Development of interpretable machine learning models to predict in-hospital prognosis of acute heart failure patients.

AIMS: In recent years, there has been remarkable development in machine learning (ML) models, showing a trend towards high prediction performance. ML models with high prediction performance often become structurally complex and are frequently perceived as black boxes, hindering intuitive interpretation of the prediction results. We aimed to develop ML models with high prediction performance, interpretability, and superior risk stratification to predict in-hospital mortality and worsening heart failure (WHF) in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, which enrolled 4056 patients with AHF, we developed prediction models for in-hospital mortality and WHF using information obtained on the first day of admission (demographics, physical examination, blood test results, etc.). After excluding 16 patients who died on the first or second day of admission, the original dataset (n = 4040) was split 4:1 into training (n = 3232) and test datasets (n = 808). Based on the training dataset, we developed three types of prediction models: (i) the classification and regression trees (CART) model; (ii) the random forest (RF) model; and (iii) the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model. The performance of each model was evaluated using the test dataset, based on metrics including sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and calibration slope. For the complex structure of the XGBoost model, we performed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, classifying patients into interpretable clusters. In the original dataset, the proportion of females was 44.8% (1809/4040), and the average age was 77.9 ± 12.0. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.3% (255/4040) and the WHF rate was 22.3% (900/4040) in the total study population. In the in-hospital mortality prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.816 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.815-0.818], surpassing the AUC values for the CART model (0.683, 95% CI: 0.680-0.685) and the RF model (0.755, 95% CI: 0.753-0.757). Similarly, in the WHF prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.766 (95% CI: 0.765-0.768), outperforming the AUC values for the CART model (0.688, 95% CI: 0.686-0.689) and the RF model (0.713, 95% CI: 0.711-0.714). In the XGBoost model, interpretable clusters were formed, and the rates of in-hospital mortality and WHF were similar among each cluster in both the training and test datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The XGBoost models with SHAP analysis provide high prediction performance, interpretability, and reproducible risk stratification for in-hospital mortality and WHF for patients with AHF.

Cobalt protoporphyrin promotes heme oxygenase 1 expression and ameliorates cardiac dysfunction in long-term fasting mice.

BACKGROUND: The association between malnutrition and cardiac dysfunction has been reported. Heme oxygenase (HO)-1 played protective roles in the animals functioning as a myocardial infarction, heart failure, or cardiomyopathy model. We hypothesized that the administration of HO-1 inducer, cobalt protoporphyrin (CoPP) reduces oxidative stress and ameliorates cardiac systolic dysfunction in long-term fasting mice. METHODS: C57BL/6 J mice were classified into three groups: fed mice (fed group), 48-h fasting mice with a single intraperitoneal injection of the corresponding vehicle (fasting group), and 48-h fasting mice with a single intraperitoneal injection of 5 mg/kg CoPP (CoPP group). RESULTS: The fasting group showed a significant increase in heme and 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (4HNE) protein in the heart tissue, and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) when compared with the fed group. The CoPP group showed significantly increased protein levels of nuclear factor-erythroid 2-related factor 2 and HO-1, and increased mRNA expression levels of HO-1, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma coactivator 1-alpha, forkhead box protein O1, sirtuin-1, cyclooxygenase 2, and superoxide dismutase 2, and reduced levels of heme and 4HNE protein when compared with the fasting group. LVEF were significantly higher in the CoPP group than in the fasting group. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of CoPP reduced heme accumulation and oxidative stress, and ameliorated cardiac systolic dysfunction in long-term fasting mice. This study suggests that heme accumulation may be associated with impaired cardiac function induced by long-term fasting and that HO-1 may be a key factor or therapeutic target.

Rheophytic Osmunda lancea (Osmundaceae) exhibits large flexibility in the petiole.

