Characterizing medical patients with delirium: A cohort study comparing ICD-10 codes and a validated chart review method.

BACKGROUND: Delirium is a major cause of preventable mortality and morbidity in hospitalized adults, but accurately determining rates of delirium remains a challenge. OBJECTIVE: To characterize and compare medical inpatients identified as having delirium using two common methods, administrative data and retrospective chart review. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of 3881 randomly selected internal medicine hospital admissions from six acute care hospitals in Toronto and Mississauga, Ontario, Canada. Delirium status was determined using ICD-10-CA codes from hospital administrative data and through a previously validated chart review method. Baseline sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, processes of care and outcomes were compared across those without delirium in hospital and those with delirium as determined by administrative data and chart review. RESULTS: Delirium was identified in 6.3% of admissions by ICD-10-CA codes compared to 25.7% by chart review. Using chart review as the reference standard, ICD-10-CA codes for delirium had sensitivity 24.1% (95%CI: 21.5-26.8%), specificity 99.8% (95%CI: 99.5-99.9%), positive predictive value 97.6% (95%CI: 94.6-98.9%), and negative predictive value 79.2% (95%CI: 78.6-79.7%). Age over 80, male gender, and Charlson comorbidity index greater than 2 were associated with misclassification of delirium. Inpatient mortality and median costs of care were greater in patients determined to have delirium by ICD-10-CA codes (5.8% greater mortality, 95% CI: 2.0-9.5 and $6824 greater cost, 95%CI: 4713-9264) and by chart review (11.9% greater mortality, 95%CI: 9.5-14.2% and $4967 greater cost, 95%CI: 4415-5701), compared to patients without delirium. CONCLUSIONS: Administrative data are specific but highly insensitive, missing most cases of delirium in hospital. Mortality and costs of care were greater for both the delirium cases that were detected and missed by administrative data. Better methods of routinely measuring delirium in hospital are needed.

Advanced imaging use and delays among inpatients with psychiatric comorbidity.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether presence of a psychiatric comorbidity impacts use of inpatient imaging tests and subsequent wait times. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of all patients admitted to General Internal Medicine (GIM) at five academic hospitals in Toronto, Ontario from 2010 to 2019. Exposure was presence of a coded psychiatric comorbidity on admission. Primary outcome was time to test, as calculated from the time of test ordering to time of test completion, for computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), ultrasound, or peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) insertion. Multilevel mixed-effects models were used to identify predictors of time to test, and marginal effects were used to calculate differences in absolute units (h). Secondary outcome was the rate of each type of test included. Subgroup analyses were performed according to type of psychiatric comorbidity: psychotic, mood/anxiety, or substance use disorder. RESULTS: There were 196,819 GIM admissions from 2010to 2019. In 77,562 admissions, ≥1 advanced imaging test was performed. After adjusting for all covariates, presence of any psychiatric comorbidity was associated with increased time to test for MRI (adjusted difference: 5.3 h, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.9-6.8), PICC (adjusted difference: 3.7 h, 95% CI: 1.6-5.8), and ultrasound (adjusted difference: 3.0 h, 95% CI: 2.3-3.8), but not for CT (adjusted difference: 0.1 h, 95% CI: -0.3 to 0.5). Presence of any psychiatric comorbidity was associated with lower rate of ordering for all test types (adjusted difference: -17.2 tests per 100 days hospitalization, interquartile range: -18.0 to -16.3). CONCLUSIONS: There was a lower rate of ordering of advanced imaging among patients with psychiatric comorbidity. Once ordered, time to test completion was longer for MRI, ultrasound, and PICC. Further exploration, such as quantifying rates of cancelled tests and qualitative studies evaluating hospital, provider, and patient barriers to timely advanced imaging, will be helpful in elucidating causes for these disparities.

Temporal Clustering of Critical Illness Events on Medical Wards.

