Facilitating safe discharge through predicting disease progression in moderate COVID-19: a prospective cohort study to develop and validate a clinical prediction model in resource-limited settings

BackgroundIn locations where few people have received COVID-19 vaccines, health systems remain vulnerable to surges in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Tools to identify patients suitable for community-based management are urgently needed. MethodsWe prospectively recruited adults presenting to two hospitals in India with moderate symptoms of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in order to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to rule-out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement. The primary outcome was defined as any of the following: SpO2 < 94%; respiratory rate > 30 bpm; SpO2/FiO2 < 400; or death. We specified a priori that each model would contain three clinical parameters (age, sex and SpO2) and one of seven shortlisted biochemical biomarkers measurable using near-patient tests (CRP, D-dimer, IL-6, NLR, PCT, sTREM-1 or suPAR), to ensure the models would be suitable for resource-limited settings. We evaluated discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the models in a temporal external validation cohort. Findings426 participants were recruited, of whom 89 (21{middle dot}0%) met the primary outcome. 257 participants comprised the development cohort and 166 comprised the validation cohort. The three models containing NLR, suPAR or IL-6 demonstrated promising discrimination (c-statistics: 0{middle dot}72 to 0{middle dot}74) and calibration (calibration slopes: 1{middle dot}01 to 1{middle dot}05) in the validation cohort, and provided greater utility than a model containing the clinical parameters alone. InterpretationWe present three clinical prediction models that could help clinicians identify patients with moderate COVID-19 suitable for community-based management. The models are readily implementable and of particular relevance for locations with limited resources. FundingMedecins Sans Frontieres, India. RESEARCH IN CONTEXTO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSA living systematic review by Wynants et al. identified 137 COVID-19 prediction models, 47 of which were derived to predict whether patients with COVID-19 will have an adverse outcome. Most lacked external validation, relied on retrospective data, did not focus on patients with moderate disease, were at high risk of bias, and were not practical for use in resource-limited settings. To identify promising biochemical biomarkers which may have been evaluated independently of a prediction model and therefore not captured by this review, we searched PubMed on 1 June 2020 using synonyms of "SARS-CoV-2" AND ["biomarker" OR "prognosis"]. We identified 1,214 studies evaluating biochemical biomarkers of potential value in the prognostication of COVID-19 illness. In consultation with FIND (Geneva, Switzerland) we shortlisted seven candidates for evaluation in this study, all of which are measurable using near-patient tests which are either currently available or in late-stage development. Added value of this studyWe followed the TRIPOD guidelines to develop and validate three promising clinical prediction models to help clinicians identify which patients presenting with moderate COVID-19 can be safely managed in the community. Each model contains three easily ascertained clinical parameters (age, sex, and SpO2) and one biochemical biomarker (NLR, suPAR or IL-6), and would be practical for implementation in high-patient-throughput low resource settings. The models showed promising discrimination and calibration in the validation cohort. The inclusion of a biomarker test improved prognostication compared to a model containing the clinical parameters alone, and extended the range of contexts in which such a tool might provide utility to include situations when bed pressures are less critical, for example at earlier points in a COVID-19 surge. Implications of all the available evidencePrognostic models should be developed for clearly-defined clinical use-cases. We report the development and temporal validation of three clinical prediction models to rule-out progression to supplemental oxygen requirement amongst patients presenting with moderate COVID-19. The models are readily implementable and should prove useful in triage and resource allocation. We provide our full models to enable independent validation.

Cross-sectional survey in patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes to understand mealtime insulin unmet needs in Japan: The MINUTES-J study.

AIMS: This study was conducted to evaluate existing burden and unmet needs related to mealtime insulin (MTI) injection timing among adult Japanese patients with type 1 (T1D) and type 2 (T2D) diabetes. It also aimed to evaluate if a novel MTI could reduce this burden. METHODS: This study comprised of a qualitative pilot study facilitating development of an online survey; followed by an online quantitative survey involving T1D, young T2D (yT2D) and elderly T2D (eT2D) patients to assess burden of current MTI timings in Japan. RESULTS: Overall, 38% patients (amongst T1D, yT2D and eT2D groups) reported injecting MTI just before start or during meal in the past month. Experiencing lower glucose level/hypoglycemic condition before the meal and forgetting were the main reasons for injecting during/after meal in T1D and T2D patients respectively. Patients reported moderate-to-severe burden in multiple aspects of their lives, associated with current MTI timing. Most patients perceived that this burden would remain the same if a faster acting MTI was available. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial burden reported by Japanese patients regarding the current MTI timings suggests the need for new MTI products that could achieve optimal post-prandial glucose control at different timings to meet patients' needs in Japan.

Pranlukast reduces asthma exacerbations during autumn especially in 1- to 5-year-old boys

BACKGROUND: Leukotriene receptor antagonists have been used to prevent virus-induced asthma exacerbations in autumn. Its efficacy, however, might differ with age and sex. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate whether pranlukast added to usual asthma therapy in Japanese children during autumn, season associated with the peak of asthma, reduces asthma exacerbations. It was also evaluated the effect of age and sex on pranlukast's efficacy. METHODS: A total of 121 asthmatic children aged 1 to 14 years were randomly assigned to receive regular pranlukast or not according to sex, and were divided in 2 age groups, 1–5 years and 6–14 years. The primary outcome was total asthma score calculated during 8 weeks by using a sticker calendar related to the days in which a child experienced a worsening of asthma symptoms. This open study lasted 60 days from September 15 to November 14, 2007. RESULTS: Significant differences in pranlukast efficacy were observed between sex and age groups. Boys aged 1 to 5 years had the lower total asthma score at 8 weeks (p = 0.002), and experienced fewer cold episodes (p = 0.007). There were no significant differences between pranlukast and control group in total asthma score at 8 weeks (p = 0.35), and in the days in which a child experienced a worsening of asthma symptoms (p = 0.67). CONCLUSION: There was a substantial benefit of adding pranlukast to usual therapy in asthmatic children, especially in boys aged 1 to 5 years, during autumn season.

Back Pain and Spinal Cysticercosis

No abstract available.

An introduction of simulation–based influenza education drill for medical students in Japan / 医学教育

The preparation for influenza pandemic has become very important. However, no standardized educational package against pandemics has been established to date. We developed a simulation–based education drill for Japanese medical students based on the package developed by U.S. medical school. The drill was adapted to 201 medical students, and was evaluated by self–administered questionnaires.<br>1)More than 90% of the students indicated that the use of this drill is appropriate to experience a simulated pandemic situation, and to learn skills and attitudes such as teamwork and communication.<br>2)Up to 65% of the students answered they learned a "very clear image" for the "Importance of working as a team with other professionals".<br>3)The results suggest that this simulation–based education drill make the students aware not only of the need for the preparation for pandemic but also the importance of team–based approach.