ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: To examine the association of baseline waist circumference (WC) and changes in WC with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality among elderly people. METHODS: A total of 30,041 eligible participants were included from a retrospective cohort in China. The same questionnaire, anthropometric and laboratory measurements were performed at baseline (2010) and the first follow-up (2013). The percent change in WC between baseline and the first follow-up was calculated to evaluate three years change of WC. We collected the occurrence of CVD and all-cause death from the first follow-up to December 31, 2018. Restricted cubic splines and Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to evaluate the relationship between baseline WC/ changes in WC and mortality. RESULTS: The dose-response relationships between baseline WC and CVD mortality were U- or J-shaped. In low WC group, compared with stable group, the fully adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for CVD mortality was 1.60 (95% CI: 1.24-2.06) in WC gain group among men. In normal WC group, the CVD mortality risk increased with WC gain (men: aHR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.36-2.56; women: aHR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.29-2.58). In moderate-high WC group, the CVD mortality risk increased with WC gain (men: aHR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.08-2.88; women: aHR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.04-2.05) and risk decreased with WC loss (men: aHR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.30-0.98; women: aHR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.37-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: For the elderly population, WC gain may increase CVD mortality risk regardless of baseline WC, whereas WC reduction could decrease the risk only in the moderate-high WC group.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Implementing the current guidelines for leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) provides significant health benefits, especially for middle-aged adults, but it is unclear whether LTPA also translates into cardiovascular health benefits among elderly people. Therefore, we aimed to assess the association of LTPA with the risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD), including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and all-cause mortality in an elderly population. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 32, 942 participants aged 60 years or older who participated in a health check-up programme in China between 2010 and 2018 were included. We evaluated the morbidity and mortality risks through the Cox regression model, competing risk model and restricted cubic spline model. RESULTS: During a median of 6.84 years of follow-up, there were 6, 857 elderly people with incident CVD; a total of 6, 324 deaths occurred due to all causes and 2, 060 deaths occurred due to CVD. Compared with the inactive group, reductions in CVD morbidity and mortality were observed, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.96) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.71-0.92) in the insufficiently active group, 0.86 (95% CI: 0.80-0.92) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.69-0.90) in the sufficiently active group, and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.70-0.89) and 0.58 (95% CI: 0.45-0.76) in the highly active group, respectively; but no significant reductions were observed in the very highly active group, with HRs of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.71-1.06) and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.70-1.40), respectively. Compared with the inactive group, reductions in all-cause mortality were also observed, with a HR of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.84-0.97) in the insufficiently active group, 0.82 (95% CI: 0.77-0.89) in the sufficiently active group, 0.77 (95% CI: 0.67- 0.87) in the highly active group, and 0.80 (95% CI: 0.64-0.98) in the very highly active group. A restricted cubic spline diagram showed that there was an L-shaped association between LTPA and the risk of all-cause mortality but a U-shaped or reverse J-shaped relationship between LTPA and the risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, especially stroke. In addition, a subgroup analysis showed that elderly population who consistently performed LTPA for ten years or more had a lower risk of morbidity and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In an elderly population, even insufficient activity is associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality and CVD, and moderate levels of LTPA may be optimal for CVD prevention. In addition, elderly people who consistently perform LTPA over several years may experience greater health benefits.