Importance: Recognizing and preventing patient deterioration is important for hospital safety. Objective: To investigate whether critical illness events (in-hospital death or intensive care unit [ICU] transfer) are associated with greater risk of subsequent critical illness events for other patients on the same medical ward. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study in 5 hospitals in Toronto, Canada, including 118 529 hospitalizations. Patients were admitted to general internal medicine wards between April 1, 2010, and October 31, 2017. Data were analyzed between January 1, 2020, and April 10, 2023. Exposures: Critical illness events (in-hospital death or ICU transfer). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the composite of in-hospital death or ICU transfer. The association between critical illness events on the same ward across 6-hour intervals was studied using discrete-time survival analysis, adjusting for patient and situational factors. The association between critical illness events on different comparable wards in the same hospital was measured as a negative control. Results: The cohort included 118 529 hospitalizations (median age, 72 years [IQR, 56-83 years]; 50.7% male). Death or ICU transfer occurred in 8785 hospitalizations (7.4%). Patients were more likely to experience the primary outcome after exposure to 1 prior event (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.30-1.48) and more than 1 prior event (AOR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.33-1.68) in the prior 6-hour interval compared with no exposure. The exposure was associated with increased odds of subsequent ICU transfer (1 event: AOR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.54-1.81; >1 event: AOR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.79-2.36) but not death alone (1 event: AOR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.97-1.19; >1 event: AOR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.71-1.09). There was no significant association between critical illness events on different wards within the same hospital. Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this cohort study suggest that patients are more likely to be transferred to the ICU in the hours after another patient's critical illness event on the same ward. This phenomenon could have several explanations, including increased recognition of critical illness and preemptive ICU transfers, resource diversion to the first event, or fluctuations in ward or ICU capacity. Patient safety may be improved by better understanding the clustering of ICU transfers on medical wards.

Using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score to assess mortality risk in older medical patients admitted to the intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic information at the time of hospital discharge can help guide goals-of-care discussions for future care. We sought to assess the association between the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS), which may highlight patients' risk of adverse outcomes at the time of hospital discharge, and in-hospital death among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) within 12 months of a previous hospital discharge. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study that included patients aged 75 years or older admitted at least twice over a 12-month period to the general medicine service at 7 academic centres and large community-based teaching hospitals in Toronto and Mississauga, Ontario, Canada, from Apr. 1, 2010, to Dec. 31, 2019. The HFRS (categorized as low, moderate or high frailty risk) was calculated at the time of discharge from the first hospital admission. Outcomes included ICU admission and death during the second hospital admission. RESULTS: The cohort included 22 178 patients, of whom 1767 (8.0%) were categorized as having high frailty risk, 9464 (42.7%) as having moderate frailty risk, and 10 947 (49.4%) as having low frailty risk. One hundred patients (5.7%) with high frailty risk were admitted to the ICU, compared to 566 (6.0%) of those with moderate risk and 790 (7.2%) of those with low risk. After adjustment for age, sex, hospital, day of admission, time of admission and Laboratory-based Acute Physiology Score, the odds of ICU admission were not significantly different for patients with high (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78 to 1.23) or moderate (adjusted OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.09) frailty risk compared to those with low frailty risk. Among patients admitted to the ICU, 75 (75.0%) of those with high frailty risk died, compared to 317 (56.0%) of those with moderate risk and 416 (52.7%) of those with low risk. After multivariable adjustment, the risk of death after ICU admission was higher for patients with high frailty risk than for those with low frailty risk (adjusted OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.77 to 4.77). INTERPRETATION: Among patients readmitted to hospital within 12 months, patients with high frailty risk were similarly likely as those with lower frailty risk to be admitted to the ICU but were more likely to die if admitted to ICU. The HFRS at hospital discharge can inform prognosis, which can help guide discussions for preferences for ICU care during future hospital stays.

Imaging delays among medical inpatients in Toronto, Ontario: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Imaging procedures are commonly performed on hospitalized patients and waiting for these could increase length-of-stay. The study objective was to quantify delays for imaging procedures in General Internal Medicine and identify contributing patient, physician, and system factors. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of medical inpatients admitted to 5 hospitals in Toronto, Ontario (2010-2019), with at least one imaging procedure (CT, MRI, ultrasound, or peripherally-inserted central catheter [PICC] insertion). The primary outcome was time-to-test, and the secondary outcome was acute length-of-stay after test ordering. RESULTS: The study cohort included 73,107 hospitalizations. Time-to-test was longest for MRI (median 22 hours) and shortest for CT (median 7 hours). The greatest contributors to time-to-test were system factors such as hospital site (up to 22 additional hours), location of test ordering (up to 10 additional hours), the timing of test ordering relative to admission (up to 13 additional hours), and ordering during weekends (up to 21 additional hours). Older patient age, having more comorbidities, and residence in a low-income neighborhood were also associated with testing delays. Each additional hour spent waiting for a test was associated with increased acute length-of-stay after test ordering, ranging from 0.4 additional hours for CT to 1.2 hours for MRI. CONCLUSIONS: The greatest contributors to testing delays relate to when and where a test was ordered. Wait times affect length-of-stay and the quality of patient care. Hospitals can apply our novel approach to explore opportunities to decrease testing delays locally.

