Engagement in the digital age: Understanding "what works" for participatory technologies in environmental decision-making.

Effective engagement is crucial for enhancing environmental decision-making processes, fostering more sustainable and equitable outcomes. However, the success of engagement is highly variable and context-dependent. While theoretical frameworks have been developed to explain outcome variance in engagement in environmental decision-making, they have not yet been tested in digital contexts, leaving their applicability to digital engagement processes unclear. More broadly, there are unanswered questions about the effectiveness of digital tools in achieving the goals of engagement, which have become increasingly pertinent amidst growing concerns about the potential of digital technologies for exacerbating exclusions, ethical issues, and systematically undermining democratic progress. This paper addresses this evidence gap by presenting findings from interviews with practitioners in UK public, private, and third sector organisations. Our results provide empirical insights into the technical, ethical, and inclusivity debates surrounding digital tools and their effectiveness in promoting accessible engagement, high-quality social interaction, place-based decision-making, and more trustworthy and credible outcomes. Our findings indicate that while current engagement theories are applicable to digital environments, the key explanatory factors acquire new dimensions in digital compared to in-person contexts. Drawing on the findings, this study contributes novel insights to expand current theory for explaining "what works" in engagement in environmental decisions, enhancing its relevance and applicability in the digital age. The paper concludes with evidence-led recommendations for environmental practitioners to improve engagement processes in digital and remote settings.

Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes.

Extreme precipitation is projected to intensify with warming, but how this will manifest locally through time is uncertain. Here, we exploit an ensemble of convection-permitting transient simulations to examine the emerging signal in local hourly rainfall extremes over 100-years. We show rainfall events in the UK exceeding 20 mm/h that can cause flash floods are 4-times as frequent by 2070s under high emissions; in contrast, a coarser resolution regional model shows only a 2.6x increase. With every degree of regional warming, the intensity of extreme downpours increases by 5-15%. Regional records of local hourly rainfall occur 40% more often than in the absence of warming. However, these changes are not realised as a smooth trend. Instead, as a result of internal variability, extreme years with record-breaking events may be followed by multiple decades with no new local rainfall records. The tendency for extreme years to cluster poses key challenges for communities trying to adapt.