Identifying the climatic drivers of honey bee disease in England and Wales.

Honey bee colony health has received considerable attention in recent years, with many studies highlighting multifactorial issues contributing to colony losses. Disease and weather are consistently highlighted as primary drivers of colony loss, yet little is understood about how they interact. Here, we combined disease records from government honey bee health inspections with meteorological data from the CEDA to identify how weather impacts EFB, AFB, CBP, varroosis, chalkbrood and sacbrood. Using R-INLA, we determined how different meteorological variables influenced disease prevalence and disease risk. Temperature caused an increase in the risk of both varroosis and sacbrood, but overall, the weather had a varying effect on the six honey bee diseases. The risk of disease was also spatially varied and was impacted by the meteorological variables. These results are an important step in identifying the impacts of climate change on honey bees and honey bee diseases.

Effects of Primary Biliary Cholangitis on Quality of Life and Health Care Costs in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There have been few high-quality studies of the costs, preference-based health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and cost effectiveness of treatments for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). We aimed to estimate the marginal effects of PBC complications and symptoms, accounting for treatment, on HRQoL and the annual cost of health care in the United Kingdom (UK). These are essential components for evaluation of cost effectiveness and this information will aid in evaluation of new treatments. METHODS: Questionnaires were mailed to 4583 participants in the UK-PBC research cohort and data were collected on HRQoL and use of the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK from 2015 through 2016. HRQoL was measured using the EQ-5D-5L instrument. The annual cost of resource use was calculated using unit costs obtained from NHS sources. We performed econometric analyses to determine the effects of treatment, symptoms, complications, liver transplantation status, and patient characteristics on HRQoL and annual costs. RESULTS: In an analysis of data from 2240 participants (over 10% of all UK PBC patients), we found that PBC symptoms have a considerable effect on HRQoL. Ursodeoxycholic acid therapy was associated with significantly higher HRQoL regardless of response status. Having had a liver transplant and ascites were also independently associated with reduced HRQoL. Having had a liver transplant (US$4294) and esophageal varices (US$3401) were the factors with the two greatest mean annual costs to the NHS. Symptoms were not independently associated with cost but were associated with reduction in HRQoL for patients, indicating the lack of effective treatments for PBC symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from 2240 participants in the UK PBC, we found that HRQoL and cost estimates provide greater insight into the relative importance of PBC-related symptoms and complications. These findings provide estimates for health technology assessments of new treatments for PBC.

Chronic bee paralysis as a serious emerging threat to honey bees.

Chronic bee paralysis is a well-defined viral disease of honey bees with a global distribution that until recently caused rare but severe symptomatology including colony loss. Anecdotal evidence indicates a recent increase in virus incidence in several countries, but no mention of concomitant disease. We use government honey bee health inspection records from England and Wales to test whether chronic bee paralysis is an emerging infectious disease and investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of disease. The number of chronic bee paralysis cases increased exponentially between 2007 and 2017, demonstrating chronic bee paralysis as an emergent disease. Disease is highly clustered spatially within most years, suggesting local spread, but not between years, suggesting disease burnt out with periodic reintroduction. Apiary and county level risk factors are confirmed to include scale of beekeeping operation and the history of honey bee imports. Our findings offer epidemiological insight into this damaging emerging disease.

Transmission routes of rare seasonal diseases: the case of norovirus infections.