The riparian zone, found alongside rivers and streams, is a unique habitat characterized by its vulnerability to sudden floods following intense rainfall. To cope with these challenging conditions, a specific group of plants with linear and lanceolate lamina have adapted to thrive in these environments. Despite their unique ability to withstand the forceful water flow, the specific adaptive characteristics of the petioles, which support the lamina remain unknown. Our morphological, anatomical, and mechanical analyses on the petioles of Osmunda lancea (Osmundaceae) along the river and an inland sister species of O. japonica revealed that the petioles of O. lancea had a larger cell volume in subepidermal cortex and were more flexible than those of O. japonica.

The characteristics and outcomes in patients with acute heart failure who used tolvaptan: from KCHF registry.

AIMS: The use of tolvaptan is increasing in clinical practice in Japan. However, the characteristics of patients who used tolvaptan and the timing of its use in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are not fully elucidated. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among consecutive 4056 patients in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 3802 patients after excluding patients on dialysis, prior or unknown tolvaptan use at admission, and unknown timing of tolvaptan use, and we divided them into two groups: tolvaptan use (N = 773) and no tolvaptan use (N = 3029). The prevalence of tolvaptan use varied widely from 48.7% to 0% across the participating centres. Factors independently associated with tolvaptan use were diabetes, poor medical adherence, oedema, pleural effusion, hyponatraemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 , moderate/severe tricuspid regurgitation, dobutamine infusion within 24 h, and additional inotropes infusion beyond 24 h after admission. The mortality rate at 90 days after admission was significantly higher in the tolvaptan use group than in the no tolvaptan use group (14.3% vs. 8.6%, P = 0.049). However, after adjustment, the excess mortality risk of tolvaptan use relative to no tolvaptan use was no longer significant (hazard ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval = 0.77-3.02, P = 0.22). Patients with tolvaptan use had a longer hospital stay [median (interquartile range): 22 (15-34) days vs. 15 (11-21) days, P < 0.0001] and a higher prevalence of worsening renal failure (47.0% vs. 31.8%, P < 0.0001) and worsening heart failure (24.8% vs. 14.4%, P < 0.0001) than those without. CONCLUSIONS: AHF patients with tolvaptan use had more congestive status with poorer in-hospital outcomes and higher short-term mortality than those without tolvaptan use. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) and https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Effect of strong wind on laminas and petioles of Farfugium japonicum (L.) Kitam. var. japonicum (Asteraceae).

Farfugium japonicum (L.) Kitam. var. japonicum grows mainly in the coastal areas of Japan. Meteorological recording data from natural habitats were used to investigate the factors associated with the laminas and petioles of radical leaves of F. japonicum var. japonicum to avoid or resist higher wind stress. Our morphological and mechanical results indicated that petiole length and petiole cross-sectional area had a weak correlation with wind speed and breaking strength, and the petiole second area moment of inertia did not differ significantly among populations. However, both lamina area and petiole length per petiole cross-sectional area decreased with increasing wind speed, indicating that F. japonicum var. japonicum resisted or avoided an increase in wind speed outdoors by reducing the lamina area and petiole length per petiole cross-sectional area without qualitative changes in their petioles. The results of this study indicated that densely distributed recording stations of the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) by the Japan Meteorological Agency can be used for environmental adaptation studies of plants in the field using nearby plant populations.

Weight loss during follow-up in patients with acute heart failure: From the KCHF registry.

BACKGROUNDS: The prognostic implication of weight loss after discharge from acute heart failure (AHF) remains unclear. We sought to investigate the association of weight loss between discharge and 6-month visit with subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with AHF. METHODS: We analyzed 686 patients with AHF in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study derived from the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, and divided them into 2 groups based on the weight loss at 6-month index visit. We defined the weight loss as ≥ 5% decrease in body weight from discharge to 6-month index visit. RESULTS: There were 90 patients (13.1%) with a weight loss at 6-month visit. Patients in the weight loss group compared with those in the no weight loss group had higher body weight at discharge and lower body weight at 6-mont visit. Patients in the weight loss group had a lower systolic blood pressure, higher brain-type natriuretic peptide, lower serum albumin, lower hemoglobin, higher prevalence of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction at 6-month visit, and a lower prescription rate of inhibitors of renin-angiotensin system than those in the no weight loss group. The cumulative 6-month incidence of all-cause death was significantly higher in the weight loss group than in the no weight loss group (14.2% and 4.3%, log-rank P<0.001). The excess adjusted risk of the weight loss group relative to the no weight loss group remained significant for all-cause death (HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.01-5.65, P = 0.048). CONCLUSION: Body weight loss of ≥5% at 6-month visit after discharge was associated with subsequent all-cause death in patients with AHF.

