ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Drug-related deaths in Scotland more than doubled between 2011 and 2020. To inform policymakers and understand drivers of this increase, we estimated the number of people with opioid dependence aged 15-64 from 2014/15 to 2019/20. DESIGN: We fitted a Bayesian multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) model, using adverse event rates to estimate prevalence of opioid dependence jointly from Opioid Agonist Therapy (OAT), opioid-related mortality and hospital admissions data. Estimates are stratified by age group, sex and year. SETTING: Scotland, 2014/15 to 2019/20. PARTICIPANTS: People with opioid dependence and potential to benefit from OAT, whether ever treated or not. Using data from the Scottish Public Health Drug Linkage Programme, we identified a baseline cohort of individuals who had received OAT within the last 5 years, and all opioid-related deaths and hospital admissions (whether among or outside of this cohort). MEASUREMENTS: Rates of each adverse event type and (unobserved) prevalence were jointly modelled. FINDINGS: The estimated number and prevalence of people with opioid dependence in Scotland in 2019/20 was 47 100 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 45 700 to 48 600) and 1.32% (95% CrI 1.28% to 1.37%). Of these, 61% received OAT during 2019/20. Prevalence in Greater Glasgow and Clyde was estimated as 1.77% (95% CrI 1.69% to 1.85%). There was weak evidence that overall prevalence fell slightly from 2014/15 (change -0.07%, 95% CrI -0.14% to 0.00%). The population of people with opioid dependence is ageing, with the estimated number of people aged 15-34 reducing by 5100 (95% CrI 3800 to 6400) and number aged 50-64 increasing by 2800 (95% CrI 2100 to 3500) between 2014/15 and 2019/20. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland remained high but was relatively stable, with only weak evidence of a small reduction, between 2014/15 and 2019/20. Increased numbers of opioid-related deaths can be attributed to increased risk among people with opioid dependence, rather than increasing prevalence.
Subject(s)
Alcoholic Beverages , Ethanol , Humans , Costs and Cost Analysis , Alcohol Drinking/epidemiology , CommerceABSTRACT
In a climate of public sector austerity, the demand for accurate information about disease epidemiology rises as health program managers try to align spending to health needs. A policy of case re-notification to improve HIV information quality resulted in a nine-fold increase in the number of case reports received in 2013 by the Portuguese HIV surveillance office. We used value stream mapping to introduce improvements to data processing practices, identify and reduce waste. Two cycles of improvement were trialled. Before intervention, processing time was nine minutes and 28 seconds (95%CI 8:53-10:58) per report. Two months post intervention, it was six minutes and 34 seconds (95% CI 6:25-6:43). One year after the start of the project, processing time was five minutes and 20 seconds (95% CI 1:46-8:52).
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: It is estimated that over half of newly diagnosed HIV infections in Europe present late. An HIV positive individual presenting late to care represents a missed opportunity to benefit from treatment, increasing the risk of morbidity and mortality at an individual level, and onward disease transmission at population level. Reducing late presentation is a strategic priority of the Portuguese HIV/AIDS program. We set out to describe the characteristics of late presentation in the two largest transmission risk groups currently in Portugal to inform HIV prevention and treatment. METHODS: We extracted details of all notified cases from individuals over 15 years with a laboratory confirmed HIV diagnosis made between January 2011 and December 2013 from the Portuguese HIV surveillance database and selected cases from heterosexuals and men who have sex with men (MSM). We defined late presentation as an initial CD4 count <350 cells/mm(3) or presence of AIDS-defining disease at time of HIV diagnosis. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for characteristics associated with late presentation in separate logistic regression for heterosexuals and MSM. RESULTS: Of 4219 HIV positive cases notified, 2589 (61%) were heterosexuals and 1220 (29%) were MSM. A total of 1586 (38%) cases presented late of which 1037 (40%) were heterosexual and 328 (27%) were MSM. The median age at late presentation was 40 in heterosexual women, 46 in heterosexual men and 35 in MSM. A total of 1446 (55%) of heterosexual HIV positive adults were unaware of having had a high risk sexual contact. Late presentation among heterosexuals was associated with being male (aOR=1.58 95% CI 1.29-1.93), not knowing a partners' HIV status (OR=1.59 95% CI 1.35-1.87) and age, increasing the odds of late presentation by a factor of 1.02 per year (95% CI 1.01-1.03). Among MSM, only age was associated with late presentation, increasing by 1.04 (95% CI 1.03-1.05) per year. CONCLUSIONS: Portuguese HIV prevention programs need to increase the risk awareness of heterosexuals, particularly men, to reduce missed opportunities for early diagnosis. As half of all cases presenting late are aged 40 and over, we recommend that general HIV outreach services and specialist services for MSM review their accessibility and acceptability to both middle and older-aged clients.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is an important global public health problem made all the more important by the increased likelihood of disability following a hospital admission for TBI. Understanding those groups most at risk will help inform interventions designed to prevent causes of TBI, such as falls prevention measures. This study identifies the rate of hospitalisation episodes of TBI in Scotland, explores causes of TBI admissions, and trends in hospitalisation episodes by age and gender over a twelve year period using routinely collected hospital data. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of routine hospital episode data identified records relating to TBI for the twelve years between 1998 and 2009. Descriptive and joinpoint regression analysis were used, average annual percentage changes (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) in rates were calculated. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2009 there were 208,195 recorded episodes of continuous hospital care in Scotland as a result of TBI. Almost half (47%) of all TBIs were the result of falls, with marked peaks observed in the very young and the oldest groups. The AAPC of hospitalization episode rates over the study period for boys and girls aged 0-14 were -4.9% (95% CI -3.5 to-6.3) and -4.7% (95% CI -2.6 to -6.8) respectively. This reduction was not observed in older age groups. In women aged 65 and over there was an APC of 3.9% (95% CI 1.2 to 6.6) between 2004 and 2009. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalisation for TBI is relatively common in Scotland. The rise in the age-adjusted rate of hospitalisation episodes observed in older people indicates that reduction of TBI should be a public health priority in countries with an ageing population. Public health interventions such as falls prevention measures are well advised and evaluations of such interventions should consider including TBI hospitalisation as an alternative or supplementary outcome measure to fractured neck of femur. Further research is needed to advance understanding of the associations of risk factors with increased incidence of TBI hospital episodes in the elderly population.
