ABSTRACT
BackgroundAs the number of COVID-19 cases in the US continues to rise and hospitals are experiencing personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages, healthcare workers have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19 infection. Since COVID-19 testing is now available, some have raised the question of whether we should be routinely testing asymptomatic healthcare workers. MethodsUsing publicly available data on COVID-19 infections and emergency department visits, as well as internal hospital staffing information, we generated a mathematical model to predict the impact of periodic COVID-19 testing in asymptomatic members of the emergency department staff in regions affected by COVID-19 infection. We calculated various transmission constants based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship data, used a logistic model to calculate new infections, and we created a Markov model according to average COVID-19 incubation time. ResultsOur model predicts that after 30 days, with a transmission constant of 1.219e-4 new infections per person2, weekly COVID-19 testing of healthcare workers (HCW) would reduce new HCW and patient infections by 5.1% and bi-weekly testing would reduce both by 2.3%. At a transmission constant of 3.660e-4 new infections per person,2 weekly testing would reduce infections by 21.1% and bi-weekly testing would reduce infections by 9.7-9.8%. For a lower transmission constant of 4.067e-5 new infections per person2, weekly and biweekly HCW testing would result in a 1.54% and 0.7% reduction in infections respectively. ConclusionPeriodic COVID-19 testing for emergency department staff in regions that are heavily-affected by COVID-19 and/or facing resource constraints may reduce COVID-19 transmission significantly among healthcare workers and previously-uninfected patients.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundAs the number of suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US continues to rise, the US surgeon general, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and several specialty societies have issued recommendations to consider canceling elective surgeries. However, these recommendations have also faced controversy and opposition. MethodsUsing previously published information and publicly available data on COVID-19 infections, we calculated a transmission rate and generated a mathematical model to predict a lower bound for the number of healthcare-acquired COVID-19 infections that could be prevented by canceling or postponing elective outpatient surgeries in Washington state. ResultsOur model predicts that over the course of 30 days, at least 75.9 preventable patient infections and at least 69.3 preventable healthcare worker (HCW) infections would occur in WA state alone if elective outpatient procedures were to continue as usual. ConclusionCanceling elective outpatient surgeries during the COVID-19 pandemic could prevent a large number of patient and healthcare worker infections.
