Effect of ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease and nasopharyngeal carriage in Kenya: a longitudinal surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10), delivered at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age was introduced in Kenya in January, 2011, accompanied by a catch-up campaign in Kilifi County for children aged younger than 5 years. Coverage with at least two PCV10 doses in children aged 2-11 months was 80% in 2011 and 84% in 2016; coverage with at least one dose in children aged 12-59 months was 66% in 2011 and 87% in 2016. We aimed to assess PCV10 effect against nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children and adults in Kilifi County. METHODS: This study was done at the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme among residents of the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, a rural community on the Kenyan coast covering an area of 891 km2. We linked clinical and microbiological surveillance for IPD among admissions of all ages at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, which serves the community, to the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 1999 to 2016. We calculated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) comparing the prevaccine (Jan 1, 1999-Dec 31, 2010) and postvaccine (Jan 1, 2012-Dec 31, 2016) eras, adjusted for confounding, and reported percentage reduction in IPD as 1 minus IRR. Annual cross-sectional surveys of nasopharyngeal carriage were done from 2009 to 2016. FINDINGS: Surveillance identified 667 cases of IPD in 3 211 403 person-years of observation. Yearly IPD incidence in children younger than 5 years reduced sharply in 2011 following vaccine introduction and remained low (PCV10-type IPD: 60·8 cases per 100 000 in the prevaccine era vs 3·2 per 100 000 in the postvaccine era [adjusted IRR 0·08, 95% CI 0·03-0·22]; IPD caused by any serotype: 81·6 per 100 000 vs 15·3 per 100 000 [0·32, 0·17-0·60]). PCV10-type IPD also declined in the post-vaccination era in unvaccinated age groups (<2 months [no cases in the postvaccine era], 5-14 years [adjusted IRR 0·26, 95% CI 0·11-0·59], and ≥15 years [0·19, 0·07-0·51]). Incidence of non-PCV10-type IPD did not differ between eras. In children younger than 5 years, PCV10-type carriage declined between eras (age-standardised adjusted prevalence ratio 0·26, 95% CI 0·19-0·35) and non-PCV10-type carriage increased (1·71, 1·47-1·99). INTERPRETATION: Introduction of PCV10 in Kenya, accompanied by a catch-up campaign, resulted in a substantial reduction in PCV10-type IPD in children and adults without significant replacement disease. Although the catch-up campaign is likely to have brought forward the benefits by several years, the study suggests that routine infant PCV10 immunisation programmes will provide substantial direct and indirect protection in low-income settings in tropical Africa. FUNDING: Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance and The Wellcome Trust of Great Britain.

Effect of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia and clinically-defined pneumonia in Kenyan children: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) are highly protective against invasive pneumococcal disease caused by vaccine serotypes, but the burden of pneumococcal disease in low-income and middle-income countries is dominated by pneumonia, most of which is non-bacteraemic. We examined the effect of 10-valent PCV on the incidence of pneumonia in Kenya. METHODS: We linked prospective hospital surveillance for clinically-defined WHO severe or very severe pneumonia at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, from 2002 to 2015, to population surveillance at Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, comprising 45 000 children younger than 5 years. Chest radiographs were read according to a WHO standard. A 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in Kenya in January, 2011. In Kilifi, there was a three-dose catch-up campaign for infants (aged <1 year) and a two-dose catch-up campaign for children aged 1-4 years, between January and March, 2011. We estimated the effect of PCV10 on the incidence of clinically-defined and radiologically-confirmed pneumonia through interrupted time-series analysis, accounting for seasonal and temporal trends. FINDINGS: Between May 1, 2002 and March 31, 2015, 44 771 children aged 2-143 months were admitted to Kilifi County Hospital. We excluded 810 admissions between January and March, 2011, and 182 admissions during nurses' strikes. In 2002-03, the incidence of admission with clinically-defined pneumonia was 2170 per 100 000 in children aged 2-59 months. By the end of the catch-up campaign in 2011, 4997 (61·1%) of 8181 children aged 2-11 months had received at least two doses of PCV10 and 23 298 (62·3%) of 37 416 children aged 12-59 months had received at least one dose. Across the 13 years of surveillance, the incidence of clinically-defined pneumonia declined by 0·5% per month, independent of vaccine introduction. There was no secular trend in the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia over 8 years of study. After adjustment for secular trend and season, incidence rate ratios for admission with radiologically-confirmed pneumonia, clinically-defined pneumonia, and diarrhoea (control condition), associated temporally with PCV10 introduction and the catch-up campaign, were 0·52 (95% CI 0·32-0·86), 0·73 (0·54-0·97), and 0·63 (0·31-1·26), respectively. Immediately before PCV10 was introduced, the annual incidence of clinically-defined pneumonia was 1220 per 100 000; this value was reduced by 329 per 100 000 at the point of PCV10 introduction. INTERPRETATION: Over 13 years, admissions to Kilifi County Hospital for clinically-defined pneumonia decreased sharply (by 27%) in association with the introduction of PCV10, as did the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia (by 48%). The burden of hospital admissions for childhood pneumonia in Kilifi, Kenya, has been reduced substantially by the introduction of PCV10. FUNDING: Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance and Wellcome Trust.

