarios. Compared to the current period, under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, the change rate is -2.96%, and under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the change rate is -7.41%. This indicates a trend of contraction in the south and expansion in the north. It is important to assess changes in the geographic population of Dipus sagitta due to climate change to formulate population control strategies of these harmful rodents and to prevent and control the long-distance transmission of zoonotic diseases.

Controlling Effects of Nanocomposite Sterilant ND-1 on the Growth of Wild Populations of Midday Gerbil (Meriones meridianus).

Grassland is not only an important part of the terrestrial ecosystem with multiple ecological functions, but also an important base for Chinese herdsmen to produce and live. However, the occurrence and spread of rodent infestation reduces the biodiversity and productivity of grassland ecosystems. It also severely threatens human life, health, and biosecurity through disease transmission. In this study, we explored the ability of the nanocomposite sterilant ND-1 to control grassland rodent populations. Semi-closed experimental and control plots were established in the desert area of Alashan, Inner Mongolia, China. In spring 2018, the nanocomposite sterile ND-1 (Nongda-1) was introduced once, and the control effect of ND-1 on the growth of the wild population of midday gerbils was measured for two years. We show that ND-1 significantly reduced the population of midday gerbils in the experimental area, with a negative population growth rate. In addition, in the second year, the ratio of female midday gerbils to sub-adults in the experimental area was significantly lower than that in the control area, which resulted in a significant difference in the sex ratio of midday gerbils. There were significantly fewer females than males, and the population growth of midday gerbils in the experimental area was significantly inhibited. ND-1 had no significant effect on the home range of midday gerbils, and sterile individuals continued to occupy the home range and consume resources. Therefore, ND-1 reduced the number of female midday gerbils during the breeding period and the sex ratio and population density and altered the age structure of the wild population. Additionally, competition between sterile and normal individuals had a significant control effect on the growth of wild populations. Our studies demonstrate the significance of ND-1 in the sustainable control of grassland rodent pests, with the potential for limiting grassland rodent damage in the future.