A Bayesian approach for calculating variable total maximum daily loads and uncertainty assessment.

To account for both variability and uncertainty in nonpoint source pollution, one dimensional water quality model was integrated with Bayesian statistics and load duration curve methods to develop a variable total maximum daily load (TMDL) for total nitrogen (TN). Bayesian statistics was adopted to inversely calibrate the unknown parameters in the model, i.e., area-specific export rate (E) and in-stream loss rate coefficient (K) for TN, from the stream monitoring data. Prior distributions for E and K based on published measurements were developed to support Bayesian parameter calibration. Then the resulting E and K values were used in water quality model for simulation of catchment TN export load, TMDL and required load reduction along with their uncertainties in the ChangLe River agricultural watershed in eastern China. Results indicated that the export load, TMDL and required load reduction for TN synchronously increased with increasing stream water discharge. The uncertainties associated with these estimates also presented temporal variability with higher uncertainties for the high flow regime and lower uncertainties for the low flow regime. To assure 90% compliance with the targeted in-stream TN concentration of 2.0mgL(-1), the required load reduction was determined to be 1.7 × 10(3), 4.6 × 10(3), and 14.6 × 10(3)kg TNd (-1) for low, median and high flow regimes, respectively. The integrated modeling approach developed in this study allows decision makers to determine the required load reduction for different TN compliance levels while incorporating both flow-dependent variability and uncertainty assessment to support practical adaptive implementation of TMDL programs.

Spatio-temporal variations of nitrogen in an agricultural watershed in eastern China: catchment export, stream attenuation and discharge.

Using the monthly hydrogeochemical data of ChangLe River system from 2004 to 2008, total nitrogen (TN) export load (S(n)) from nonpoint sources (NPS) to stream and in-stream attenuation load (A(L)) was estimated by the inverse and forward format of an existing in-stream nutrient transport equation, respectively. Estimated S(n) contributed 96 ± 2% of TN entering the river system, while A(L) reduced the input TN by 23 ± 14% in average. In-stream TN attenuation efficiency in high flow periods (10 ± 5% in average for the entire river system) was much lower than that in low flow periods (39 ± 17%). TN attenuation efficiency in tributaries (28 ± 16% in average) was much higher than that in mainstream (11 ± 8%). Hydrological conditions are important in determining the spatio-temporal distributions of NPS TN export, stream attenuation and discharge. Increasing the water residence time might be a practical method for mitigating stream TN.

Combined inverse modeling approach and load duration curve method for variable nitrogen total maximum daily load development in an agricultural watershed.

PURPOSE: Nonpoint sources (NPS) pollution has been an important cause for water quality impairment worldwide. To take the temporal variations of both NPS pollution and in-stream attenuation into consideration, an inverse modeling approach and the load duration curve (LDC) method were combined for variable nutrient total maximum daily load (TMDL) development. METHODS: Water quality and hydrological parameters were monitored monthly along the ChangLe River system in 2004-2008. The catchment NPS export load (EL) and TMDL for total nitrogen (TN) were estimated by the inverse format of an existing stream nutrient transport equation. The LDC method was used to describe the variability of EL, TMDL, requiring load (RLR) and percent (the ratio between the RLR and the EL, RPR) reduction, and then to set the variable requiring reductions under different uncertainties. RESULTS: Although both EL and TMDL for TN increased with stream flow, the increments of EL became larger than that of TMDL with increasing stream flow. Thus, RLR also increased with stream flow. The contribution of in-stream attenuation capacity for TN TMDL, which decreased with stream flow, occupied 37.3 ± 10.4% of the TMDL for the entire river system. To assure 90% compliance with the target in-stream TN level, the RLR and RPR was 1.16 × 10(3)-19.02 × 10(3) kg day(-1) and 53.6-59.9% for different flow regimes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: For the NPS pollution-dominated watershed, temporal variable expressions of TMDL and requiring reduction are both necessary. This combined approach provides researchers and managers with a simple but efficient tool for variable TMDL development.

[Inversion formula of one-dimensional water quality equation for the export loads of nonpoint sources pollution in headwater area].

An inversion formula for the export loads of nonpoint sources pollution in headwater area was established based on one-dimensional water quality equation, and it was used to calculate the pollution loads for tributaries in the headwater catchment of Laohutan Reservoir, in Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province of China. Monte Carlo method was adopted to determine the sensitivity about each input parameter in the inversion formula. Because each sensitive parameter can be measured directly in the inversion formula, so that this approach can decreased calculation error, which is often caused by the parameter estimation. Furthermore, the inversion formula can be adopted to calculate pollution loading on any time scale. Monthly nonpoint sources pollution export loads in 2007 were calculated by the model in the research catchment. Results showed that pollution loads in stream were significantly positive related with flow rates (r > 0. 90, p < 0.01), and the flow rate was the most sensitive factor in the model, followed by the nutrient concentration and background concentration at the stream end. While, comprehensive degradation coefficient and flow velocity contributed very little influence to the model uncertainty.

[Uncertainty analysis of water environmental capacity in the nonpoint source polluted river].