Association between changes in loop diuretic dose and outcomes in acute heart failure.

AIMS: Little is known about the association between the starting of or dose changes in loop diuretics during acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalization and post-discharge outcomes. We investigated the clinical impact of starting loop diuretics and changing the loop diuretics dose during hospitalization on post-discharge outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, 3665 consecutive patients hospitalized for HF and discharged alive were included in this study. We analysed 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive and 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive. The primary outcome measure was all-cause death. Of the 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission, 1366 (71.7%) patients started loop diuretics during the index AHF hospitalization. Starting loop diuretics was not associated with lower post-discharge mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-1.25]. Of the 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission, loop diuretic dose was decreased in 23.8%, unchanged in 44.6%, and increased in 31.6% of the patients. Changes in the dose at discharge compared with no change in dose were not associated with lower risk of post-discharge mortality (decrease relative to no change: adjusted HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.76-1.28; increase relative to no change: adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.78-1.27). Compared with no loop diuretics at discharge, a loop diuretics dose of ≥80 mg at discharge was associated with higher post-discharge mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AHF, we found no association between the starting of loop diuretics and post-discharge outcomes and between dose changes and post-discharge outcomes.

A comparison between hospital follow-up and collaborative follow-up in patients with acute heart failure.

AIMS: There are no previous studies focusing on collaborative follow-ups between hospitals and clinics for patients discharged after acute heart failure (AHF) in Japan. The purpose of this study was to determine the status of collaboration between hospitals and clinics for patients with AHF in Japan and to compare patient characteristics and clinical outcomes using a large Japanese observational database. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 4056 consecutive patients hospitalized for AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 2862 patients discharged to go home, who were divided into 1674 patients (58.5%) followed up at hospitals with index hospitalization (hospital follow-up group) and 1188 (41.5%) followed up in a collaborative fashion with clinics or other general hospitals (collaborative follow-up group). The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization within 1 year after discharge. Previous hospitalization for HF and length of hospital stay longer than 15 days were associated with hospital follow-up. Conversely, ≥80 years of age, hypertension, and cognitive dysfunction were associated with collaborative follow-up. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome, all cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between the hospital and collaborative follow-up groups (31.6% vs. 29.6%, P = 0.51, 13.1% vs, 13.9%, P = 0.35, 8.4% vs. 8.2%, P = 0.96). Even after adjusting for confounders, the difference in risk for patients in the hospital follow-up group relative to those in the collaborative follow-up group remained insignificant for the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.97-1.27, P = 0.14, HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.91-1.33, P = 0.33, HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.87-1.05, P = 0.33). The cumulative 1-year incidence of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (25.5% vs. 21.3%, P = 0.02). The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01-1.39, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for AHF, 41.5% received collaborative follow-up after discharge. The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up, although risk of the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between groups.

Hemostatic function of cold-stored platelets in a thrombocytopenic rabbit bleeding model.

