Restoration of marine ecosystems: Understanding possible futures for optimal outcomes.

Accelerating declines in the extent, quality and functioning of the world's marine ecosystems have generated an upsurge in focus on practical solutions, with ecosystem restoration becoming an increasingly attractive mitigation strategy for systems as diverse as coral reefs, mangroves and tidal flats. While restoration is popular because it promises positive outcomes and a return to something approaching unimpacted condition and functioning, it involves substantial public and private investment, both for the initial restoration activity and for on-going maintenance of the restored asset. This investment often affords one big chance to get things right before irretrievable damage is done. As a result, precise, well considered and accountable decision-making is needed to determine the specific focus for restoration, the scale of restoration, the location for deploying restoration activities, and indeed whether or not restoration is necessary or even possible. We explore the environmental/ecological considerations and constraints governing optimal decisions about the nature, location and prioritisation of restoration activities in marine ecosystems, and in particular the constraints on achieving understanding of possible futures and the likelihood of achieving them. We conclude that action must be informed by a context-specific understanding of the historical situation, the current situation, the constraints on change, the range of potential outcome scenarios, and the potential futures envisioned.

A case-control study of the possible association between oral contraceptives and malignant melanoma.

In a case-control study, we investigated 169 women aged 15-49 years with malignant melanoma notified to the Oxford and South Western cancer registries during the years 1971-1976, together with 507 matched controls. Data about medical, reproductive, drug and smoking histories were obtained both by reviewing general practitioner (GP) records and from the women themselves by postal questionnaires. There was no significant evidence of any overall increase in the risk of melanoma in oral contraceptive (OC) users (data from GP records-ever use vs never use, relative risk (RR) 1.34, 95% confidence limits 0.92-1.96; corresponding data from postal questionnaires-RR 1.13, limits 0.73-1.75). However, although not significant, the risk estimated from data in the postal questionnaires was higher in women who had used OCs for 5 years or more (use greater than or equal to 5 years vs never use, RR 1.57, limits 0.83-3.03). Previously demonstrated risk factors for melanoma, such as fair skin, blond or red hair and Celtic origin were found to be commoner in the cases than in the controls. Data from the Oxford/Family Planning Association contraceptive study were also examined. Unexpectedly there was a strong suggestion of a negative association between OC use and melanoma risk, but the analysis was based on only 12 women with the disease.