ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: Based on the apple acreage and output data of 23 provinces in China, the LMDI decomposition method and the barycenter analysis model were used to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of apple production in China from 1978 to 2016. The results showed that the apple acreage and output continued to increase, and the apple production layout has moved to south-westward; Shaanxi, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Gansu, Hebei, Liaoning, and Xinjiang were the main contributors to the apple output increase in China; yield contributed more to apple output increase, the increase of yield was a significant contributing factor to the apple output growth in 17 provinces, whereas the expansion of apple acreage was a significant contributing factor in the other 6 provinces; the barycenter of apple acreage and output respectively moved to the southwest by 506.63 kilometers and 574.12 kilometers, and the barycenter of apple production gradually shifted to the Loess Plateau. To stabilize the effective supply of apple and maintain industrial security, the policymakers should attach importance to the fundamental role of technological progress in the development of the apple industry, and bring into play the technological progress, economic, social, and environmental effects of apple industry agglomeration by optimizing the apple production layout and strengthening policy guidance and regulatory measures.
RESUMO: Com base nos dados de área cultivada e produção de maçã de 23 províncias na China, o método de decomposição do LMDI e o modelo de análise de barcenter foram utilizados para analisar sistematicamente as características espaço-temporais da produção de maçã na China entre 1978 e 2016. Os resultados mostraram que a área cultivada de maçã e a produção continuou a aumentar, e o layout da produção da maçã mudou para o Sudoeste; Shaanxi, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Gansu, Hebei, Liaoning e Xinjiang foram os principais contribuintes para o aumento da produção de maçãs na China; o rendimento contribuiu mais para o aumento da produção de maçã, o aumento do rendimento foi fator de contribuição significativo para o crescimento da produção de maçã em 17 províncias, enquanto a expansão da área cultivada de maçã foi fator de contribuição significativo nas outras 6 províncias; o baricentro da área cultivada e a produção de maçãs se deslocaram para o Sudoeste em 506,63 quilômetros e 574,12 quilômetros respectivamente. O baricentro da produção de maçãs mudou gradualmente para o platô de Loess. Para estabilizar o fornecimento efetivo de maçã e manter a segurança industrial, os formuladores de políticas devem atribuir importância ao papel fundamental do progresso tecnológico no desenvolvimento da indústria da maçã e colocar em jogo o progresso tecnológico, os efeitos econômicos, sociais e ambientais da indústria da maçã aglomeração, otimizando o layout da produção da maçã e fortalecendo a orientação política e as medidas regulatórias.
ABSTRACT
In the context of supply-side structural reform, revealing the characteristics of spatial-temporal dynamics and influencing factors of China's apple production layout is of great significance to ensure apple supply and demand balance and timely adjustment of industrial policies and regional layout strategies. Based on national and provincial apple production data from 1978 to 2016, this study used the apple production concentration index to analyse the evolution characteristics of regional apple production patterns in China. A theoretical analysis framework was established and a spatial econometric model was used to quantitatively explore the influencing factors of China's apple production layout. The results showed that, first, since the reform and opening-up policy, a general trend of fluctuating growth was found for apple production in China. The centre of apple production layout moved in the southwest direction, with the shift from the Bohai Bay region to the Loess Plateau region. Second, apple production had a significant spatial correlation, while the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually decreased. Third, these changes were significantly influenced by apple comparative income, infrastructure, policies, and climatic conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to continue optimizing and adjusting the apple spatial layout to enhance the technological progress and economic effect of the apple industry and to ensure the stability and balance of regional supply and demand.
