Fiscal Policy Dilemma in Resolving Agricultural Risks: Evidence from China's Agricultural Insurance Subsidy Pilot.

The agricultural insurance subsidy policy (AISP) encourages farmers to expand production scale by mitigating production risks. Under the high-input production patterns of traditional agriculture, the implementation of AISP is conducive to increase farmers' income, but it also leads to the destruction of the agricultural environment. Achieving agricultural green development (AGD) has been hindered in China. In this context, this paper attempts to analyze the impact of AISP on farmers' income and the agricultural environment. Based on the panel data of 316 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2012 in China, this paper empirically tests the effects of AISP by employing methods such as time-varying difference-in-difference (DID). The results show that AISP has significantly promoted the growth of farmers' incomes but has negatively impacted the agricultural environment. Furthermore, the mechanism analysis shows that the policy effects are realized by affecting the quantity of main productive fixed assets (Mpfa) and grain sown area per capita (Gsa). In addition, the policy effect is heterogeneous in different regions. Therefore, the government should appropriately raise the subsidy standard for farmers who adopt environmental-friendly production patterns. At the same time, the government should give more subsidies to the large grain-producing areas.

[Stature estimation for Sichuan Han nationality female based on X-ray technology with measurement of lumbar vertebrae].

OBJECTIVE: To establish the mathematical models of stature estimation for Sichuan Han female with measurement of lumbar vertebrae by X-ray to provide essential data for forensic anthropology research. METHODS: The samples, 206 Sichuan Han females, were divided into three groups including group A, B and C according to the ages. Group A (206 samples) consisted of all ages, group B (116 samples) were 20-45 years old and 90 samples over 45 years old were group C. All the samples were examined lumbar vertebrae through CR technology, including the parameters of five centrums (L1-L5) as anterior border, posterior border and central heights (x1-x15), total central height of lumbar spine (x16), and the real height of every sample. The linear regression analysis was produced using the parameters to establish the mathematical models of stature estimation. Sixty-two trained subjects were tested to verify the accuracy of the mathematical models. RESULTS: The established mathematical models by hypothesis test of linear regression equation model were statistically significant (P<0.05). The standard errors of the equation were 2.982-5.004 cm, while correlation coefficients were 0.370-0.779 and multiple correlation coefficients were 0.533-0.834. The return tests of the highest correlation coefficient and multiple correlation coefficient of each group showed that the highest accuracy of the multiple regression equation, y = 100.33 + 1.489 x3 - 0.548 x6 + 0.772 x9 + 0.058 x12 + 0.645 x15, in group A were 80.6% (+/- lSE) and 100% (+/- 2SE). CONCLUSION: The established mathematical models in this study could be applied for the stature estimation for Sichuan Han females.

[Stature estimation of teenagers by limb long bones with computerized radiography].

OBJECTIVE: Relative parameters of upper limb bones, tibia and fibula were measured with computed radiography and used to establish the mathematical models for stature estimation of teenagers (from 14 to 18 years old) of Han population in Sichuan Province. METHODS: The upper limb bones, tibia and fibula of 194 subjects were taken computerized radiography on normal position and were measured the lengths between relative landmarks. The body height of each subject was recorded. Linear regression equations for stature estimation between body height and the lengths of upper limb bones, tibia and fibula were established. RESULTS: Forty-two single linear regression equations and 4 multiple regression equations were obtained. The coefficients of correlation(r) were 0.689-0.917 and the standard errors of estimate(SE) were between 3.075 and 5.485 cm. All of the equations were statistically tested and diagnosed with good applicability. CONCLUSION: These equations could be used to estimate the body height of Sichuan Han population aged from 14 to 18. The lengths of the upper limb bones, tibia and fibula measured on the CR films could be useful to stature estimation of the adolescence and the forensic personal identification.

[Stature estimation from upper extremity long bones by digital radiography].

OBJECTIVE: To obtain regression formula for estimation of stature in Han population in Sichuan Province from length of the upper extremity long bones by digital radiography. METHODS: The statures of 365 healthy adults and digital radiographs of their right upper extremity long bones were measured. All statistical dispositions were done in SPSS including description and regression analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-seven simple regression and 3 multiple regression formulae with statistic significance in estimation of the stature from the sum of the length of the upper extremity long bones were established. Regression coefficient was higher in ulna than in radius, in male than in female, and was more accurate in multiple regression formulae than in simple regression formulae. CONCLUSION: Digital radiograph measurement of the length of the upper extremity long bones seems to be a simple and practical method to estimate human stature in forensic practice.