Norovirus (NoV) is the most commonly recognized cause of acute gastroenteritis, with over a million cases globally per year. While usually self-limiting, NoV poses a substantial economic burden because it is highly contagious and there are multiple transmission routes. Infection occurs through inhalation of vomitus; faecal-oral spread; and food, water and environmental contamination. While the incidence of the disease is predictably seasonal, much less is known about the relative contribution of the various exposure pathways in causing disease. Additionally, asymptomatic excretion and viral shedding make forecasting disease burden difficult. We develop a novel stochastic dynamic network model to investigate the contributions of different transmission pathways in multiple coupled social networks representing schools, hospitals, care-homes and family households in a community setting. We analyse how the networks impact on transmission. We used ward-level demographic data from Northumberland, UK to create a simulation cohort. We compared the results with extant data on NoV cases from the IID2 study. Connectivity across the simulated cohort was high. Cases of NoV showed marked seasonality, peaking in early winter and declining through the summer. For the first time, we show that fomites and food appear to be the most important exposure routes in determining the population burden of disease. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Staphylococcal resistance profiles in deep infection following primary hip and knee arthroplasty: a study using the NJR dataset.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to (1) report the rates of resistance against a variety of antibiotics for pure Staphylococcal infections, and (2) examine the impact of ALBC use at primary surgery has on resistance patterns for patients undergoing first-time revision of primary hip and knee arthroplasty for indication of infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the National Joint Registry database for England and Wales were linked to microbiology data held by Public Health England to identify a consecutive series of 258 primary hip and knee arthroplasties performed between April 2003 and January 2014 that went on to have a revision for Staphylococcal deep periprosthetic infection. Multivariate binary logistic regression was used to study predictors of microorganism resistance to a range of antimicrobials. RESULTS: After adjusting for patient and surgical factors, multivariate analysis showed the use of gentamicin-loaded bone cement at the primary surgery was associated with a significant increase in the risk of Staphylococcal gentamicin resistance (odds ratio 8.341, 95% CI 2.297-30.292, p = 0.001) and methicillin resistance (odds ratio 3.870, 95% CI 1.319-11.359, p = 0.014) at revision for infection. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians must anticipate the possibility of antibiotic resistance to ALBC utilised at primary surgery.

Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden.

BACKGROUND: With over 800 million cases globally, campylobacteriosis is a major cause of food borne disease. In temperate climates incidence is highly seasonal but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood, making human disease control difficult. We hypothesised that observed disease patterns reflect complex interactions between weather, patterns of human risk behaviour, immune status and level of food contamination. Only by understanding these can we find effective interventions. METHODS: We analysed trends in human Campylobacter cases in NE England from 2004 to 2009, investigating the associations between different risk factors and disease using time-series models. We then developed an individual-based (IB) model of risk behaviour, human immunological responses to infection and environmental contamination driven by weather and land use. We parameterised the IB model for NE England and compared outputs to observed numbers of reported cases each month in the population in 2004-2009. Finally, we used it to investigate different community level disease reduction strategies. RESULTS: Risk behaviours like countryside visits (t = 3.665, P < 0.001 and t = - 2.187, P = 0.029 for temperature and rainfall respectively), and consumption of barbecued food were strongly associated with weather, (t = 3.219, P = 0.002 and t = 2.015, P = 0.045 for weekly average temperature and average maximum temperature respectively) and also rain (t = 2.254, P = 0.02527). This suggests that the effect of weather was indirect, acting through changes in risk behaviour. The seasonal pattern of cases predicted by the IB model was significantly related to observed patterns (r = 0.72, P < 0.001) indicating that simulating risk behaviour could produce the observed seasonal patterns of cases. A vaccination strategy providing short-term immunity was more effective than educational interventions to modify human risk behaviour. Extending immunity to 1 year from 20 days reduced disease burden by an order of magnitude (from 2412-2414 to 203-309 cases per 50,000 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first interdisciplinary study to integrate environment, risk behaviour, socio-demographics and immunology to model Campylobacter infection, including pathways to mitigation. We conclude that vaccination is likely to be the best route for intervening against campylobacteriosis despite the technical problems associated with understanding both the underlying human immunology and genetic variation in the pathogen, and the likely cost of vaccine development.

Mechanisms Affecting the Gut of Preterm Infants in Enteral Feeding Trials.