Osmotic Demyelination Syndrome in Patients Hospitalized with Hyponatremia.

BACKGROUND: Osmotic demyelination syndrome (ODS) is a rare but potentially devastating neurologic complication of hyponatremia. The primary objective of this study was to identify the proportion of patients who developed ODS in a large, contemporary, multicenter cohort of patients admitted to the hospital with hyponatremia. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter cohort study of patients admitted with hyponatremia at five academic hospitals in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, between April 1, 2010, and December 31, 2020. All adult patients presenting with hyponatremia (serum sodium level 8 mmol/l in any 24-hour period). RESULTS: Our cohort included 22,858 hospitalizations with hyponatremia. Approximately 50% were women, the average age was 68 years, and mean initial serum sodium was 125 mmol/l (standard deviation, 4.6), including 11.9% with serum sodium from 110 to 119 mmol/l and 1.2% with serum sodium less than 110 mmol/l. Overall, rapid correction of serum sodium occurred in 3632 (17.7%) admissions. Twelve patients developed ODS (0.05%). Seven (58%) patients who developed ODS did not have rapid correction of serum sodium. CONCLUSIONS: In this large multicenter study of patients with hyponatremia, rapid correction of serum sodium was common (n=3632 [17.7%]), but ODS was rare (n=12 [0.05%]). Future studies with a higher number of patients with ODS are needed to better understand potential causal factors for ODS.

Developing and validating natural language processing algorithms for radiology reports compared to ICD-10 codes for identifying venous thromboembolism in hospitalized medical patients.

BACKGROUND: Identifying venous thromboembolism (VTE) from large clinical and administrative databases is important for research and quality improvement. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate natural language processing (NLP) algorithms to identify VTE from radiology reports among general internal medicine (GIM) inpatients. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included GIM hospitalizations between April 1, 2010 and March 31, 2017 at 5 hospitals in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. We developed NLP algorithms to identify pulmonary embolism (PE) and deep venous thrombosis (DVT) from radiologist reports of thoracic computed tomography (CT), extremity compression ultrasound (US), and nuclear ventilation-perfusion (VQ) scans in a training dataset of 1551 hospitalizations. We compared the accuracy of our NLP algorithms, the previously-published "simpleNLP" tool, and administrative discharge diagnosis codes (ICD-10-CA) for PE and DVT to the "gold standard" manual review in a separate random sample of 4000 GIM hospitalizations. RESULTS: Our NLP algorithms were highly accurate for identifying DVT from US, with sensitivity 0.94, positive predictive value (PPV) 0.90, and Area Under the Receiver-Operating-Characteristic Curve (AUC) 0.96; and in identifying PE from CT, with sensitivity 0.91, PPV 0.89, and AUC 0.96. Administrative diagnosis codes and the simple NLP tool were less accurate for DVT (ICD-10-CA sensitivity 0.63, PPV 0.43, AUC 0.81; simpleNLP sensitivity 0.41, PPV 0.36, AUC 0.66) and PE (ICD-10-CA sensitivity 0.83, PPV 0.70, AUC 0.91; simpleNLP sensitivity 0.89, PPV 0.62, AUC 0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Administrative diagnosis codes are unreliable in identifying VTE in hospitalized patients. We developed highly accurate NLP algorithms to identify VTE from radiology reports in a multicentre sample and have made the algorithms freely available to the academic community with a user-friendly tool (https://lks-chart.github.io/CHARTextract-docs/08-downloads/rulesets.html#venous-thromboembolism-vte-rulesets).

Internal medicine hospitalisations and liver disease: a comparative disease burden analysis of a multicentre cohort.