Effect of Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccination without a booster dose on invasive H influenzae type b disease, nasopharyngeal carriage, and population immunity in Kilifi, Kenya: a 15-year regional surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) conjugate vaccine, delivered as a three-dose series without a booster, was introduced into the childhood vaccination programme in Kenya in 2001. The duration of protection and need for a booster dose are unknown. We aimed to assess vaccine effectiveness, the impact of the vaccine on nasopharyngeal carriage, and population immunity after introduction of conjugate Hib vaccine in infancy without a booster dose in Kenya. METHODS: This study took place in the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), an area of Kenya that has been monitored for vital events and migration every 4 months since 2000. We analysed sterile site cultures for H influenzae type b from children (aged ≤12 years) admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital (KCH) from Jan 1, 2000, through to Dec 31, 2014. We determined the prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage by undertaking cross-sectional surveys in random samples of KHDSS residents (of all ages) once every year from 2009 to 2012, and measured Hib antibody concentrations in five cross-sectional samples of children (aged ≤12 years) within the KHDSS (in 1998, 2000, 2004-05, 2007, and 2009). We calculated incidence rate ratios between the prevaccine era (2000-01) and the routine-use era (2004-14) and defined vaccine effectiveness as 1 minus the incidence rate ratio, expressed as a percentage. FINDINGS: 40,482 children younger than 13 years resident in KHDSS were admitted to KCH between 2000 and 2014, 38,206 (94%) of whom had their blood cultured. The incidence of invasive H influenzae type b disease in children younger than 5 years declined from 62·6 (95% CI 46·0-83·3) per 100,000 in 2000-01 to 4·5 (2·5-7·5) per 100,000 in 2004-14, giving a vaccine effectiveness of 93% (95% CI 87-96). In the final 5 years of observation (2010-14), only one case of invasive H influenzae type b disease was detected in a child younger than 5 years. Nasopharyngeal H influenzae type b carriage was detected in one (0·2%) of 623 children younger than 5 years between 2009 and 2012. In the 2009 serosurvey, 92 (79%; 95% CI 70-86) of 117 children aged 4-35 months had long-term protective antibody concentrations. INTERPRETATION: In this region of Kenya, use of a three-dose primary series of Hib vaccine without a booster dose has resulted in a significant and sustained reduction in invasive H influenzae type b disease. The prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage is low and the profile of Hib antibodies suggests that protection wanes only after the age at greatest risk of disease. Although continued surveillance is important to determine whether effective control persists, these findings suggest that a booster dose is not currently required in Kenya. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Wellcome Trust, European Society for Paediatric Infectious Diseases, and National Institute for Health Research.

