Evaluation and improvement of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) for COVID-19: a multi-hospital study.

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification. METHODS: Training cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King's College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy's and St Thomas' Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models. RESULTS: A baseline model of 'NEWS2 + age' had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites. CONCLUSIONS: NEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.

Impact of graft thickness on visual acuity after Descemet's stripping endothelial keratoplasty.

Objective To evaluate the relationship, over time, between central graft thickness and visual acuity following Descemet's stripping endothelial keratoplasty (DSEK). Methods A retrospective analysis of 70 consecutive cases of DSEK. All donor lenticules were dissected manually. Serial postoperative measurements of central graft and total corneal thicknesses were made using anterior segment optical coherence tomography. Visual acuity, refraction and patient demographics were collected from case notes. The correlation between central graft thickness and visual acuity at serial time points was calculated. Results The median age at surgery was 75 years (lower quartile (LQ) 66, upper quartile (UQ) 83, range 36-90 years). Nineteen eyes were excluded from statistical analysis, leaving 51 eyes of 46 patients remaining. Last follow-up occurred a median of 12 months postoperatively (LQ 6, UQ 23, range 4-38 months). The median preoperative visual acuity was 0.71 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR), improving to 0.34 logMAR postoperatively (p<0.001, n=43). Median graft thickness decreased from 209 µm at day 1 to 142 µm at last follow-up (p<0.001). No statistically significant correlation was found between central total corneal thickness and visual acuity at any time point. Except for a single time point, no statistically significant correlation was found between central graft thickness and visual acuity. Conclusion There is no clear association between central graft, or total corneal, thickness and visual acuity following DSEK.