Large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in preterm infants offer unique opportunities for mechanistic evaluation of the risk factors leading to serious diseases, as well as the actions of interventions designed to prevent them. Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) a serious inflammatory gut condition and late-onset sepsis (LOS) are common feeding and nutrition-related problems that may cause death or serious long-term morbidity and are key outcomes in two current UK National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR) trials. Speed of increasing milk feeds trial (SIFT) randomized preterm infants to different rates of increases in milk feeds with a primary outcome of survival without disability at 2 years corrected age. Enteral lactoferrin in neonates (ELFIN) randomizes infants to supplemental enteral lactoferrin or placebo with a primary outcome of LOS. This is a protocol for the mechanisms affecting the gut of preterm infants in enteral feeding trials (MAGPIE) study and is funded by the UK NIHR Efficacy and Mechanistic Evaluation programme. MAGPIE will recruit ~480 preterm infants who were enrolled in SIFT or ELFIN. Participation in MAGPIE does not change the main trial protocols and uses non-invasive sampling of stool and urine, along with any residual resected gut tissue if infants required surgery. Trial interventions may involve effects on gut microbes, metabolites (e.g., short-chain fatty acids), and aspects of host immune function. Current hypotheses suggest that NEC and/or LOS are due to a dysregulated immune system in the context of gut dysbiosis, but mechanisms have not been systematically studied within large RCTs. Microbiomic analysis will use next-generation sequencing, and metabolites will be assessed by mass spectrometry to detect volatile organic and other compounds produced by microbes or the host. We will explore differences between disease cases and controls, as well as exploring the actions of trial interventions. Impacts of this research are multiple: translation of knowledge of mechanisms promoting gut health may explain outcomes or suggest alternate strategies to improve health. Results may identify new non-invasive diagnostic or monitoring techniques, preventative or treatment strategies for NEC or LOS, or provide data useful for risk stratification in future studies. Mechanistic evaluation might be especially informative where there are not clear effects on the primary outcome (ISRCTN 12554594).

GP contact with patients after treatment for hip fracture: frequency and determinants.

BACKGROUND: Patients with hip fracture have complex medical issues, both at the time of admission and after discharge from hospital. We have observed a surge in patient-initiated and carer-initiated contacts with general physicians (GPs) for periods longer than those usually reported, in a series of patients sustaining fractures from July 2008 to September 2013. OBJECTIVES: To establish (1) the frequency of contact with GPs (primary outcome) and (2) the factors influencing the frequency of different modes of contact. METHODS: Ten GP practices in West Northumberland were asked to retrospectively identify patients sustaining hip fractures, and to provide data on the number of GP contacts (patient visits to GP, telephone consultations, GP visits to patient's home) up to 1 year before and 1 year after fracture. Generalised linear models (GLM) were constructed using number of postfracture GP contacts as response variable; age, gender, residential status, number of prefracture contacts and days to contact postfracture were covariates. RESULTS: Each patient recorded cumulative 8.4 GP contacts before and 10.79 contacts after fracture. There were significantly more telephone contacts with GPs and GP home visits, but significantly fewer patient visits to GP clinics. In the GLM analysis, patient age and number of prefracture GP contacts predicted all types of postfracture contacts, while gender was not. Patients discharged home visited their GPs five times more frequently than those discharged to institutional care. CONCLUSIONS: After hip fractures, telephone contacts and GP visits to patients' homes increase, but patient visits to GP clinics decrease, influenced by age and residential status.