BACKGROUND: Transfusion of cold-stored platelet concentrates (CS-PCs) appears effective in massively bleeding patients. However, few studies have evaluated their in vivo hemostatic function in severe thrombocytopenia. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The in vivo function of plasma-depleted human PCs was evaluated in rabbits with a blocked reticuloendothelial system and busulfan-induced thrombocytopenia. On day 1, a human apheresis PC was processed in a platelet additive solution (PAS-PC) and split evenly for cold or room temperature storage (RTS). On days 3, 6, or 9, RTS- or CS-PAS-PCs were transfused (4.0 × 109 platelets/kg) after plasma depletion into two to four rabbits that developed adequate thrombocytopenia (<25 × 109 /L). Ear bleeding time was measured by two incisions in small veins. The hemostatic rate was defined as the percentage of rabbits achieving bleeding cessation within 600 s at either incision. The experiment was repeated using five different PCs on each storage day. RESULTS: The mean pre-transfusion rabbit platelet count was 8.6 ± 5.2 × 109 /L. The hemostatic rates with RTS- and CS-PAS-PCs were both 100% on day 3, 93 ± 15% and 73 ± 15% on day 6 (p = .07), and 65 ± 36% and 73 ± 37% on day 9 (p = .27), respectively, with no statistical differences. Total platelet counts were significantly lower after CS-PAS-PC than RTS-PAS-PC transfusion on all days (e.g., 58.7 ± 5.7 vs. 42.4 ± 14.7 × 109 /L, p = .0007, day 9), and did not reach 50 × 109 /L in several experiments. Platelet count increments correlated significantly with hemostatic efficacy for CS-PAS-PC transfusion only. DISCUSSION: CS-PAS-PCs might achieve similar hemostasis as RTS-PAS-PCs in thrombocytopenic patients with mild bleeding. Hemostatic efficacy could be improved by transfusing more CS-PAS-PCs.

Insomnia in patients with acute heart failure: from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: Insomnia is a known risk factor for heart failure (HF) and a predictor of cardiac events in HF patients, but the clinical significance of insomnia in patients with acute HF (AHF) is not adequately evaluated. This study aimed to investigate the association between insomnia and subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with AHF. METHODS: From the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, consecutive 3414 patients hospitalized for HF who were discharged alive were divided into the 2 groups at discharge: insomnia group and non-insomnia group. We compared baseline characteristics and 1 year clinical outcomes according to the presence of insomnia. The primary outcome measure was all-cause death. RESULTS: There were 330 patients (9.7%) and 3084 patients (90.3%) with and without insomnia, respectively. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, brain-type natriuretic peptide above median value at discharge (OR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.08-2.10, P = 0.02) and the presence of oedema at discharge (OR = 4.23, 95% CI = 2.95-6.07, P < 0.001) were positively associated with insomnia at discharge, whereas diuretics at discharge (OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.39-0.90, P = 0.01) were negatively associated with insomnia at discharge. The cumulative 1 year incidence of all-cause death was significantly higher in the insomnia group than in the non-insomnia group (25.1% vs. 16.2%, P < 0.001). Even after adjusting the confounders, the higher mortality risk of patients with insomnia relative to those without insomnia remained significant (HR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.24-1.94; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with insomnia at discharge were associated with a higher risk of mortality than those without insomnia at discharge.

Appetite loss at discharge from acute decompensated heart failure: Observation from KCHF registry.

OBJECTIVE: The complex link between nutritional status, protein and lipid synthesis, and immunity plays an important prognostic role in patients with heart failure. However, the association between appetite loss at discharge and long-term outcome remains unclear. METHODS: The Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry is a prospective cohort study that enrolled consecutive patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in Japan. We assessed 3528 patients alive at discharge, and for whom appetite and follow-up data were available. We compared one-year clinical outcomes in patients with and without appetite loss at discharge. RESULTS: In the multivariable logistic regression analysis using 19 clinical and laboratory factors with P value < 0.1 by univariate analysis, BMI < 22 kg/m2 (odds ratio (OR): 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-2.24, P = 0.01), CRP >1.0mg/dL (OR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.04-2.14, P = 0.03), and presence of edema at discharge (OR: 4.30, 95%CI: 2.99-6.22, P<0.001) were associated with an increased risk of appetite loss at discharge, whereas ambulatory status (OR: 0.57, 95%CI: 0.39-0.83, P = 0.004) and the use of ACE-I/ARB (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.50-0.98, P = 0.04) were related to a decreased risk in the presence of appetite loss. The cumulative 1-year incidence of all-cause death (primary outcome measure) was significantly higher in patients with appetite loss than in those without appetite loss (31.0% vs. 15.0%, P<0.001). The excess adjusted risk of appetite loss relative to no appetite loss remained significant for all-cause death (hazard ratio (HR): 1.63, 95%CI: 1.29-2.07, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Loss of appetite at discharge was associated with worse 1-year mortality in patients with ADHF. Appetite is a simple, reliable, and useful subjective marker for risk stratification of patients with ADHF.