Implementation of a Cloud-Based Electronic Medical Record to Reduce Gaps in the HIV Treatment Continuum in Rural Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Electronic medical record (EMR) systems are increasingly being adopted to support the delivery of health care in developing countries and their implementation can help to strengthen pathways of care and close gaps in the HIV treatment cascade by improving access to and use of data to inform clinical and public health decision-making. METHODS: This study implemented a novel cloud-based electronic medical record system in an HIV outpatient setting in Western Kenya and evaluated its impact on reducing gaps in the HIV treatment continuum including missing data and patient eligibility for ART. The impact of the system was assessed using a two-sample test of proportions pre- and post-implementation of EMR-based data verification and clinical decision support. RESULTS: Significant improvements in data quality and provision of clinical care were recorded through implementation of the EMR system, helping to ensure patients who are eligible for HIV treatment receive it early. A total of 2,169 and 764 patient records had missing data pre-implementation and post-implementation of EMR-based data verification and clinical decision support respectively. A total of 1,346 patients were eligible for ART, but not yet started on ART, pre-implementation compared to 270 patients pre-implementation. CONCLUSION: EMR-based data verification and clinical decision support can reduce gaps in HIV care, including missing data and eligibility for ART. A cloud-based model of EMR implementation removes the need for local clinic infrastructure and has the potential to enhance data sharing at different levels of health care to inform clinical and public health decision-making. A number of issues, including data management and patient confidentiality, must be considered but significant improvements in data quality and provision of clinical care are recorded through implementation of this EMR model.

Implementation of a cloud-based electronic medical record for maternal and child health in rural Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Complete and timely health information is essential to inform public health decision-making for maternal and child health, but is often lacking in resource-constrained settings. Electronic medical record (EMR) systems are increasingly being adopted to support the delivery of health care, and are particularly amenable to maternal and child health services. An EMR system could enable the mother and child to be tracked and monitored throughout maternity shared care, improve quality and completeness of data collected and enhance sharing of health information between outpatient clinic and the hospital, and between clinical and public health services to inform decision-making. METHODS: This study implemented a novel cloud-based electronic medical record system in a maternal and child health outpatient setting in Western Kenya between April and June 2013 and evaluated its impact on improving completeness of data collected by clinical and public health services. The impact of the system was assessed using a two-sample test of proportions pre- and post-implementation of EMR-based data verification. RESULTS: Significant improvements in completeness of the antenatal record were recorded through implementation of EMR-based data verification. A difference of 42.9% in missing data (including screening for hypertension, tuberculosis, malaria, HIV status or ART status of HIV positive women) was recorded pre- and post-implementation. Despite significant impact of EMR-based data verification on data completeness, overall screening rates in antenatal care were low. CONCLUSION: This study has shown that EMR-based data verification can improve the completeness of data collected in the patient record for maternal and child health. A number of issues, including data management and patient confidentiality, must be considered but significant improvements in data quality are recorded through implementation of this EMR model.

Stage of HIV presentation at initial clinic visit following a community-based HIV testing campaign in rural Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The Kenyan Ministry of Health and partners implemented a community-based integrated prevention campaign (IPC) in Western Kenya in 2008. The aim of this study was to determine whether the IPC, compared to Voluntary Counselling and Testing (VCT) services, was able to identify HIV positive individuals earlier in the clinical course of HIV infection following testing. METHODS: A total of 1,752 adults aged over 15 years who tested HIV positive through VCT services or the IPC, and subsequently registered at initial clinic visit between September 2008 and September 2010, were considered in the analysis. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to assess the association of CD4 count and WHO clinical stage of HIV infection at first clinic appointment with age group, gender, marital status and HIV testing source. RESULTS: Male gender and marital status were independently associated with late HIV presentation (WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 or CD4 count ≤ 350 cells/µl) at initial clinic visit. Patients testing HIV positive during the IPC had significantly higher mean CD4 count at initial clinic visit compared to individuals who tested HIV positive via VCT services. Patients testing HIV positive during the IPC had more than two times higher odds of presenting early with CD4 count greater than 350 cells/µl (adjusted OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.28 - 3.61, p = 0.004) and presenting early with WHO clinical stage 1 or 2 of HIV infection (adjusted OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.24 - 4.60, p = 0.01) at initial clinic visit compared to individuals who tested HIV positive via VCT services. CONCLUSION: The community-based integrated prevention campaign identified HIV positive individuals earlier in the course of HIV infection, compared to Voluntary Counselling and Testing services. Community-based campaigns, such as the IPC, may be able to assist countries to achieve earlier testing and initiation of ART in the course of HIV infection. Improving referral mechanisms and strengthening linkages between HIV testing and treatment services remain a challenge and electronic medical record (EMR) systems may support monitoring of patients throughout the HIV care and treatment continuum.