BACKGROUND: Liver disease is an increasing burden on population health globally. AIMS: To characterise burden of liver disease among general internal medicine inpatients at seven Toronto-area hospitals and compare it to other common medical conditions. METHODS: Data from April 2010 to October 2017 were obtained from hospitals participating in the GEMINI collaborative. Using these cohort data from hospital information systems linked to administrative data, we defined liver disease admissions using most responsible discharge diagnoses categorised according to international classification of diseases, 10th Revision-enhanced Canadian version (ICD-10-CA). We identified admissions for heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and pneumonia as comparators. We calculated standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) as the ratio of observed to expected deaths. RESULTS: Among 239 018 discharges, liver disease accounted for 1.7% of most responsible discharge diagnoses. Liver disease was associated with marked premature mortality, with SMR of 8.84 (95% CI 8.06-9.67) compared to 1.06 (95% CI 0.99-1.12) for heart failure, 1.05 (95% CI 0.96-1.15) for COPD and 1.28 (95% CI 1.20-1.37) for pneumonia. The majority of deaths were among patients younger than 65 years (57.7%) compared to 3.3% in heart failure, 5.6% in COPD and 10.7% in pneumonia. Liver disease patients presented with worse Laboratory-Based Acute Physiology Scores, were more frequently admitted to the intensive care unit (14.4%), incurred higher average total costs (median $6723 CAD), had higher in-hospital mortality (11.4%), and were more likely to be a readmission from 30 days prior (19.8%). Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease admissions increased from 120 in 2011-2012 to 215 in 2016-2017 (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: In Canada's largest urban centre, liver disease admissions resulted in premature morbidity and mortality with higher resource use compared to common cardio-respiratory conditions. Re-evaluation of approaches to caring for inpatients with liver disease is timely and justified.

Morning Discharges and Patient Length of Stay in Inpatient General Internal Medicine.

BACKGROUND: Many initiatives seek to increase the number of morning hospital discharges to improve patient flow, but little evidence supports this practice. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between the number of morning discharges and emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS) and hospital LOS in general internal medicine (GIM). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Multicenter retrospective cohort study involving all GIM patients discharged between April 1, 2010, and October 31, 2017, at seven hospitals in Ontario, Canada. MAIN MEASURES: The primary outcomes were ED LOS and hospital LOS, and secondary outcomes were 30-day readmission and in-hospital mortality. The number of morning GIM discharges (defined as the number of patients discharged alive between 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM) on the day of each hospital admission was the primary exposure. Multivariable regression models were fit to control for patient characteristics and situational factors, including GIM census. RESULTS: The sample included 189,781 patient admissions. In total, 36,043 (19.0%) discharges occurred between 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM. The average daily number of morning discharges and total discharges per hospital was 1.7 (SD, 1.4) and 8.4 (SD, 4.6), respectively. The median ED LOS was 14.5 hours (interquartile range [IQR], 10.0- 23.1), and the median hospital LOS was 4.6 days (IQR, 2.4-9.0). After multivariable adjustment, there was not a significant association between morning discharge and hospital LOS (adjusted rate ratio [aRR], 1.000; 95% CI, 0.996-1.000; P = .997), ED LOS (aRR, 0.999; 95% CI, 0.997-1.000; P = .307), 30-day readmission (aRR, 1.010; 95% CI, 0.991-1.020; P = .471), or in-hospital mortality (aRR, 0.967; 95% CI, 0.920-1.020; P = .183). The lack of association between morning discharge and LOS was generally consistent across all seven hospitals. At one hospital, morning discharge was associated with a 1.9% shorter ED LOS after multivariable adjustment (aRR, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.966-0.996; P = .013). CONCLUSIONS: The number of morning discharges was not significantly associated with shorter ED LOS or hospital LOS in GIM. Our findings suggest that increasing the number of morning discharges alone is unlikely to substantially improve patient throughput in GIM, but further research is needed to determine the effectiveness of specific interventions.

Reliability of Patient-Report, Physician-Report, and Medical Record Review to Identify Hospital-Acquired Complications: A Prospective Cohort Study.

This prospective study of internal medicine inpatients treated at 2 hospitals in Toronto, Canada, between September 1, 2016, and September 1, 2017, compared patient-report, physician-report, and detailed medical record review to identify specific hospital-acquired complications. Six complications were assessed: delirium, catheter-associated urinary tract infection, acute kidney injury, deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism, hospital-acquired pneumonia, or fall. The study included 207 patients and physician responses were obtained for 156 (75%). Complications were identified in 28 (14%) patients by medical record review, 30 (14%) patients by patient-report, and 11 (7%) patients by physician-report. Fifty-four (26%) patients experienced a complication as identified through at least one of the 3 methods. There was little agreement between the 3 methods (Fleiss' ĸ 0.15, P < 0.001). All 3 sources agreed on the occurrence of a specific complication in only 1 patient (1%). Multiple approaches likely are needed to adequately measure hospital-acquired complications.