Ablative therapy for people with localised prostate cancer: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: For people with localised prostate cancer, active treatments are effective but have significant side effects. Minimally invasive treatments that destroy (or ablate) either the entire gland or the part of the prostate with cancer may be as effective and cause less side effects at an acceptable cost. Such therapies include cryotherapy, high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) and brachytherapy, among others. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the relative clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative therapies compared with radical prostatectomy (RP), external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and active surveillance (AS) for primary treatment of localised prostate cancer, and compared with RP for salvage treatment of localised prostate cancer which has recurred after initial treatment with EBRT. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (1946 to March week 3, 2013), MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (29 March 2013), EMBASE (1974 to week 13, 2013), Bioscience Information Service (BIOSIS) (1956 to 1 April 2013), Science Citation Index (1970 to 1 April 2013), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (issue 3, 2013), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) (issue 3, 2013), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) (inception to March 2013) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) (inception to March 2013) databases were searched. Costs were obtained from NHS sources. REVIEW METHODS: Evidence was drawn from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs, and from case series for the ablative procedures only, in people with localised prostate cancer. For primary therapy, the ablative therapies were cryotherapy, HIFU, brachytherapy and other ablative therapies. The comparators were AS, RP and EBRT. For salvage therapy, the ablative therapies were cryotherapy and HIFU. The comparator was RP. Outcomes were cancer related, adverse effects (functional and procedural) and quality of life. Two reviewers extracted data and carried out quality assessment. Meta-analysis used a Bayesian indirect mixed-treatment comparison. Data were incorporated into an individual simulation Markov model to estimate cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The searches identified 121 studies for inclusion in the review of patients undergoing primary treatment and nine studies for the review of salvage treatment. Cryotherapy [3995 patients; 14 case series, 1 RCT and 4 non-randomised comparative studies (NRCSs)], HIFU (4000 patients; 20 case series, 1 NRCS) and brachytherapy (26,129 patients; 2 RCTs, 38 NRCSs) studies provided limited data for meta-analyses. All studies were considered at high risk of bias. There was no robust evidence that mortality (4-year survival 93% for cryotherapy, 99% for HIFU, 91% for EBRT) or other cancer-specific outcomes differed between treatments. For functional and quality-of-life outcomes, the paucity of data prevented any definitive conclusions from being made, although data on incontinence rates and erectile dysfunction for all ablative procedures were generally numerically lower than for non-ablative procedures. The safety profiles were comparable with existing treatments. Studies reporting the use of focal cryotherapy suggested that incontinence rates may be better than for whole-gland treatment. Data on AS, salvage treatment and other ablative therapies were too limited. The cost-effectiveness analysis confirmed the uncertainty from the clinical review and that there is no technology which appears superior, on the basis of current evidence, in terms of average cost-effectiveness. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggest that a number of ablative techniques are worthy of further research. LIMITATIONS: The main limitations were the quantity and quality of the data available on cancer-related outcomes and dysfunction. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that there is insufficient evidence to form any clear recommendations on the use of ablative therapies in order to influence current clinical practice. Research efforts in the use of ablative therapies in the management of prostate cancer should now be concentrated on the performance of RCTs and the generation of standardised outcomes. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002461. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Exposure misclassification due to residential mobility during pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES: Pregnant women are a highly mobile group, yet studies suggest exposure error due to migration in pregnancy is minimal. We aimed to investigate the impact of maternal residential mobility on exposure to environmental variables (urban fabric, roads and air pollution (PM10 and NO2)) and socio-economic factors (deprivation) that varied spatially and temporally. METHODS: We used data on residential histories for deliveries at ≥ 24 weeks gestation recorded by the Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey, 2000-2008 (n=5399) to compare: (a) exposure at conception assigned to maternal postcode at delivery versus maternal postcode at conception, and (b) exposure at conception assigned to maternal postcode at delivery versus mean exposure based on residences throughout pregnancy. RESULTS: In this population, 24.4% of women moved during pregnancy. Depending on the exposure variable assessed, 1-12% of women overall were assigned an exposure at delivery >1 SD different to that at conception, and 2-25% assigned an exposure at delivery >1 SD different to the mean exposure throughout pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: To meaningfully explore the subtle associations between environmental exposures and health, consideration must be given to error introduced by residential mobility.

Achieving best practice tariff may not reflect improved survival after hip fracture treatment.

