Setting research priorities for global pandemic preparedness: An international consensus and comparison with ChatGPT's output.

Background: In this priority-setting exercise, we sought to identify leading research priorities needed for strengthening future pandemic preparedness and response across countries. Methods: The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) used the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method to identify research priorities for future pandemic preparedness. Eighty experts in global health, translational and clinical research identified 163 research ideas, of which 42 experts then scored based on five pre-defined criteria. We calculated intermediate criterion-specific scores and overall research priority scores from the mean of individual scores for each research idea. We used a bootstrap (n = 1000) to compute the 95% confidence intervals. Results: Key priorities included strengthening health systems, rapid vaccine and treatment production, improving international cooperation, and enhancing surveillance efficiency. Other priorities included learning from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, managing supply chains, identifying planning gaps, and promoting equitable interventions. We compared this CHNRI-based outcome with the 14 research priorities generated and ranked by ChatGPT, encountering both striking similarities and clear differences. Conclusions: Priority setting processes based on human crowdsourcing - such as the CHNRI method - and the output provided by ChatGPT are both valuable, as they complement and strengthen each other. The priorities identified by ChatGPT were more grounded in theory, while those identified by CHNRI were guided by recent practical experiences. Addressing these priorities, along with improvements in health planning, equitable community-based interventions, and the capacity of primary health care, is vital for better pandemic preparedness and response in many settings.

Russian Biodiversity Collections: A Professional Opinion Survey.

Biodiversity collections are important vehicles for protecting endangered wildlife in situations of adverse anthropogenic influence. In Russia, there are currently a number of institution- and museum-based biological collections, but there are no nation-wide centres of biodiversity collections. In this paper, we report on the results of our survey of 324 bioconservation, big-data, and ecology specialists from different regions of Russia in regard to the necessity to create several large national biodiversity centres of wildlife protection. The survey revealed specific goals that have to be fulfilled during the development of these centres for the protection and restoration of endangered wildlife species. The top three problems/tasks (topics) are the following: (1) the necessity to create large national centres for different types of specimens; (2) the full sequencing and creation of different "omic" (genomic, proteomic, transcriptomic, etc.) databases; (3) full digitisation of a biodiversity collection/centre. These goals may constitute a guideline for the future of biodiversity collections in Russia that would be targeted at protecting and restoring endangered species. With the due network service level, the translation of the website into English, and permission from the regulator (Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russian Federation), it can also become an international project.

Using Alternative Sources of Energy for Decarbonization: A Piece of Cake, but How to Cook This Cake?

Few analytical or research works claim that the negative impact of improper use of ASEs may be comparable with that of hydrocarbons and sometimes even greater. It has become a common view that "green" energy (ASE) is clean, safe and environmentally friendly (eco-friendly) in contrast with "black" energy (hydrocarbons). We analyzed 144 works on systemic and/or comparative research of the modern and prospective ASE: biofuels, hydrogen, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, geothermal power, oceanic thermal power, tidal power, wind wave power and nuclear fusion power. We performed our analysis within the Spaceship Earth paradigm. We conclude that there is no perfect ASE that is always eco-friendly. All ASEs may be dangerous to the planet considered as a closed and isolated unit ("spaceship") if they are used in an inconsistent manner. This is not in the least a reason to deny them as prospective sources of energy. Using all ASEs in different proportions in various regions of the planet, where their harm to the planet and humanity can be minimized and, on the contrary, their efficiency maximized, would give humanity the opportunity to decarbonize the Earth, and make the energy transition in the most effective way.

Evolutionary Challenges to Humanity Caused by Uncontrolled Carbon Emissions: The Stockholm Paradigm.

This review paper discusses the Stockholm Paradigm (SP) as a theoretical framework and practical computational instrument for studying and assessing the risk of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) as a result of climate change. The SP resolves the long-standing parasite paradox and explains how carbon emissions in the atmosphere increase parasites' generalization and intensify host switches from animals to humans. The SP argues that the growing rate of novel EID occurrence caused by mutated zoonotic pathogens is related to the following factors brought together as a unified issue of humanity: (a) carbon emissions and consequent climate change; (b) resettlement/migration of people with hyper-urbanization; (c) overpopulation; and (d) human-induced distortion of the biosphere. The SP demonstrates that, in an evolutionary way, humans now play a role migratory birds once played in spreading parasite pathogens between the three Earth megabiotopes (northern coniferous forest belt; tropical/equatorial rainforest areas; and hot/cold deserts), i.e., the role of "super-spreaders" of parasitic viruses, bacteria, fungi and protozoa. This makes humans extremely vulnerable to the EID threat. The SP sees the +1.0-+1.2 °C limit as the optimal target for the slow, yet feasible curbing of the EID hazard to public health (150-200 years). Reaching merely the +2.0 °C level will obviously be an EID catastrophe, as it may cause two or three pandemics each year. We think it useful and advisable to include the SP-based research in the scientific repository of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, since EID appearance and spread are indirect but extremely dangerous consequences of climate change.