Prediction of personal protective equipment use in hospitals during COVID-19.

Demand for Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) such as surgical masks, gloves, and gowns has increased significantly since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In hospital settings, both medical staff and patients are required to wear PPE. As these facilities resume regular operations, staff will be required to wear PPE at all times while additional PPE will be mandated during medical procedures. This will put increased pressure on hospitals which have had problems predicting PPE usage and sourcing its supply. To meet this challenge, we propose an approach to predict demand for PPE. Specifically, we model the admission of patients to a medical department using multiple independent [Formula: see text] queues. Each queue represents a class of patients with similar treatment plans and hospital length-of-stay. By estimating the total workload of each class, we derive closed-form estimates for the expected amount of PPE required over a specified time horizon using current PPE guidelines. We apply our approach to a data set of 22,039 patients admitted to the general internal medicine department at St. Michael's hospital in Toronto, Canada from April 2010 to November 2019. We find that gloves and surgical masks represent approximately 90% of predicted PPE usage. We also find that while demand for gloves is driven entirely by patient-practitioner interactions, 86% of the predicted demand for surgical masks can be attributed to the requirement that medical practitioners will need to wear them when not interacting with patients.

Variations in Processes of Care and Outcomes for Hospitalized General Medicine Patients Treated by Female vs Male Physicians.

Importance: Hospitalized medical patients cared for by female physicians may have decreased mortality rates compared with patients of male physicians. However, this association has yet to be assessed outside of the US, and little is known about factors that may explain this difference. Objective: To determine whether mortality, other hospital outcomes, and processes of care differed between the patients cared for by female and male physicians. Design Setting and Participants: This retrospective cross-sectional study included patients admitted to general medical wards at 7 hospitals in Ontario, Canada, between April 1, 2010, and October 31, 2017. The association of physician gender with patient outcomes was examined while adjusting for hospital fixed effects, patient characteristics, physician characteristics, and processes of care. All patients were admitted to a general internal medicine service through the emergency department and were cared for by a general internist or family physician-hospitalist. Patients were excluded if length of stay was greater than 30 days or if the attending physician cared for less than 100 hospitalized general medicine patients over the study period. Statistical analyses were performed from October 15, 2020, to May 8, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: In-hospital mortality, length of stay, intensive care unit admission, 30-day readmissions, and process-of-care measures (blood tests, medications, imaging, endoscopy, and interventional radiology services). Results: A total of 171 625 hospitalized patients with a median age of 73 years (interquartile range, 56-84 years) were included (84 221 men [49.1%], 87 402 women [50.9%], and 2 patients with unspecified sex). Patients were cared for by 172 attending physicians (54 female physicians [31.4%] and 118 male physicians [68.6%]). In fully adjusted models, female physicians ordered more imaging tests, including computed tomography (adjusted difference, -1.70%; 95% CI, -2.78% to -0.61%; P = .002), magnetic resonance imaging (-0.88%; 95% CI, -1.37% to -0.38%; P = .001), and ultrasonography (-1.90%; 95% CI, -3.21% to -0.59%; P = .005). Patients treated by female physicians had lower in-hospital mortality (2256 of 46 772 patients [4.8%] vs 6452 of 124 853 patients [5.2%]). This difference persisted after adjustment for patient characteristics but was no longer statistically different after adjustment for other physician characteristics (adjusted difference, 0.29%; 95% CI, -0.08% to 0.65%; P = .12). The difference was similar after further adjustment for processes of care. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of patients admitted to general medical units in Canada, patients cared for by female physicians had lower mortality rates than those treated by male physicians, adjusting for patient characteristics. This finding was nonsignificant after adjustment for other physician characteristics.

Air Pollution as a Risk Factor for Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma. A 15-Year Population-based Cohort Study.