OBJECTIVE: The best practice tariff (BPT) incentivizes hospitals in the England and Wales National Health Service to provide multiprofessional care to patients with hip fractures. The initial six targets included: 1) admission under consultant-led joint orthopedic-geriatric care, 2) multidisciplinary assessment protocol on admission, 3) surgery within 36 hours, 4) geriatrician review within 72 hours, 5) multiprofessional rehabilitation, and 6) assessment for falls and bone protection. We aimed to examine the relationship between BPT achievement and important patient outcomes and whether the BPT could predict these independently of other validated predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted on 516 patient episodes. Four outcomes were defined: 1) 30-day mortality, 2) 365-day mortality, 3) postoperative length of stay on trauma ward (LOS-T), and 4) total post-operative hospital LOS (LOS-H). Patient episodes were grouped as follows: 1) group 1, pre-BPT, 2) group 2, BPT achievers, 3) group 3, BPT fails. These were compared for mortality (χ (2) test) and for LOS (Kruskal-Wallis test). Event analysis was done for groups 2 and 3 using generalized linear modeling, with age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, hemoglobin, albumin, creatinine, and BPT achievement evaluated as predictors. RESULTS: The three groups did not differ significantly in baseline characteristics or outcomes. In the event analysis, the risk of 30-day mortality was related only to abnormal creatinine (P=0.025); mortality at 365 days was related significantly to low albumin (P=0.023) and weakly to abnormal creatinine (P=0.089). The risks of both increased LOS-T and LOS-H were related to age only (P=0.052, P<0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: Achieving BPT does not predict any outcome of interest on its own.

Molecular epidemiology and population structure of the honey bee brood pathogen Melissococcus plutonius.

Melissococcus plutonius is the causative agent of European foulbrood (EFB), which is a serious brood disease of the European honey bee (Apis mellifera). EFB remains a threat because of a poor understanding of disease epidemiology. We used a recently published multi-locus sequence typing method to characterise 206 M. plutonius isolates recovered from outbreaks in England and Wales over the course of 2 years. We detected 15 different sequence types (STs), which were resolved by eBURST and phylogenetic analysis into three clonal complexes (CCs) 3, 12 and 13. Single and double locus variants within CC3 were the most abundant and widespread genotypes, accounting for 85% of the cases. In contrast, CCs 12 and 13 were rarer and predominantly found in geographical regions of high sampling intensity, consistent with a more recent introduction and localised spread. K-function analysis and interpoint distance tests revealed significant geographical clustering in five common STs, but pointed to different dispersal patterns between STs. We noted that CCs appeared to vary in pathogenicity and that infection caused by the more pathogenic variants is more likely to lead to honey bee colony destruction, as opposed to treatment. The importance of these findings for improving our understanding of disease aetiology and control are discussed.

Lower Back Symptoms in Adolescent Soccer Players: Predictors of Functional Recovery.

BACKGROUND: There are little published data on factors relating to low back pain in the younger athletic population. HYPOTHESIS: Independent predictors of recovery and return to participation in sports could be determined by event analysis, which investigates the impacts of covariates, including age, position, and injury type, on the risk of delayed recovery after injury. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiology study. METHODS: This study examined 41 English Premiership soccer academy squads consisting of 12,306 player seasons for the incidence of lower back injury, injury severity, and investigated time to recovery in relation to potential risk factors. Injury risk was assessed for different times in a match and season, mechanism of injury, player position, player age, and competitive compared with noncompetitive play. RESULTS: A total of 310 (3.0% of all injuries sustained in the population) lumbar spine injuries were recorded. Overall, 10,265 training days (median, 14 days; interquartile range, 8-30 days) were lost. The risk of injury increased as the first half progressed and was maintained throughout the second half with a contact mechanism and with increasing age. Neither competitive play compared with noncompetitive play nor player position had an effect on injury incidence. Prognostic factors for poor recovery were bony injuries and increasing age. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that prolonged absence from training after a back injury is seen, especially in bony injuries and in older adolescents. It is suggested that there should be a low threshold for investigation of adolescent patients with back pain in the hope of early appropriate management of more severe diagnoses.

Clustering, persistence and control of a pollinator brood disease: epidemiology of American foulbrood.