Left atrial reverse remodeling improves risk stratification in patients with heart failure with recovered ejection fraction.

We aimed to investigate the relationship between left atrial (LA) reverse remodeling and prognosis of heart failure (HF) with recovered ejection fraction (EF) (HFrecEF). Among 1,246 patients with acute heart failure enrolled in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study, 397 patients with HF with mildly-reduced EF and with reduced EF at discharge were analyzed. Echocardiography was performed during the index hospitalization and at the 6-month follow-up after discharge. They were divided into non-HFrecEF (n = 227) and HFrecEF (n = 170) groups. The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause death or hospitalization for HF. The cumulative 180-day incidence of the primary outcome measure after follow-up echocardiography was significantly lower in the HFrecEF group than in the non-HFrecEF group (8.9% versus 23.4%, log-rank P = 0.0002). LA reverse remodeling was associated with a lower cumulative 6-month incidence of the primary outcome measure in the HFrecEF group (4.7% versus 18.0%; HR: 0.27, 95%CI: 0.09-0.79, P = 0.01), but not in the non-HFrecEF group (24.4% versus 22.6%; HR: 1.13, 95%CI: 0.65-1.96, P = 0.28) with a significant LA reverse remodeling-by-HFrecEF interaction (P for interaction = 0.02). Combination of left ventricular and atrial reverse remodeling may help in improving HF risk stratification.

Starting Neurohormonal Antagonists in Patients With Acute Heart Failure With Mid-Range and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: The clinical benefits of neurohormonal antagonists for patients with heart failure (HF) with mid-range and preserved ejection fraction (HFmrEF and HFpEF) are uncertain.Methods and Results: This study analyzed 858 consecutive patients with HFmrEF (EF: 40-49%) or HFpEF (EF ≥50%), who were hospitalized for acute HF, and who were discharged alive, and were not taking angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE)-I/ angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) or ß-blockers at admission. The study population was classified into 4 groups according to the status of prescription of ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker at discharge: no neurohormonal antagonist (n=342, 39.9%), ACE-I/ARB only (n=128, 14.9%), ß-blocker only (n=189, 22.0%), and both ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker (n=199, 23.2%) groups. The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome measure was 41.2% in the no neurohormonal antagonist group, 34.0% in the ACE-I/ARB only group, 28.6% in the ß-blocker only group, and 16.4% in the both ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker group (P<0.001). Compared with the no neurohormonal antagonist group, both the ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker groups were associated with a significantly lower risk for a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization (HR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.28-0.76, P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: In hospitalized patients with HFmrEF and HFpEF, starting both ACE-I/ARB and a ß-blocker was associated with a reduced risk of the composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization compared with patients not starting on an ACE-I/ARB or ß-blocker.

Changes in BNP levels from discharge to 6-month visit predict subsequent outcomes in patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the association between changes in brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) from discharge to 6-month visit and subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS: Among 1246 patients enrolled in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study nested from the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, this study population included 446 patients with available paired BNP data at discharge and 6-month index visit. This study population was classified into 3 groups by percent change in BNP from discharge to 6-month visit; the low tertile (≤-44%, N = 149), the middle tertile (>-44% and ≤22%, N = 149) and the high tertile (>22%, N = 148). FINDINGS: The cumulative 180-day incidence after the index visit of the primary outcome measure (a composite endpoint of all-cause death or hospitalization for HF) was significantly higher in the high and middle tertiles than in the low tertile (26.8% and 14.4% versus 6.9%, log-rank P<0.0001). The adjusted excess risk of the high tertile relative to the low tertile remained significant for the primary outcome measure (hazard ratio: 3.43, 95% confidence interval: 1.51-8.46, P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Percent change in BNP was associated with a subsequent risk for a composite of all-cause death and hospitalization for HF after adjustment of the absolute BNP values, suggesting that observing the change in BNP levels, in addition to absolute BNP levels themselves, helps us to manage patient with HF.