Population effect of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae in Kilifi, Kenya: findings from cross-sectional carriage studies.

BACKGROUND: The effect of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) in developed countries was enhanced by indirect protection of unvaccinated individuals, mediated by reduced nasopharyngeal carriage of vaccine-serotype pneumococci. The potential indirect protection of 10-valent PCV (PCV10) in a developing country setting is unknown. We sought to estimate the effectiveness of introduction of PCV10 in Kenya against carriage of vaccine serotypes and its effect on other bacteria. METHODS: PCV10 was introduced into the infant vaccination programme in Kenya in January, 2011, accompanied by a catch-up campaign in Kilifi County for children aged younger than 5 years. We did annual cross-sectional carriage studies among an age-stratified, random population sample in the 2 years before and 2 years after PCV10 introduction. A nasopharyngeal rayon swab specimen was collected from each participant and was processed in accordance with WHO recommendations. Prevalence ratios of carriage before and after introduction of PCV10 were calculated by log-binomial regression. FINDINGS: About 500 individuals were enrolled each year (total n=2031). Among children younger than 5 years, the baseline (2009-10) carriage prevalence was 34% for vaccine-serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae, 41% for non-vaccine-serotype Streptococcus pneumoniae, and 54% for non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae. After PCV10 introduction (2011-12), these percentages were 13%, 57%, and 40%, respectively. Adjusted prevalence ratios were 0·36 (95% CI 0·26-0·51), 1·37 (1·13-1·65), and 0·62 (0·52-0·75), respectively. Among individuals aged 5 years or older, the adjusted prevalence ratios for vaccine-serotype and non-vaccine-serotype S pneumoniae carriage were 0·34 (95% CI 0·18-0·62) and 1·13 (0·92-1·38), respectively. There was no change in prevalence ratio for Staphylococcus aureus (adjusted prevalence ratio for those <5 years old 1·02, 95% CI 0·52-1·99, and for those ≥5 years old 0·90, 0·60-1·35). INTERPRETATION: After programmatic use of PCV10 in Kilifi, carriage of vaccine serotypes was reduced by two-thirds both in children younger than 5 years and in older individuals. These findings suggest that PCV10 introduction in Africa will have substantial indirect effects on invasive pneumococcal disease. FUNDING: GAVI Alliance and Wellcome Trust.

Kenya AIDS Indicator Surveys 2007 and 2012: implications for public health policies for HIV prevention and treatment.

AIDS Indicator Surveys are standardized surveillance tools used by countries with generalized HIV epidemics to provide, in a timely fashion, indicators for effective monitoring of HIV. Such data should guide responses to the HIV epidemic, meet program reporting requirements, and ensure comparability of findings across countries and over time. Kenya has conducted 2 AIDS Indicator Surveys, in 2007 (KAIS 2007) and 2012-2013 (KAIS 2012). These nationally representative surveys have provided essential epidemiologic, sociodemographic, behavioral, and biologic data on HIV and related indicators to evaluate the national HIV response and inform policies for prevention and treatment of the disease. We present a summary of findings from KAIS 2007 and KAIS 2012 and the impact that these data have had on changing HIV policies and practice.

