Seed Menus: An integrated decision-support framework for native plant restoration in the Mojave Desert.

The combination of ecosystem stressors, rapid climate change, and increasing landscape-scale development has necessitated active restoration across large tracts of disturbed habitats in the arid southwestern United States. In this context, programmatic directives such as the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration have increasingly emphasized improved restoration practices that promote resilient, diverse plant communities, and enhance native seed reserves. While decision-support tools have been implemented to support genetic diversity by guiding seed transfer decisions based on patterns in local adaptation, less emphasis has been placed on identifying priority seed mixes composed of native species assemblages. Well-designed seed mixes can provide foundational ecosystem services including resilience to disturbance, resistance to invasive species, plant canopy structure to facilitate natural seedling recruitment, and habitat to support wildlife and pollinator communities. Drawing from a newly developed dataset of species distribution models for priority native plant taxa in the Mojave Desert, we created a novel decision support tool by pairing spatial predictions of species habitat with a database of key species traits including life history, flowering characteristics, pollinator relationships, and propagation methods. This publicly available web application, Mojave Seed Menus, helps restoration practitioners generate customized seed mixes for native plant restoration in the Mojave Desert based on project locations. Our application forms part of an integrated Mojave Desert restoration program designed to help practitioners identify species to include in local seed mixes and nursery stock development while accounting for local adaptation by identifying appropriate seed source locations from key restoration species.

Harnessing landscape genomics to identify future climate resilient genotypes in a desert annual.

Local adaptation features critically in shaping species responses to changing environments, complicating efforts to revegetate degraded areas. Rapid climate change poses an additional challenge that could reduce fitness of even locally sourced seeds in restoration. Predictive restoration strategies that apply seeds with favourable adaptations to future climate may promote long-term resilience. Landscape genomics is increasingly used to assess spatial patterns in local adaption and may represent a cost-efficient approach for identifying future-adapted genotypes. To demonstrate such an approach, we genotyped 760 plants from 64 Mojave Desert populations of the desert annual Plantago ovata. Genome scans on 5,960 SNPs identified 184 potentially adaptive loci related to climate and satellite vegetation metrics. Causal modelling indicated that variation in potentially adaptive loci was not confounded by isolation by distance or isolation by habitat resistance. A generalized dissimilarity model (GDM) attributed spatial turnover in potentially adaptive loci to temperature, precipitation and NDVI amplitude, a measure of vegetation green-up potential. By integrating a species distribution model (SDM), we find evidence that summer maximum temperature may both constrain the range of P. ovata and drive adaptive divergence in populations exposed to higher temperatures. Within the species' current range, warm-adapted genotypes are predicted to experience a fivefold expansion in climate niche by midcentury and could harbour key adaptations to cope with future climate. We recommend eight seed transfer zones and project each zone into its relative position in future climate. Prioritizing seed collection efforts on genotypes with expanding future habitat represents a promising strategy for restoration practitioners to address rapidly changing climates.

Landscape genetic approaches to guide native plant restoration in the Mojave Desert.

Restoring dryland ecosystems is a global challenge due to synergistic drivers of disturbance coupled with unpredictable environmental conditions. Dryland plant species have evolved complex life-history strategies to cope with fluctuating resources and climatic extremes. Although rarely quantified, local adaptation is likely widespread among these species and potentially influences restoration outcomes. The common practice of reintroducing propagules to restore dryland ecosystems, often across large spatial scales, compels evaluation of adaptive divergence within these species. Such evaluations are critical to understanding the consequences of large-scale manipulation of gene flow and to predicting success of restoration efforts. However, genetic information for species of interest can be difficult and expensive to obtain through traditional common garden experiments. Recent advances in landscape genetics offer marker-based approaches for identifying environmental drivers of adaptive genetic variability in non-model species, but tools are still needed to link these approaches with practical aspects of ecological restoration. Here, we combine spatially explicit landscape genetics models with flexible visualization tools to demonstrate how cost-effective evaluations of adaptive genetic divergence can facilitate implementation of different seed sourcing strategies in ecological restoration. We apply these methods to Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) markers genotyped in two Mojave Desert shrub species of high restoration importance: the long-lived, wind-pollinated gymnosperm Ephedra nevadensis, and the short-lived, insect-pollinated angiosperm Sphaeralcea ambigua. Mean annual temperature was identified as an important driver of adaptive genetic divergence for both species. Ephedra showed stronger adaptive divergence with respect to precipitation variability, while temperature variability and precipitation averages explained a larger fraction of adaptive divergence in Sphaeralcea. We describe multivariate statistical approaches for interpolating spatial patterns of adaptive divergence while accounting for potential bias due to neutral genetic structure. Through a spatial bootstrapping procedure, we also visualize patterns in the magnitude of model uncertainty. Finally, we introduce an interactive, distance-based mapping approach that explicitly links marker-based models of adaptive divergence with local or admixture seed sourcing strategies, promoting effective native plant restoration.