Coronary angiography in patients with acute heart failure: from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: Little is known about the characteristics and outcomes of patients who undergo coronary angiography during heart failure (HF) hospitalization, as well as those with coronary stenosis, and those who underwent coronary revascularization. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed 2163 patients who were hospitalized for HF without acute coronary syndrome or prior HF hospitalization. We compared patient characteristics and 1 year clinical outcomes according to (i) patients with versus without coronary angiography, (ii) patients with versus without coronary stenosis, and (iii) patients with versus without coronary revascularization. The primary outcome measure was the composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. Coronary angiography was performed in 37.0% of patients. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, factors independently associated with coronary angiography were age < 80 years [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.41-2.20, P < 0.001], men (adjusted OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.03-1.59, P = 0.02), diabetes (adjusted OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.02-1.60, P = 0.04), no atrial fibrillation or flutter (adjusted OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.17-1.82, P < 0.001), no prior device implantation (adjusted OR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.13-2.91, P = 0.01), current smoking (adjusted OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.05-1.87, P = 0.02), no cognitive dysfunction (adjusted OR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.34-2.69, P < 0.001), ambulatory status (adjusted OR = 2.89, 95% CI = 2.03-4.10, P < 0.001), HF with reduced ejection fraction (adjusted OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.24-1.93, P < 0.001), estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥ 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted OR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.45-2.58, P < 0.001), no anaemia (adjusted OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.02-1.59, P = 0.04), and no prescription of ß-blockers prior to admission (adjusted OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.03-1.68, P = 0.03). Patients who underwent coronary angiography had a lower risk of the primary outcome [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.58-0.85, P < 0.001]. Among the patients who underwent coronary angiography, those with coronary stenosis (38.9%) did not have lower risk of the primary outcome measure than those without coronary stenosis (adjusted HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.65-1.32, P = 0.68). Among the patients with coronary stenosis, those with coronary revascularization (54.3%) did not have higher risk of the primary outcome measure than those without coronary revascularization (adjusted HR = 1.36, 95% CI = 0.84-2.21, P = 0.22). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with acute HF, patients who underwent coronary angiography had a lower risk of clinical outcomes and were significantly different from those who did not undergo coronary angiography.

Newly Diagnosed Infection After Admission for Acute Heart Failure: From the KCHF Registry.

Background No studies have explored the association between newly diagnosed infections after admission and clinical outcomes in patients with acute heart failure. We aimed to explore the factors associated with newly diagnosed infection after admission for acute heart failure, and its association with in-hospital and post-discharge clinical outcomes. Methods and Results Among 4056 patients enrolled in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, 2399 patients without any obvious infectious disease upon admission were analyzed. The major in-hospital and post-discharge outcome measures were all-cause deaths. There were 215 patients (9.0%) with newly diagnosed infections during hospitalization, and 2184 patients (91.0%) without infection during hospitalization. The factors independently associated with a newly diagnosed infection were age ≥80 years, acute coronary syndrome, non-ambulatory status, hyponatremia, anemia, intubation, and patients who were not on loop diuretics as outpatients. The newly diagnosed infection group was associated with a higher incidence of in-hospital mortality (16.3% and 3.2%, P<0.001) and excess adjusted risk of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 6.07 [95% CI, 3.61-10.19], P<0.001) compared with the non-infection group. The newly diagnosed infection group was also associated with a higher 1-year incidence of post-discharge mortality (19.3% in the newly diagnosed infection group and 13.6% in the non-infection group, P<0.001) and excess adjusted risk of post-discharge mortality (hazard ratio, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.08-2.07], P=0.02) compared with the non-infection group. Conclusions Elderly patients with multiple comorbidities were associated with the development of newly diagnosed infections after admission for acute heart failure. Newly diagnosed infections after admission were associated with higher in-hospital and post-discharge mortality in patients with acute heart failure. Registration URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02334891.

Improved and new-onset anemia during follow-up in patients with acute decompensated heart failure: Characteristics and outcomes.