Rationale: Current evidence on the relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and new onset of chronic lung disease is inconclusive.Objectives: To examine associations of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and adult-onset asthma with past exposure to fine particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and the redox-weighted average of NO2 and O3 (Ox) and characterize the concentration-response relationship.Methods: We conducted a population-based cohort study of all Ontarians, aged 35-85 years, from 2001 to 2015. A 3-year moving average of residential exposures to selected pollutants with a 1-year lag were estimated during follow-up. We used Cox proportional hazard models and Aalen additive-hazard models to quantify the pollution-disease associations and characterized the shape of these relationships using newly developed nonlinear risk models.Measurements and Main Results: Among 5.1 million adults, we identified 340,733 and 218,005 incident cases of COPD and asthma, respectively. We found positive associations of COPD with PM2.5 per interquartile-range (IQR) increase of 3.4 µg/m3 (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.08), NO2 per IQR increase of 13.9 ppb (1.04; 1.02-1.05), O3 per IQR increase of 6.3 ppb (1.04; 1.03-1.04), and Ox per IQR increase of 4.4 ppb (1.03; 1.03-1.03). By contrast, we did not find strong evidence linking these pollutants to adult-onset asthma. In addition, we quantified that each IQR increase in pollution exposure yielded 3.0 (2.4-3.6), 3.2 (2.0-4.3), 1.9 (1.3-2.5), and 2.3 (1.7-2.9) excess cases of COPD per 100,000 adults for PM2.5, NO2, O3, and Ox, respectively. Furthermore, most pollutant-COPD relationships exhibited supralinear shapes.Conclusions: Air pollution was associated with a higher incidence of COPD but was not associated with a higher incidence of adult-onset asthma.

Modelling resource requirements and physician staffing to provide virtual urgent medical care for residents of long-term care homes: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak increases the importance of strategies to enhance urgent medical care delivery in long-term care (LTC) facilities that could potentially reduce transfers to emergency departments. The study objective was to model resource requirements to deliver virtual urgent medical care in LTC facilities. METHODS: We used data from all general medicine inpatient admissions at 7 hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area, Ontario, Canada, over a 7.5-year period (Apr. 1, 2010, to Oct. 31, 2017) to estimate historical patterns of hospital resource use by LTC residents. We estimated an upper bound of potentially avoidable transfers by combining data on short admissions (≤ 72 h) with historical data on the proportion of transfers from LTC facilities for which patients were discharged from the emergency department without admission. Regression models were used to extrapolate future resource requirements, and queuing models were used to estimate physician staffing requirements to perform virtual assessments. RESULTS: There were 235 375 admissions to general medicine wards, and residents of LTC facilities (age 16 yr or older) accounted for 9.3% (n = 21 948) of these admissions. Among the admissions of residents of LTC facilities, short admissions constituted 24.1% (n = 5297), and for 99.8% (n = 5284) of these admissions, the patient received laboratory testing, for 86.9% (n = 4604) the patient received plain radiography, for 41.5% (n = 2197) the patient received computed tomography and for 81.2% (n = 4300) the patient received intravenous medications. If all patients who have short admissions and are transferred from the emergency department were diverted to outpatient care, the average weekly demand for outpatient imaging per hospital would be 2.6 ultrasounds, 11.9 computed tomographic scans and 23.9 radiographs per week. The average daily volume of urgent medical virtual assessments would range from 2.0 to 5.8 per hospital. A single centralized virtual assessment centre staffed by 2 or 3 physicians would provide services similar in efficiency (measured by waiting time for physician assessment) to 7 separate centres staffed by 1 physician each. INTERPRETATION: The provision of acute medical care to LTC residents at their facility would probably require rapid access to outpatient diagnostic imaging, within-facility access to laboratory services and intravenous medication and virtual consultations with physicians. The results of this study can inform efforts to deliver urgent medical care in LTC facilities in light of a potential surge in COVID-19 cases.