Research priorities to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions to the functioning of societies and their health systems. Prior to the pandemic, health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) were particularly stretched and vulnerable. The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) sought to systematically identify priorities for health research that would have the potential to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in LMICs. Methods: The Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method was used to identify COVID-19-related research priorities. All ISoGH members were invited to participate. Seventy-nine experts in clinical, translational, and population research contributed 192 research questions for consideration. Fifty-two experts then scored those questions based on five pre-defined criteria that were selected for this exercise: 1) feasibility and answerability; 2) potential for burden reduction; 3) potential for a paradigm shift; 4) potential for translation and implementation; and 5) impact on equity. Results: Among the top 10 research priorities, research questions related to vaccination were prominent: health care system access barriers to equitable uptake of COVID-19 vaccination (ranked 1st), determinants of vaccine hesitancy (4th), development and evaluation of effective interventions to decrease vaccine hesitancy (5th), and vaccination impacts on vulnerable population/s (6th). Health care delivery questions also ranked highly, including: effective strategies to manage COVID-19 globally and in LMICs (2nd) and integrating health care for COVID-19 with other essential health services in LMICs (3rd). Additionally, the assessment of COVID-19 patients' needs in rural areas of LMICs was ranked 7th, and studying the leading socioeconomic determinants and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in LMICs using multi-faceted approaches was ranked 8th. The remaining questions in the top 10 were: clarifying paediatric case-fatality rates (CFR) in LMICs and identifying effective strategies for community engagement against COVID-19 in different LMIC contexts. Interpretation: Health policy and systems research to inform COVID-19 vaccine uptake and equitable access to care are urgently needed, especially for rural, vulnerable, and/or marginalised populations. This research should occur in parallel with studies that will identify approaches to minimise vaccine hesitancy and effectively integrate care for COVID-19 with other essential health services in LMICs. ISoGH calls on the funders of health research in LMICs to consider the urgency and priority of this research during the COVID-19 pandemic and support studies that could make a positive difference for the populations of LMICs.

Public Policy Measures to Increase Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Rate in Russia.

The total vaccination rate remains relatively low in Russia as of March 2022 (around 55%, with around 20% in some regions). In the paper, we study the reasons for it. We communicate the results of our survey aimed at detecting reasons for the relatively low anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rate in Russia (47.1% as of mid-January 2022) and suggest potential measures to increase the level of confidence in the Russian vaccination campaign. A total of 14,310 users exhibited interest to participate in the research (16.84% of the total number of invitations sent in the Russian social network VKontakte). After the sample set repair, only 5822 (40.68% of those who agreed to participate) responses were suitable for the research, and they composed the final set. The age range of the respondents was 16-51 years old (y.o.) with a mean of 29.1 ± 10.6 y.o. The proportion of the female gender in responses was 44.23%. A total of 2454 persons (42.15%) expressed their hesitant, cautious, or negative attitude towards vaccine uptake. Of the 2454 persons with cautious attitude towards vaccination, only 928 (37.82%) were concerned about the quality of the Russian vaccines. A total of 1323 individuals (53.91%) supported one or more conspiracy beliefs. A total of 5064 (86.98% of the whole set) showed cautious or negative attitude towards the planned introduction of a nationwide system of vaccination certification/verification based on QR codes. The main social factors that hinder the Russian vaccination campaign are: vexation over the lack of desire of officials to receive feedback from the general population regarding vaccination, wide support for conspiracy beliefs, and controversy over the QR code-based digital system. To elevate the vaccination rate in Russia, the following steps may be taken: social encouragement of those who support vaccination, increase in transparency of the vaccination campaign, acceptance of both digital and paper vaccination certificates, increase in participation of society in vaccination-related discussions, public disclosure of vaccine composition, and avoidance of excessive digitalization of data in the vaccination campaign.

8806 Russian patients demonstrate T cell count as better marker of COVID-19 clinical course severity than SARS-CoV-2 viral load.

The article presents a comparative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral load (VL), T lymphocyte count and respiratory index PaO2:FiO2 ratio as prospective markers of COVID-19 course severity and prognosis. 8806 patients and asymptomatic carriers were investigated in time interval 15 March-19 December 2020. T cell count demonstrated better applicability as a marker of aggravating COVID-19 clinical course and unfavourable disease prognosis than SARS-CoV-2 VL or PaO2:FiO2 ratio taken alone. Using T cell count in clinical practice may provide an opportunity of early prediction of deteriorating a patient's state.