Based on the one-dimension model for river water environmental capacity (WEC) and the statistical analysis of the measured hydrological and water quality variables, a uncertainty analysis method for the WEC in nonpoint source polluted river was developed, which included the sensitivity analysis for input parameters of the model and the probability distributions analysis for the WEC using Monte Carlo simulation approach. The method, which described the uncertainty derived from the adopted information of the river system and the randomicity from the occurrence of nonpoint source pollution, could provide different WEC combined with reliabilities for different hydrological seasons. As a case study, the total nitrogen (TN) WEC in the Changle River located in southeast China was calculated using the method. Results indicated that the TN WEC with 90% of reliability were 487.9, 949.8 and 1392.8 kg x d(-1) in dry season, average season and flood season, respectively, and the dilution effect of river water flow accounted for the main content of WEC. In order to satisfy water quality target of the river, about 1258.3-3591.2 kg x d(-1) of current TN quantity that entered into the river should be reduced in watershed, and the largest reducing quantity of TN was occurred during flood season. The uncertainty method, which reflected hydrology and water quality variations in the nonpoint source polluted river, provided a more reliable and efficient method for the WEC calculation.

Seasonal variations of nitrogen and phosphorus retention in an agricultural drainage river in East China.

BACKGROUND, AIM, AND SCOPE: Riverine retention decreases loads of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in running water. It is an important process in nutrient cycling in watersheds. However, temporal riverine nutrient retention capacity varies due to changes in hydrological, ecological, and nutrient inputs into the watershed. Quantitative information of seasonal riverine N and P retention is critical for developing strategies to combat diffuse source pollution and eutrophication in riverine and coastal systems. This study examined seasonal variation of riverine total N (TN) and total P (TP) retention in the ChangLe River, an agricultural drainage river in east China. METHODS: Water quality, hydrological parameters, and hydrophyte coverage were monitored along the ChangLe River monthly during 2004-2006. Nutrient export loads (including chemical fertilizer, livestock, and domestic sources) entering the river from the catchment area were computed using an export coefficient model based on estimated nutrient sources. Riverine TN and TP retention loads (RNRL and RPRL) were estimated using mass balance calculations. Temporal variations in riverine nutrient retention were analyzed statistically. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Estimated annual riverine retention loads ranged from 1,538 to 2,127 t year(-1) for RNRL and from 79.4 to 90.4 t year(-1) for RPRL. Monthly retention loads varied from 6.4 to 300.8 t month(-1) for RNRL and from 1.4 to 15.3 t month(-1) for RPRL. Both RNRL and RPRL increased with river flow, water temperature, hydrophyte coverage, monthly sunshine hours, and total TN and TP inputs. Dissolved oxygen concentration and the pH level of the river water decreased with RNRL and RPRL. Riverine nutrient retention ratios (retention as a percentage of total input) were only related to hydrophyte coverage and monthly sunshine hours. Monthly variations in RNRL and RPRL were functions of TN and TP loads. CONCLUSIONS: Riverine nutrient retention capacity varied with environmental conditions. Annual RNRL and RPRL accounted for 30.3-48.3% and 52.5-71.2%, respectively, of total input TN and TP loads in the ChangLe River. Monthly riverine retention ratios were 3.5-88.7% for TN and 20.5-92.6% for TP. Hydrophyte growth and coverage on the river bed is the main cause for seasonal variation in riverine nutrient retention capacity. The total input TN and TP loads were the best indicators of RNRL and RPRL, respectively. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: High riverine nutrient retention capacity during summer due to hydrophytic growth is favorable to the avoidance of algal bloom in both river systems and coastal water in southeast China. Policies should be developed to strictly control nutrient applications on agricultural lands. Strategies for promoting hydrophyte growth in rivers are desirable for water quality management.

Relationship between catchment characteristics and nitrogen forms in Cao-E River Basin, Eastern China.

The distribution of different nitrogen forms and their spatial and temporal variations in different pollution types of tributaries or reaches were investigated. Based on the catchments characteristics the tributaries or reaches can be classified into 4 types, including headwater in mountainous areas (type I), agricultural non-point source (NPS) pollution in rural areas (type II), municipal and industrial pollution in urban areas (type III), and combined pollution in main stream (type IV). Water samples were collected monthly from July 2003 to June 2006 in the Cao-E River Basin in Zhejiang, eastern China. The concentrations of NO3(-)-N, NH4(+)-N, and total nitrogen (TN) were measured. The mean concentrations of NO3(-)-N were decreased in the sequence type IV > type II > type I > type I, whereas, NH4(+)-N, total organic nitrogen (TON), and TN were in the sequence: type III > type IV > type II > type I. In headwater and rural reaches, CNO3(-)-N was much higher than CNH4(+)-N. In urban reaches, TON and NH4(+)-N were the main forms, accounting for 54.7% and 32.1% of TN, respectively. In the whole river system, CNH4(+)-N decreased with increasing distance from cities, and CNO3(-)-N increased with the increasing area of farmland in the catchments. With increased river flow, CNO3(-)-N increased and CNH4(+)-N decreased in all types of reaches, while the variations of CTON and CTN were different. For TN, the concentration may be decreased with the increase of river flow, but the export load always increased.