Direct and indirect effects of environmental variability on growth and survivorship of pre-reproductive Joshua trees, Yucca brevifolia Engelm. (Agavaceae).

UNLABELLED: • PREMISE OF STUDY: Accurate demographic information about long-lived plant species is important for understanding responses to large-scale disturbances, including climate change. It is challenging to obtain these data from desert perennial plants because seedling establishment is exceptionally rare, and estimates of survival are lacking for their vulnerable early stages. Desert wildfires, urbanization, and climate change influence the persistence of the long-lived Yucca brevifolia. Quantitative demographic attributes are crucial for understanding how populations will respond to disturbances and where populations will recede or advance under future climate scenarios.• METHODS: We measured survival in a cohort of 53 pre-reproductive Y. brevifolia at Yucca Flat, Nevada, USA, for 22 yr and recorded their growth, nurse-plant relationships, and herbivory.• KEY RESULTS: Herbivory by black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus) caused severe losses of plants during the first and second years (45% and 31%, respectively). Surviving plants experienced <2.5% annual mortality. Survival for the population was 19% over 22 yr. Plants <25 cm in height had lower life expectancy. Average growth rate (± SD) for plants that survived to the last census was 3.12 ± 1.96 cm yr(-1), and growth rates were positively associated with precipitation. Thirty-year-old Y. brevifolia had not yet reproduced.• CONCLUSIONS: A rare establishment event for Y. brevifolia during 1983-1984, triggered by above-average summer rainfall, provided a unique opportunity to track early survival and growth. Infrequent but acute episodes of herbivory during drought influenced demography for decades. Variability in survival among young Y. brevifolia indicates that size-dependent demographic variables will improve forecasts for this long-lived desert species under predicted regional climate change.

Population viability of Pediocactus bradyi (Cactaceae) in a changing climate.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi, an endangered cactus in northern Arizona. METHODS: We used a matrix model to calculate stochastic population growth rates (λs) and the relative influences of life-cycle transitions on population growth. Regression models linked population growth with climatic variability, while stochastic simulations were used to (1) understand how predicted increases in drought frequency and extreme precipitation would affect λs, and (2) quantify variability in λs based on temporal replication of data. KEY RESULTS: Overall λs was below unity (0.961). Population growth was equally influenced by fecundity and survival and significantly correlated with increased annual precipitation and higher winter temperatures. Stochastic simulations increasing the probability of drought and extreme precipitation reduced λs, but less than simulations increasing the probability of drought alone. Simulations varying the temporal replication of data suggested 14 yr were required for accurate λs estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events.

Life-history traits predict perennial species response to fire in a desert ecosystem.

The Mojave Desert of North America has become fire-prone in recent decades due to invasive annual grasses that fuel wildfires following years of high rainfall. Perennial species are poorly adapted to fire in this system, and post-fire shifts in species composition have been substantial but variable across community types. To generalize across a range of conditions, we investigated whether simple life-history traits could predict how species responded to fire. Further, we classified species into plant functional types (PFTs) based on combinations of life-history traits and evaluated whether these groups exhibited a consistent fire-response. Six life-history traits varied significantly between burned and unburned areas in short (up to 4 years) or long-term (up to 52 years) post-fire datasets, including growth form, lifespan, seed size, seed dispersal, height, and leaf longevity. Forbs and grasses consistently increased in abundance after fire, while cacti were reduced and woody species exhibited a variable response. Woody species were classified into three PFTs based on combinations of life-history traits. Species in Group 1 increased in abundance after fire and were characterized by short lifespans, small, wind-dispersed seeds, low height, and deciduous leaves. Species in Group 2 were reduced by fire and distinguished from Group 1 by longer lifespans and evergreen leaves. Group 3 species, which also decreased after fire, were characterized by long lifespans, large non-wind dispersed seeds, and taller heights. Our results show that PFTs based on life-history traits can reliably predict the responses of most species to fire in the Mojave Desert. Dominant, long-lived species of this region possess a combination of traits limiting their ability to recover, presenting a clear example of how a novel disturbance regime may shift selective environmental pressures to favor alternative life-history strategies.