ABSTRACT: There was no previous report on the prognostic impact of new-onset or improved anemia after discharge from acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).We analyzed 771 patients with ADHF and who were followed in multicenters in Japan was divided into 4 groups based on the hemoglobin values at discharge and 6-month index visit: 373 patients (48.4%) with persistent anemia, 87 patients (11.3%) with new-onset anemia, 91 patients (11.8%) with improved anemia, and 220 patients (28.5%) without anemia.The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization after index visit. The cumulative 6-month incidences of the primary outcome measure were 25.2% for persistent anemia, 18.5% for new onset anemia, 9.0% for improved anemia, and 9.2% for no anemia (log-rank P < .001). Compared with the no anemia group, the excess risk for the primary outcome measure remained significant in the persistent anemia group [hazard ratio (HR) 2.70, 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.45-5.44, P = .001] and in the new-onset anemia group (HR 2.73, 95% CI 1.19-6.25, P = .02), while it was not significant in the improved anemia group (HR 1.69, 95% CI 0.68-4.03, P = .25).Persistent and new-onset anemia at 6-month visit were associated with a subsequent higher risk for all-cause death or HF hospitalization in patients with ADHF, suggesting the importance of detecting anemia during follow-up.

A decrease in tricuspid regurgitation pressure gradient associates with favorable outcome in patients with heart failure.

AIMS: Although the prognostic impact of the high tricuspid regurgitation pressure gradient (TRPG) has been investigated, the association of the decrease in TRPG during follow-up with clinical outcomes in heart failure (HF) has not been previously studied. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of a decrease in TRPG between hospitalization and 6 month visit with subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with acute decompensated HF (ADHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 721 patients with available TRPG data both during hospitalization and a subsequent 6 month visit, the study population was divided into two groups: a decrease in TRPG group (>10 mmHg decrease at 6 month visit) (N = 179) and no decrease in TRPG group (N = 542). The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. The cumulative 6 month incidence of primary outcome measure was significantly lower in the decrease in TRPG group than in the no decrease in TRPG group (12.2% vs. 18.7%, P = 0.02). After adjusting for confounders, there was a significantly lower risk in decrease in TRPG group than in the no decrease in TRPG group for the measured primary outcome (hazard ratio: 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.32-0.93, P = 0.02). The lower risk in decrease in TRPG group was not different among the basal TRPG values. CONCLUSIONS: Heart failure patients with a decrease in TRPG at 6 months after discharge from ADHF hospitalization had lower subsequent risk of all-cause death and HF hospitalization than those without a decrease in TRPG, regardless of TRPG values.

Prognostic value of reduction in left atrial size during a follow-up of heart failure: an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: The association between sequential changes in left atrial diameter (LAD) and prognosis in heart failure (HF) remains to be elucidated. The present study aimed to investigate the link between reduction in LAD and clinical outcomes in patients with HF. DESIGN: A multicentre prospective cohort study. SETTING: This study was nested from the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry including consecutive patients admitted for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in 19 hospitals throughout Japan. PARTICIPANTS: The current study population included 673 patients with HF who underwent both baseline and 6-month follow-up echocardiography with available paired LAD data. We divided them into two groups: the reduction in the LAD group (change <0 mm) (n=398) and the no-reduction in the LAD group (change ≥0 mm) (n=275). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause death or hospitalisation for HF during 180 days after 6-month follow-up echocardiography. The secondary outcome measures were defined as the individual components of the primary composite outcome measure and a composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalisation for HF. RESULTS: The cumulative 180-day incidence of the primary outcome measure was significantly lower in the reduction in the LAD group than in the no-reduction in the LAD group (13.3% vs 22.2%, p=0.002). Even after adjusting 15 confounders, the lower risk of reduction in LAD relative to no-reduction in LAD for the primary outcome measure remained significant (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.97 p=0.04). CONCLUSION: Patients with reduction in LAD during follow-up after ADHF hospitalisation had a lower risk for a composite endpoint of all-cause death or HF hospitalisation, suggesting that the change of LAD might be a simple and useful echocardiographic marker during follow-up.