American foulbrood (AFB), caused by Paenibacillus larvae, is the most damaging bacterial brood disease of the honeybee (Apis mellifera), causing colony deaths on all continents where honeybees are managed. AFB has been a persistent problem in the UK for over 70 years, with a fluctuating number of cases discovered annually. Once diseased colonies are identified, they are destroyed to reduce pathogen spread. We investigated the pattern of AFB cases recorded over the period 1994 to 2012 using spatial-statistical approaches, with a view to identifying the nature of spread across England and Wales. Our results indicated that AFB exhibits significant spatial aggregation at distances from 10 to 30 km, with aggregations lasting between 1 and 5 years. Kernel smoothing indicated areas of elevated relative risk in different years, and these were further detailed by spatial-scan statistics. We identified disease clusters and successfully estimated their size, location and duration. The majority of clusters did not persist in all years, indicating that management measures may lead to localized extinction of the disease. Whilst less common, persistent clusters likely indicate potential endemic or exotic risk points. The application of robust epidemiological approaches to improve the control of AFB is discussed.

BCG vaccination reduces risk of tuberculosis infection in vaccinated badgers and unvaccinated badger cubs.

Wildlife is a global source of endemic and emerging infectious diseases. The control of tuberculosis (TB) in cattle in Britain and Ireland is hindered by persistent infection in wild badgers (Meles meles). Vaccination with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) has been shown to reduce the severity and progression of experimentally induced TB in captive badgers. Analysis of data from a four-year clinical field study, conducted at the social group level, suggested a similar, direct protective effect of BCG in a wild badger population. Here we present new evidence from the same study identifying both a direct beneficial effect of vaccination in individual badgers and an indirect protective effect in unvaccinated cubs. We show that intramuscular injection of BCG reduced by 76% (Odds ratio = 0.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11-0.52) the risk of free-living vaccinated individuals testing positive to a diagnostic test combination to detect progressive infection. A more sensitive panel of tests for the detection of infection per se identified a reduction of 54% (Odds ratio = 0.46, 95% CI 0.26-0.88) in the risk of a positive result following vaccination. In addition, we show the risk of unvaccinated badger cubs, but not adults, testing positive to an even more sensitive panel of diagnostic tests decreased significantly as the proportion of vaccinated individuals in their social group increased (Odds ratio = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.76; P = 0.03). When more than a third of their social group had been vaccinated, the risk to unvaccinated cubs was reduced by 79% (Odds ratio = 0.21, 95% CI 0.05-0.81; P = 0.02).

Thigh muscle injuries in youth soccer: predictors of recovery.

BACKGROUND: Participation in soccer at younger ages with attendant risk of muscle injury is increasing. PURPOSE: To delineate patterns of thigh muscle injury and predictors of recovery in male youth soccer academy players. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. METHODS: Forty-one English Premiership soccer academy squads (all male, aged 8-16 years) over a 5-year period comprising 12 306 player seasons were studied prospectively for pattern, mechanism, and outcome after thigh muscle injury. Event analysis was used to identify independent predictors of slow recovery. RESULTS: A total of 1288 injuries were recorded representing an incidence (mean [SD]) of 0.42 (0.24) per thousand hours of training with a mean annual incidence of 0.52. Midfield players received the most injuries, followed by defense and attack positions. The quadriceps muscle group was most likely to be injured. There were 345 reinjuries (27%). Median time off for a primary injury was 13 days (interquartile range, 7-22 days) and 12 days (7-21 days) following a reinjury. Risk of such injury increased as the game progressed toward the end of the first half period (P = .028), and this risk persisted throughout the entire second half. There were 2 peaks of incidence (January and September). The percentage of the total for hamstring, adductor, and quadriceps injuries did not significantly change with player age. However, the proportion of injuries that were severe increased with age of player (t = 3.72, P = .010). Poor prognostic factors for recovery were hamstring injuries (z = 2.182, P = .029), contact injury (z = -3.137, P = .002), and older age (z = -2.2298, P = .022). CONCLUSION: The risk for prolonged recovery from thigh muscle injury was found to increase with age of the player and contact mechanism. The risk of injury increased toward the end of the first half, and this risk persisted throughout the second half. Delayed recovery was significantly associated with a hamstring muscle injury, first injury, and contact mechanism. This study, for the first time, allows identification of youth male soccer players at high-risk for prolonged symptoms after thigh muscle injury.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination reduces the severity and progression of tuberculosis in badgers.

