Evaluating the Accuracy of 2020 Census Block-Level Estimates in California.

In this study, we provide an assessment of data accuracy from the 2020 Census. We compare block-level population totals from a sample of 173 census blocks in California across three sources: (1) the 2020 Census, which has been infused with error to protect respondent confidentiality; (2) the California Neighborhoods Count, the first independent enumeration survey of census blocks; and (3) projections based on the 2010 Census and subsequent American Community Surveys. We find that, on average, total population counts provided by the U.S. Census Bureau at the block level for the 2020 Census are not biased in any consistent direction. However, subpopulation totals defined by age, race, and ethnicity are highly variable. Additionally, we find that inconsistencies across the three sources are amplified in large blocks defined in terms of land area or by total housing units, blocks in suburban areas, and blocks that lack broadband access.

Reconstruction of age distributions from differentially private census data.

The age distribution of a population is important for understanding the demand and provision of labor and services, and as a denominator for calculating key age-specific rates such as fertility and mortality. In the US, the most important source of information on age distributions is the decennial census, but a new disclosure avoidance system (DAS) based on differential privacy will inject noise into the data, potentially compromising its utility for small areas and minority populations. In this paper, we explore the question whether there are statistical methods that can be applied to noisy age distributions to enhance the research uses of census data without compromising privacy. We apply a non-parametric method for smoothing with naive or informative priors to age distributions from the 2010 Census via demonstration data which have had the US Census Bureau's implementation of differential privacy applied. We find that smoothing age distributions can increase the fidelity of the demonstration data to previously published population counts by age. We discuss implications for uses of data from the 2020 US Census and potential consequences for the measurement of population dynamics, health, and disparities.

Implications of China's future bride shortage for the geographical distribution and social protection needs of never-married men.

Because sex ratios at birth have risen sharply in China in recent decades, an increasing proportion of men will be unable to find a bride, and will face old age without the support of a wife and children. We project the proportions of never-married men and their geographical distribution in China in the coming decades. Our projections assume that two tendencies in current marriage patterns will persist: that women will continue to migrate to wealthier areas and to prefer men with better prospects. We find that, by 2030, more than 20 per cent of men in China aged 30-39 will never have married, and that the proportion will be especially high among poor men in low-income provinces that are least able to provide social protection programmes. The projected geographic concentration of bachelors could be socially disruptive, and the results suggest a need to expand the coverage and central financing of social protection programmes.

Ethnicity, Russification, and Excess Mortality in Kazakhstan.

Russians experience higher adult mortality than Central Asians despite higher socioeconomic status. This study exploits Kazakhstan's relatively heterogeneous population and geographic diversity to study ethnic differences in cause-specific mortality. In multivariate regression, all-cause mortality rates for Russian men is 27% higher than for Kazakh men, and alcohol-related death rates among Russian men are 2.5 times higher (15% and 4.1 times higher for females, respectively). Significant mortality differentials exist by ethnicity for external causes and alcohol-related causes of death. Adult mortality among Kazakhs is higher than previously found among Kyrgyz and lower than among Russians. The results suggest that ethnic mortality differentials in Central Asia may be related to the degree of russification, which could be replicating documented patterns of alcohol consumption in non-Russian populations.