ABSTRACT
Associations of housing, population, and agriculture census variables, and presence near public places were retrospectively evaluated as potential risk factors for canine leptospirosis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The sample population included 94 dogs positive for leptospirosis based on a positive polymerase chain reaction test for leptospires on urine, isolation of leptospires on urine culture, a single reciprocal serum titer of 12,800 or greater, or a four-fold rise in reciprocal serum titers over a 2-4 week period; and 185 dogs negative for leptospirosis based on a negative polymerase chain reaction test and reciprocal serum titers less than 400. Multivariable logistic regressions revealed different risk factors among different census units; however, houses lacking complete plumbing facilities [OR=2.80, 95% C.I.=1.82, 4.32 (census unit, block group); OR=1.36, 95% C.I.=1.28, 1.45 (census tract); OR=3.02, 95% C.I.=2.60, 3.52 (county)]; and poverty status by age (18-64) [OR=2.04, 95% C.I.=1.74, 2.39 (block group); OR=1.53, 95% C.I.=1.41, 1.67 (census tract); and OR=1.62, 95% C.I.=1.50, 1.76 (county)] were consistent risk factors for all census units. Living within 2500 m of a university/college and parks/forests were also significantly associated with leptospirosis status in dogs. Dogs that live under these circumstances are at higher risk for leptospirosis and pet owners should consider vaccination.
Subject(s)
Dog Diseases/epidemiology , Leptospira/isolation & purification , Leptospirosis/veterinary , Agglutination Tests/veterinary , Animals , Case-Control Studies , Censuses , Cities , DNA, Bacterial/genetics , Dog Diseases/blood , Dog Diseases/urine , Dogs , Female , Geographic Information Systems , Housing , Human Activities , Humans , Kansas/epidemiology , Leptospirosis/blood , Leptospirosis/epidemiology , Leptospirosis/urine , Logistic Models , Male , Nebraska/epidemiology , Polymerase Chain Reaction/veterinary , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Seasons , Socioeconomic Factors , Urban PopulationABSTRACT
New habitat-based models for spread of hantavirus are developed which account for interspecies interaction. Existing habitat-based models do not consider interspecies pathogen transmission, a primary route for emergence of new infectious diseases and reservoirs in wildlife and man. The modeling of interspecies transmission has the potential to provide more accurate predictions of disease persistence and emergence dynamics. The new models are motivated by our recent work on hantavirus in rodent communities in Paraguay. Our Paraguayan data illustrate the spatial and temporal overlaps among rodent species, one of which is the reservoir species for Jabora virus and others which are spillover species. Disease transmission occurs when their habitats overlap. Two mathematical models, a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) and a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, are developed for spread of hantavirus between a reservoir and a spillover species. Analysis of a special case of the ODE model provides an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number, R(0), such that if R(0)<1, then the pathogen does not persist in either population but if R(0)>1, pathogen outbreaks or persistence may occur. Numerical simulations of the CTMC model display sporadic disease incidence, a new behavior of our habitat-based model, not present in other models, but which is a prominent feature of the seroprevalence data from Paraguay. Environmental changes that result in greater habitat overlap result in more encounters among various species that may lead to pathogen outbreaks and pathogen establishment in a new host.
