Probabilistic diagnosis using a reformulation of the INTERNIST-1/QMR knowledge base. I. The probabilistic model and inference algorithms.

In Part I of this two-part series, we report the design of a probabilistic reformulation of the Quick Medical Reference (QMR) diagnostic decision-support tool. We describe a two-level multiply connected belief-network representation of the QMR knowledge base of internal medicine. In the belief-network representation of the QMR knowledge base, we use probabilities derived from the QMR disease profiles, from QMR imports of findings, and from National Center for Health Statistics hospital-discharge statistics. We use a stochastic simulation algorithm for inference on the belief network. This algorithm computes estimates of the posterior marginal probabilities of diseases given a set of findings. In Part II of the series, we compare the performance of QMR to that of our probabilistic system on cases abstracted from continuing medical education materials from Scientific American Medicine. In addition, we analyze empirically several components of the probabilistic model and simulation algorithm.

Probabilistic diagnosis using a reformulation of the INTERNIST-1/QMR knowledge base. II. Evaluation of diagnostic performance.

We have developed a probabilistic reformulation of the Quick Medical Reference (QMR) system. In Part I of this two-part series, we described a two-level, multiply connected belief-network representation of the QMR knowledge base and a simulation algorithm to perform probabilistic inference on the reformulated knowledge base. In Part II of this series, we report on an evaluation of the probabilistic QMR, in which we compare the performance of QMR to that of our probabilistic system on cases abstracted from continuing medical education materials from Scientific American Medicine. In addition, we analyze empirically several components of the probabilistic model and simulation algorithm.

Validating the knowledge base of a therapy planning system.

Validation of expert system knowledge bases has proved to be difficult. This paper presents a description of a system called ScriptGen that generates test data for validating the knowledge base of the ONCOCIN cancer therapy planning system. Because of the size and complexity of the ONCOCIN knowledge base, we require tools for automated validation. ScriptGen, which applies techniques developed in testing both traditional software and expert systems, uses a parallel model of the ONCOCIN knowledge base and its own inference engine to generate test cases. We derived the limits of the system from a study that seeded errors into an existing knowledge base.