Trends in adaptation of fifteen European countries population to SARS-CoV-2 in March-May 2020: Can Taiwanese experience be adopted?

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the work is to analyze population adaptation to SARS-CoV-2 in Europe in March-May 2020, predict herd immunity formation in the nearest several months on the basis of our SIR modified epidemiological model of the virus spread and elaborate recommendations to governments regarding a second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Outer (1,006,512 RT-PCR tests results for SARS-CoV-2) and proprietary (34,660 respiratory samples) epidemiological data was used. Fifteen European countries were studied. Dates of research: March 2 - May 22, 2020. RESULTS: As of April 21, 2020, the mean population infection rate (PIR) for the European countries considered, was 9.66%. It decreased to 6.85% by May 22, 2020. The model predicted 5.68% PIR, giving accuracy of 79.40%. SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number is limited by an extremum that may be observed for closed communities. A concept of effective reproduction number is introduced as a function of r0 with maximum at r0 = 4.671 and value reff. = 0.315 for the full-lockdown mode and r0 = 5.539 and reff. = 0.552 for the no-lockdown mode of SARS-CoV-2 containment. Full-lockdown and no-lockdown modes resulted in the outcomes not strikingly different from each other in terms of herd immunity values. CONCLUSION: In case of a second wave of COVID-19 disease in Europe, it will coincide with seasonal common cold surge, spanning from mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021, with a median in November-December 2020. Strict epidemiological surveillance must be observed in Europe at that time.

HIV/SARS-CoV-2 co-infection: T cell profile, cytokine dynamics and role of exhausted lymphocytes.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to investigate if there is synergy in HIV infection and COVID-19 in their influence on human immunity, if there is an exacerbation of HIV patients' immune status caused by SARS-CoV-2; and if HIV infection without antiretroviral therapy (ART) leads to a more serious COVID-19 course than HIV infection with ART. DESIGN: Anonymised blood samples and clinical data were collected in 47 hospitals, clinics and medical centres in six Russian cities/regions in the period from 20 March to 15 June 2020. Three hundred and seventy-six HIV/COVID-19 patients were studied (171 without ART and 205 with ART). The control group consisted of 382 SARS-CoV-2-positive patients without HIV infection. Lymphocyte and cytokine amounts were measured by flow cytometry and ELISA. This work is a retrospective study. RESULTS: COVID-19 led to rapid augmentation of the process of T-cell exhaustion initially caused by HIV, and this T cell degradation was most pronounced in patients without ART. A rise in IL-10 and TGFß serum concentrations was observed. Diminishing CD4+/CD8+ cell and Th1/Th2 cell ratios characteristic for HIV progression were accompanied by a surge in exhausted T cell count with simultaneous exacerbation of COVID-19-related respiratory distress. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infection without ART may be a very serious comorbidity of COVID-19, whereas immunity of HIV/COVID-19 patients with proper ART is not generally affected by SARS-CoV-2. HIV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 are likely to exhibit a synergic effect, and exhausted T lymphocyte dynamics may be its effective marker.

SARS-CoV-2-related pneumonia cases in pneumonia picture in Russia in March-May 2020: Secondary bacterial pneumonia and viral co-infections.

BACKGROUND: We are communicating the results of investigating statistics on SARS-CoV-2-related pneumonias in Russia: percentage, mortality, cases with other viral agents, cases accompanied by secondary bacterial pneumonias, age breakdown, clinical course and outcome. METHODS: We studied two sampling sets (Set 1 and Set 2). Set 1 consisted of results of testing 3382 assays of out-patients and hospital patients (5-88 years old) with community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia of yet undetermined aetiology. Set 2 contained results of 1204 assays of hospital patients (12-94 years old) with pneumonia and COVID-19 already diagnosed by molecular biological techniques in test laboratories. The results were collected in twelve Russian cities/provinces in time range 2 March - 5 May 2020. Assays were analysed for 10 bacterial, 15 viral, 2 fungal and 2 parasitic aetiological agents. RESULTS: In Set 1, 4.35% of total pneumonia cases were related to SARS-CoV-2, with substantially larger proportion (18.75%) of deaths of pneumonia with COVID-19 diagnosed. However, studying Set 2, we revealed that 52.82% patients in it were also positive for different typical and atypical aetiological agents usually causing pneumonia. 433 COVID-19 patients (35.96%) were tested positive for various bacterial aetiological agents, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus and Haemophilus influenzae infections accounting for the majority of secondary pneumonia cases. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2, a low-pathogenic virus itself, becomes exceptionally dangerous if secondary bacterial pneumonia attacks a COVID-19 patient as a complication. An essential part of the severest complications and mortality associated with COVID-19 in Russia in March-May 2020, may be attributed to secondary bacterial pneumonia and to a much less extent viral co-infections. The problem of hospital-acquired bacterial infection is exceptionally urgent in treating SARS-CoV-2 patients. The risk of secondary bacterial pneumonia and its further complications, should be given very serious attention in combating SARS-CoV-2.