Control of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle has proven particularly challenging where reservoirs of infection exist in wildlife populations. In Britain and Ireland, control is hampered by a reservoir of infection in Eurasian badgers (Meles meles). Badger culling has positive and negative effects on bovine TB in cattle and is difficult, costly and controversial. Here we show that Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination of captive badgers reduced the progression, severity and excretion of Mycobacterium bovis infection after experimental challenge. In a clinical field study, BCG vaccination of free-living badgers reduced the incidence of positive serological test results by 73.8 per cent. In common with other species, BCG did not appear to prevent infection of badgers subjected to experimental challenge, but did significantly reduce the overall disease burden. BCG vaccination of badgers could comprise an important component of a comprehensive programme of measures to control bovine TB in cattle.

Descriptive epidemiology of congenital heart disease in Northern England.

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the most prevalent group of congenital anomalies. There is considerable variation in the reported epidemiology of CHD, mainly attributable to methodological differences. Using register-based data, the current study describes the epidemiology of CHD in a geographically well-defined population of the North of England during 1985-2003. The total prevalence of CHD was 85.9 per 10 000 births and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. Livebirth prevalence was 79.7 per 10 000 livebirths. Both total and livebirth prevalence increased during the study period. Ninety-two per cent of affected pregnancies resulted in a livebirth, 5% were terminated, 2% resulted in a stillbirth, and 1% in a late miscarriage. Almost a quarter (23%) of cases had one or more coincident anomalies of other organs, with chromosomal abnormalities the most frequent group. A total of 89.2% of cases survived to 1 year and the survival improved during the study period. This population-based study has demonstrated an increasing trend in both prevalence and survival among children with CHD.

Space-time analysis of Down syndrome: results consistent with transient pre-disposing contagious agent.

BACKGROUND: Whilst maternal age is an established risk factor for Patau syndrome (trisomy 13), Edwards syndrome (trisomy 18) and Down syndrome (trisomy 21), the aetiology and contribution of genetic and environmental factors remains unclear. We analysed for space-time clustering using high quality fully population-based data from a geographically defined region. METHODS: The study included all cases of Patau, Edwards and Down syndrome, delivered during 1985-2003 and resident in the former Northern Region of England, including terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. We applied the K-function test for space-time clustering with fixed thresholds of close in space and time using residential addresses at time of delivery. The Knox test was used to indicate the range over which the clustering effect occurred. Tests were repeated using nearest neighbour (NN) thresholds to adjust for variable population density. RESULTS: The study analysed 116 cases of Patau syndrome, 240 cases of Edwards syndrome and 1084 cases of Down syndrome. There was evidence of space-time clustering for Down syndrome (fixed threshold of close in space: P = 0.01, NN threshold: P = 0.02), but little or no clustering for Patau (P = 0.57, P = 0.19) or Edwards (P = 0.37, P = 0.06) syndromes. Clustering of Down syndrome was associated with cases from more densely populated areas and evidence of clustering persisted when cases were restricted to maternal age <40 years. CONCLUSIONS: The highly novel space-time clustering for Down syndrome suggests an aetiological role for transient environmental factors, such as infections.

Visualization, modelling and prediction in soil microbiology.

The introduction of new approaches for characterizing microbial communities and imaging soil environments has benefited soil microbiology by providing new ways of detecting and locating microorganisms. Consequently, soil microbiology is poised to progress from simply cataloguing microbial complexity to becoming a systems science. A systems approach will enable the structures of microbial communities to be characterized and will inform how microbial communities affect soil function. Systems approaches require accurate analyses of the spatio-temporal properties of the different microenvironments present in soil. In this Review we advocate the need for the convergence of the experimental and theoretical approaches that are used to characterize and model the development of microbial communities in soils.