Population genetic structure of Streptococcus pneumoniae in Kilifi, Kenya, prior to the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in Kenya in 2011. Introduction of any PCV will perturb the existing pneumococcal population structure, thus the aim was to genotype pneumococci collected in Kilifi before PCV10. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using multilocus sequence typing (MLST), we genotyped >1100 invasive and carriage pneumococci from children, the largest collection genotyped from a single resource-poor country and reported to date. Serotype 1 was the most common serotype causing invasive disease and was rarely detected in carriage; all serotype 1 isolates were members of clonal complex (CC) 217. There were temporal fluctuations in the major circulating sequence types (STs); and although 1-3 major serotype 1, 14 or 23F STs co-circulated annually, the two major serotype 5 STs mainly circulated independently. Major STs/CCs also included isolates of serotypes 3, 12F, 18C and 19A and each shared ≤ 2 MLST alleles with STs that circulate widely elsewhere. Major CCs associated with non-PCV10 serotypes were predominantly represented by carriage isolates, although serotype 19A and 12F CCs were largely invasive and a serotype 10A CC was equally represented by invasive and carriage isolates. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the pre-PCV10 population genetic structure in Kilifi will allow for the detection of changes in prevalence of the circulating genotypes and evidence for capsular switching post-vaccine implementation.

Human aflatoxin exposure in Kenya, 2007: a cross-sectional study.

Aflatoxins contaminate approximately 25% of agricultural products worldwide. They can cause liver failure and liver cancer. Kenya has experienced multiple aflatoxicosis outbreaks in recent years, often resulting in fatalities. However, the full extent of aflatoxin exposure in Kenya has been unknown. Our objective was to quantify aflatoxin exposure across Kenya. We analysed aflatoxin levels in serum specimens from the 2007 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey - a nationally representative, cross-sectional serosurvey. KAIS collected 15,853 blood specimens. Of the 3180 human immunodeficiency virus-negative specimens with ≥1 mL sera, we randomly selected 600 specimens stratified by province and sex. We analysed serum specimens for aflatoxin albumin adducts by using isotope dilution MS/MS to quantify aflatoxin B1-lysine, and normalised with serum albumin. Aflatoxin concentrations were then compared by demographic, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics. We detected serum aflatoxin B1-lysine in 78% of serum specimens (range =

Risk factors for severe Rift Valley fever infection in Kenya, 2007.

A large Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreak occurred in Kenya from December 2006 to March 2007. We conducted a study to define risk factors associated with infection and severe disease. A total of 861 individuals from 424 households were enrolled. Two hundred and two participants (23%) had serologic evidence of acute RVF infection. Of these, 52 (26%) had severe RVF disease characterized by hemorrhagic manifestations or death. Independent risk factors for acute RVF infection were consuming or handling products from sick animals (odds ratio [OR] = 2.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.78-3.61, population attributable risk percentage [PAR%] = 19%) and being a herds person (OR 1.77, 95% CI = 1.20-2.63, PAR% = 11%). Touching an aborted animal fetus was associated with severe RVF disease (OR = 3.83, 95% CI = 1.68-9.07, PAR% = 14%). Consuming or handling products from sick animals was associated with death (OR = 3.67, 95% CI = 1.07-12.64, PAR% = 47%). Exposures related to animal contact were associated with acute RVF infection, whereas exposures to mosquitoes were not independent risk factors.

Bacteraemia in Kenyan children with sickle-cell anaemia: a retrospective cohort and case-control study.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, more than 90% of children with sickle-cell anaemia die before the diagnosis can be made. The causes of death are poorly documented, but bacterial sepsis is probably important. We examined the risk of invasive bacterial diseases in children with sickle-cell anaemia. METHODS: This study was undertaken in a rural area on the coast of Kenya, with a case-control approach. We undertook blood cultures on all children younger than 14 years who were admitted from within a defined study area to Kilifi District Hospital between Aug 1, 1998, and March 31, 2008; those with bacteraemia were defined as cases. We used two sets of controls: children recruited by random sampling in the same area into several studies undertaken between Sept 1, 1998, and Nov 30, 2005; and those born consecutively within the area between May 1, 2006, and April 30, 2008. Cases and controls were tested for sickle-cell anaemia retrospectively. FINDINGS: We detected 2157 episodes of bacteraemia in 38 441 admissions (6%). 1749 of these children with bacteraemia (81%) were typed for sickle-cell anaemia, of whom 108 (6%) were positive as were 89 of 13 492 controls (1%). The organisms most commonly isolated from children with sickle-cell anaemia were Streptococcus pneumoniae (44/108 isolates; 41%), non-typhi Salmonella species (19/108; 18%), Haemophilus influenzae type b (13/108; 12%), Acinetobacter species (seven of 108; 7%), and Escherichia coli (seven of 108; 7%). The age-adjusted odds ratio for bacteraemia in children with sickle-cell anaemia was 26.3 (95% CI 14.5-47.6), with the strongest associations for S pneumoniae (33.0, 17.4-62.8), non-typhi Salmonella species (35.5, 16.4-76.8), and H influenzae type b (28.1, 12.0-65.9). INTERPRETATION: The organisms causing bacteraemia in African children with sickle-cell anaemia are the same as those in developed countries. Introduction of conjugate vaccines against S pneumoniae and H influenzae into the childhood immunisation schedules of African countries could substantially affect survival of children with sickle-cell anaemia. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK.

