Forecasting the spatial and seasonal dynamic of Aedes albopictus oviposition activity in Albania and Balkan countries.

The increasing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in Europe and US raises public health concern due to the species competence to transmit several exotic human arboviruses, among which dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and urges the development of suitable modeling approach to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of the mosquito. Here we developed a dynamical species distribution modeling approach forecasting Ae. albopictus eggs abundance at high spatial (0.01 degree WGS84) and temporal (weekly) resolution over 10 Balkan countries, using temperature times series of Modis data products and altitude as input predictors. The model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated over Albania based observed eggs abundance data weekly monitored during three years. For a given week of the year, eggs abundance was mainly predicted by the number of eggs and the mean temperature recorded in the preceding weeks. That is, results are in agreement with the biological cycle of the mosquito, reflecting the effect temperature on eggs spawning, maturation and hatching. The model, seeded by initial egg values derived from a second model, was then used to forecast the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs abundance over the selected Balkan countries, weekly in 2011, 2012 and 2013. The present study is a baseline to develop an easy-handling forecasting model able to provide information useful for promoting active surveillance and possibly prevention of Ae. albopictus colonization in presently non-infested areas in the Balkans as well as in other temperate regions.

Enhancement of Aedes albopictus collections by ovitrap and sticky adult trap.

BACKGROUND: In the last decades, Aedes albopictus has become an increasing public health threat in tropical as well as in more recently invaded temperate areas due to its capacity to transmit several human arboviruses, among which Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika. Enhancing the efficiency of currently used collection approaches, such as ovitraps and sticky traps, is desirable for optimal monitoring of the species abundance, for assessment of the risk of arbovirus transmission and for the optimisation of control activities. FINDINGS: Two sets of 4 × 4 Latin-square experiments were carried out in Tirana (Albania) to test whether modifications in ovitrap shape and size and in oviposition substrate would increase collections of Ae. albopictus eggs and whether hay-infusion would increase adult catches by sticky trap. Generalized Linear Mixed Models with negative binomial error distribution were carried out to analyse the data. Cylindrical ovitraps lined with germination paper yielded significantly higher egg catches than those exploiting either the (commonly used) wooden paddles or floating polystyrene blocks as oviposition substrates. No difference was observed between cylindrical and conical shaped ovitraps. Ovitraps and sticky traps baited with hay infusion yielded significantly higher egg and adult catches than un-baited ones. A significant relationship between ovitrap and sticky trap catches was observed both in the absence and in the presence of attractants, with ovitrap catches increasing more than sticky trap catches at increasing adult female densities. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides grounds for optimisation of ovitraps and sticky traps as monitoring tools for Ae. albopictus by (i) supporting use of germination paper as most appropriate oviposition substrate; (ii) suggesting the possible use of stackable conical ovitraps for large scale monitoring; (iii) confirming the use of hay-infusion to increase egg catches in ovitraps, and showing that hay-infusion also significant increases adult catches by sticky traps.