[Water environmental capacity calculation model for the rivers in drinking water source conservation area].

Based on the one-dimension model for water environmental capacity (WEC) in river, a new model for the WEC estimation in river-reservoir system was developed in drinking water source conservation area (DWSCA). In the new model, the concept was introduced that the water quality target of the rivers in DWSCA was determined by the water quality demand of reservoir for drinking water source. It implied that the WEC of the reservoir could be used as the water quality control target at the reach-end of the upstream rivers in DWSCA so that the problems for WEC estimation might be avoided that the differences of the standards for a water quality control target between in river and in reservoir, such as the criterions differences for total phosphorus (TP)/total nitrogen (TN) between in reservoir and in river according to the National Surface Water Quality Standard of China (GB 3838-2002), and the difference of designed hydrology conditions for WEC estimation between in reservoir and in river. The new model described the quantitative relationship between the WEC of drinking water source and of the river, and it factually expressed the continuity and interplay of these low water areas. As a case study, WEC for the rivers in DWSCA of Laohutan reservoir located in southeast China was estimated using the new model. Results indicated that the WEC for TN and TP was 65.05 t x a(-1) and 5.05 t x a(-1) in the rivers of the DWSCA, respectively. According to the WEC of Laohutan reservoir and current TN and TP quantity that entered into the rivers, about 33.86 t x a(-1) of current TN quantity should be reduced in the DWSCA, while there was 2.23 t x a(-1) of residual WEC of TP in the rivers. The modeling method was also widely applicable for the continuous water bodies with different water quality targets, especially for the situation of higher water quality control target in downstream water body than that in upstream.

[Estimation and allocation of water environmental capacity in nonpoint source polluted river].

Based on the investigation of the application and emission quantities (QAE) of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) for nonpoint sources in river catchment' s area, included fertilizer applications, livestock and living pollutants emissions, the quantities of TN and TP entered the river were computed by means of export coefficient model in Changle River, southeast China. Self-purification capacities of TN and TP in the reach were also estimated in terms of input-output balance analysis method. According to the provisions of water function planning in the river, the water environment residual capacity (WERC) or the demand for reducing the application and emission (DRAE) of nitrogen and phosphorus in the corresponding catchment were monthly estimated, and WERC and DRAE were respectively allocated among the pollution sources. Results indicated that about 28.8% of TN loads and 51.2% of TP loads could be self-purified respectively in the reach, i. e., purification of 775.9 t a(-1) for TN and 30.9 t a(-1) for TP. Seasonal variations of the self-purification for the pollutants not only resulted from riverine hydrological and ecological conditions, but also affected by the pollution loading. According to the demand of the water quality protection in the reach, about 1581.0 t a(-1) QAE of TN had to reduce in Changle catchment. The maximum demand for the reducing QAE of TN was the fertilizer application (1047.4 t a(-1)), and the highest ratio for the reducing QAE of TN was livestock-poultry breeding (32.4%). There was about 2335.7 t a(-1) WERC for TP in the reach. The largest DRAE of nitrogen was during mid-water season and the least WERC of TP was during higher-water season.

Spatial and temporal variations of water quality in Cao-E River of eastern China.

Evaluation and analysis of water quality variations were performed with integrated consideration of water quality parameters, hydrological-meteorologic and anthropogenic factors in Cao-E River, Zhejiang Province of China. Cao-E River system has been polluted and the water quality of some reaches are inferior to Grade V according to National Surface Water Quality Standard of China (GB2002). However, mainly polluted indices of each tributary and mainstream are different. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in the water are the main polluted indices for mainstream that varies from 1.52 to 45.85 mg/L and 0.02 to 4.02 mg/L, respectively. TN is the main polluted indices for Sub-watershed I, II, IV and V (0.76 to 18.27 mg/L). BOD5 (0.36 to 289.5 mg/L), CODMn (0.47 to 78.86 mg/L), TN (0.74 to 31.09 mg/L) and TP (0 to 3.75 mg/L) are the main polluted indices for Sub-watershed III. There are tow pollution types along the river including nonpoint source pollution and point source pollution types. Remarkably temporal variations with a few spatial variations occur in nonpoint pollution type reaches (including mainstream, Sub-watershed I and II) that mainly drained by arable field and/or dispersive rural dwelling district, and the maximum pollutant concentration appears in flooding seasons. It implied that the runoff increases the pollutant concentration of the water in the nonpoint pollution type reaches. On the other hand, remarkably spatial variations occur in the point pollution type reaches (include Sub-watershed III, IV and V) and the maximum pollutant concentration appears in urban reaches. The runoff always decreases the pollutant concentration of the river water in the seriously polluted reaches that drained by industrial point sewage. But for the point pollution reaches resulted from centralized town domestic sewage pipeline and from frequent shipping and digging sands, rainfall always increased the concentration of pollutant (TN) in the river water too. Pollution controls were respectively suggested for these tow types according to different pollution causes.