Information for decision making from imperfect national data: tracking major changes in health care use in Kenya using geostatistics.

BACKGROUND: Most Ministries of Health across Africa invest substantial resources in some form of health management information system (HMIS) to coordinate the routine acquisition and compilation of monthly treatment and attendance records from health facilities nationwide. Despite the expense of these systems, poor data coverage means they are rarely, if ever, used to generate reliable evidence for decision makers. One critical weakness across Africa is the current lack of capacity to effectively monitor patterns of service use through time so that the impacts of changes in policy or service delivery can be evaluated. Here, we present a new approach that, for the first time, allows national changes in health service use during a time of major health policy change to be tracked reliably using imperfect data from a national HMIS. METHODS: Monthly attendance records were obtained from the Kenyan HMIS for 1 271 government-run and 402 faith-based outpatient facilities nationwide between 1996 and 2004. A space-time geostatistical model was used to compensate for the large proportion of missing records caused by non-reporting health facilities, allowing robust estimation of monthly and annual use of services by outpatients during this period. RESULTS: We were able to reconstruct robust time series of mean levels of outpatient utilisation of health facilities at the national level and for all six major provinces in Kenya. These plots revealed reliably for the first time a period of steady nationwide decline in the use of health facilities in Kenya between 1996 and 2002, followed by a dramatic increase from 2003. This pattern was consistent across different causes of attendance and was observed independently in each province. CONCLUSION: The methodological approach presented can compensate for missing records in health information systems to provide robust estimates of national patterns of outpatient service use. This represents the first such use of HMIS data and contributes to the resurrection of these hugely expensive but underused systems as national monitoring tools. Applying this approach to Kenya has yielded output with immediate potential to enhance the capacity of decision makers in monitoring nationwide patterns of service use and assessing the impact of changes in health policy and service delivery.

The decline in paediatric malaria admissions on the coast of Kenya.

BACKGROUND: There is only limited information on the health impact of expanded coverage of malaria control and preventative strategies in Africa. METHODS: Paediatric admission data were assembled over 8.25 years from three District Hospitals; Kilifi, Msambweni and Malindi, situated along the Kenyan Coast. Trends in monthly malaria admissions between January 1999 and March 2007 were analysed using several time-series models that adjusted for monthly non-malaria admission rates and the seasonality and trends in rainfall. RESULTS: Since January 1999 paediatric malaria admissions have significantly declined at all hospitals. This trend was observed against a background of rising or constant non-malaria admissions and unaffected by long-term rainfall throughout the surveillance period. By March 2007 the estimated proportional decline in malaria cases was 63% in Kilifi, 53% in Kwale and 28% in Malindi. Time-series models strongly suggest that the observed decline in malaria admissions was a result of malaria-specific control efforts in the hospital catchment areas. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of a changing disease burden on the Kenyan coast and that the most parsimonious explanation is an expansion in the coverage of interventions such as the use of insecticide-treated nets and the availability of anti-malarial medicines. While specific attribution to intervention coverage cannot be computed what is clear is that this area of Kenya is experiencing a malaria epidemiological transition.