Creating and applying SIR modified compartmental model for calculation of COVID-19 lockdown efficiency.

We propose a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modified model for Coronavirus disease - 2019 (COVID-19) spread to estimate the efficacy of lockdown measures introduced during the pandemic. As input data, we used COVID-19 epidemiological information collected in fifteen European countries either in private surveys or using official statistics. Thirteen countries implemented lockdown measures, two countries (Sweden, Iceland) not. As output parameters, we studied herd immunity level and time of formation. Comparison of these parameters was used as an indicator of effectiveness / ineffectiveness of lockdown measures. In the absence of a medical vaccine, herd immunity may be regarded as a factor of population adaptation to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2, the viral pathogen causing COVID-19 disease (SARS-CoV-2), and hence COVID-19 spreading stop. We demonstrated that there is no significant difference between lockdown and no-lockdown modes of COVID-19 containment, in terms of both herd immunity level and the time of achieving its maximum. The rationale for personal and business lockdowns may be found in the avoidance of healthcare system overburdening. However, lockdowns do not prevent any virus with droplet transmission (including SARS-CoV-2) from spreading. Therefore, in case of a future viral pathogen emergence, lockdown measures efficiency should not be overestimated, as it was done almost universally in the world during COVID-19 pandemic.

Adaptation of a Russian population to SARS-CoV-2: Asymptomatic course, comorbidities, mortality, and other respiratory viruses - A reply to Fear versus Data.

This study was conducted to assess the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Russia and the adaptation of the population to the virus in March to June 2020. Two groups were investigated: 1) 12 082 individuals already proven positive for SARS-CoV-2 (clinical information was studied); 2) 7864+4458 individuals with suspected respiratory infections (polymerase chain reaction [PCR] tests and clinical information were studied). In the latter, SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals comprised 5.37% in March and 11.42% in June 2020. Several viral co-infections were observed for SARS-CoV-2. Rhinoviruses accounted for the largest proportion of co-infections (7.91% of samples were SARS-CoV-2-positive); followed by respiratory syncytial virus (7.03%); adenoviruses (4.84%); metapneumoviruses (3.29%); parainfluenza viruses (2.42%); enterovirus D68 (1.10%) and other viruses (entero-, echo-, parecho-) (<1%). Average SARS-CoV-2 case fatality rate in the group of 12 537 individuals was determined to be 0.6% (in contrast to official Russian government statistics of 1.5% mortality). This rate is within the range of mortality caused by other common seasonal respiratory viruses (0.01-2.21% in Russia in 2012 to 2020). Most fatalities occurred in individuals with comorbidities, as for other respiratory viruses. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 asymptomatic carriers was 56.68% in March and 70.67% in June 2020. This new pathogen presents a substantial risk to human beings as it was not contained at the start of its outbreak in Wuhan and spread worldwide. However, surveillance, prevention and treatment must be strictly evidence-based and not dictated by fear.

Adaptation to SARS-CoV-2 under stress: Role of distorted information.

BACKGROUND: Since the time of global SARS-CoV-2 spread across the earth in February 2020, most of countries faced the problem of massive stress of their healthcare systems. In many cases, the structural stress was a result of incorrect allocation of medical care resources. In turn, this misallocation resulted from fear and apprehensions that superseded thorough calculations. A key role in exacerbating the healthcare sector overburdening was played by misleading information on the virus and disease caused by it. In the current paper, we study the situation in Russian healthcare system and advance recommendations how to avoid further crises. MATERIALS AND METHODS: (a) Surveying the medical personnel (231 doctors, 317 nurses and 355 ambulance medical workers of lower levels) in five hospitals and six ambulance centres in Moscow. (b) Content analysis of 3164 accounts in Russian segment of social networks (VKontakte, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Odnoklassniki); official and unofficial media (TV, informational webpages). RESULTS: We revealed positive-feedback loop that threatened the sustainability of Russian care sector. The main knot was occupied by incorrect/exaggerated media coverage of COVID-19. General public scared by misinformation in media and social networks, started to panic. This negative social background undermined the productivity of a significant part of medical workers who were afraid of COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS: The most serious problems of Russian healthcare sector related to COVID-19 pandemic, were informational problems. The exaggerated information on COVID-19 had big negative influence upon Russian society and healthcare system, despite SARS-CoV-2 relatively low epidemiological hazard.