Exposure to Road Traffic Noise and Incidence of Acute Myocardial Infarction and Congestive Heart Failure: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Toronto, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence for the association between traffic-related noise and the incidence of major cardiovascular events such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and congestive heart failure (CHF) is inconclusive, especially in North America. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the associations between long-term exposure to road traffic noise and the incidence of AMI and CHF. METHODS: Our study population comprised ∼1 million people 30-100 years of age who lived in Toronto, Canada, from 2001 to 2015 and were free of AMI (referred to as the AMI cohort) or CHF (the CHF cohort) at baseline. Outcomes were ascertained from health administrative databases using validated algorithms. Annual average noise levels were estimated as the A-weighted equivalent sound pressure level over the 24-h period (LAeq24) and during nighttime (LAeqNight), respectively, using propagation modeling, and assigned to participants' annual six-digit postal code addresses during follow-up. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident AMI and CHF in relation to LAeq24 and LAeqNight using random-effects Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for individual- and census tract-level covariates, including traffic-related air pollutants [e.g., ultrafine particles (UFPs) and nitrogen dioxide]. RESULTS: During follow-up, there were 37,441 AMI incident cases and 95,138 CHF incident cases. Each interquartile range change in LAeq24 was associated with an increased risk of incident AMI (HR=1.07; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.08) and CHF (HR=1.07; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.09). Similarly, LAeqNight was associated with incident AMI (HR=1.07; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.08) and CHF (HR=1.06; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.07). These results were robust to various sensitivity analyses and remained elevated after controlling for long-term exposure to UFPs and nitrogen dioxide. We found near-linear relationships between noise and the incidence of AMI and CHF with no evidence of threshold values. CONCLUSION: In this large cohort study in Toronto, Canada, chronic exposure to road traffic noise was associated with elevated risks for AMI and CHF incidence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5809.

Association Between Road Traffic Noise and Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension in Toronto, Canada: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background Exposure to road traffic noise has been linked to cardiometabolic complications, such as elevated blood pressure and glucose dysregulation. However, epidemiologic evidence linking road traffic noise to diabetes mellitus and hypertension remains scarce. We examined associations between road traffic noise and the incidence of diabetes mellitus and hypertension in Toronto, Canada. Methods and Results Using the Ontario Population Health and Environment Cohort, we conducted a retrospective, population-based cohort study of long-term residents of Toronto, aged 35 to 100 years, who were registered for provincial publicly funded health insurance, and were without a history of hypertension (n=701 174) or diabetes mellitus (n=914 607). Road traffic noise exposure levels were assessed by the equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure level (dBA) for the 24-hour day and the equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure level for the night (11 pm-7am). Noise exposures were assigned to subjects according to their annual residential postal codes during the 15-year follow-up. We used random-effect Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for personal and area-level characteristics. From 2001 to 2015, each interquartile range increase in the equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure level (dBA) for the 24-hour day (10.0 dBA) was associated with an 8% increase in incident diabetes mellitus (95% CI, 1.07-1.09) and a 2% increase in hypertension (95% CI, 1.01-1.03). We obtained similar estimates with the equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure level for the night (11 pm-7am). These results were robust to all sensitivity analyses conducted, including further adjusting for traffic-related air pollutants (ultrafine particles and nitrogen dioxide). For both hypertension and diabetes mellitus, we observed stronger associations with the equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure level (dBA) for the 24-hour day among women and younger adults (aged <60 years). Conclusions Long-term exposure to road traffic noise was associated with an increased incidence of diabetes mellitus and hypertension in Toronto.

Exposure to ambient air pollution and the incidence of lung cancer and breast cancer in the Ontario Population Health and Environment Cohort.

Lung and female breast cancers are highly prevalent worldwide. Although the association between exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) and lung cancer has been recognized, there is less evidence for associations with other common air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) and ozone (O3 ). Even less is known about potential associations between these pollutants and breast cancer. We conducted a population-based cohort study to investigate the associations of chronic exposure to PM2.5 , NO2 , O3 and redox-weighted average of NO2 and O3 (Ox ) with incident lung and breast cancer, using the Ontario Population Health and Environment Cohort (ONPHEC), which includes all long-term residents aged 35-85 years who lived in Ontario, Canada, 2001-2015. Incident lung and breast cancers were ascertained using the Ontario Cancer Registry. Annual estimates of exposures were assigned to the residential postal codes of subjects for each year during follow-up. We used Cox proportional-hazards models adjusting for personal- and neighborhood-level covariates. Our cohorts for lung and breast cancer analyses included ~4.9 million individuals and ~2.5 million women, respectively. During follow-up, 100,146 incident cases of lung cancer and 91,146 incident cases of breast cancer were diagnosed. The fully adjusted analyses showed positive associations of lung cancer incidence with PM2.5 (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.02 [95% CI: 1.01-1.05] per 5.3 µg/m3 ) and NO2 (HR = 1.05 [95% CI: 1.03-1.07] per 14 ppb). No associations with lung cancer were observed for O3 or Ox . Relationships between PM2.5 and NO2 with lung cancer exhibited a sublinear shape. We did not find compelling evidence linking air pollution to breast cancer.