One-stage parametric meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes.

Methodology for the meta-analysis of individual patient data with survival end-points is proposed. Motivated by questions about the reliance on hazard ratios as summary measures of treatment effects, a parametric approach is considered and percentile ratios are introduced as an alternative to hazard ratios. The generalized log-gamma model, which includes many common time-to-event distributions as special cases, is discussed in detail. Likelihood inference for percentile ratios is outlined. The proposed methodology is used for a meta-analysis of glioma data that was one of the studies which motivated this work. A simulation study exploring the validity of the proposed methodology is available electronically.

Autoantibodies and neuropsychiatric events at the time of systemic lupus erythematosus diagnosis: results from an international inception cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine, in an inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients, the association between neuropsychiatric (NP) events and anti-ribosomal P (anti-P), antiphospholipid (lupus anticoagulant [LAC], anticardiolipin), anti-beta2-glycoprotein I, and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor antibodies. METHODS: NP events were identified using the American College of Rheumatology case definitions and clustered into central/peripheral and diffuse/focal events. Attribution of NP events to SLE was determined using decision rules of differing stringency. Autoantibodies were measured without knowledge of NP events or their attribution. RESULTS: Four hundred twelve patients were studied (87.4% female; mean +/- SD age 34.9 +/- 13.5 years, mean +/- SD disease duration 5.0 +/- 4.2 months). There were 214 NP events in 133 patients (32.3%). The proportion of NP events attributed to SLE varied from 15% to 36%. There was no association between autoantibodies and NP events overall. However, the frequency of anti-P antibodies in patients with central NP events attributed to SLE was 4 of 20 (20%), versus 3 of 107 (2.8%) in patients with other NP events and 24 of 279 (8.6%) in those with no NP events (P = 0.04). Among patients with diffuse NP events, 3 of 11 had anti-P antibodies (27%), compared with 4 of 111 patients with other NP events (3.6%) and 24 of 279 of those with no NP events (8.6%) (P = 0.02). Specific clinical-serologic associations were found between anti-P and psychosis attributed to SLE (P = 0.02) and between LAC and cerebrovascular disease attributed to SLE (P = 0.038). There was no significant association between other autoantibodies and NP events. CONCLUSION: Clinically distinct NP events attributed to SLE and occurring around the time of diagnosis were found to be associated with anti-P antibodies and LAC. This suggests that there are different autoimmune pathogenetic mechanisms, although low sensitivity limits the clinical application of testing for these antibodies.

KIRs and autoimmune disease: studies in systemic lupus erythematosus and scleroderma.

We investigated killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) and the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-C ligands for the corresponding inhibitory KIRs in Caucasian patients, 304 with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and 90 with scleroderma [or progressive systemic sclerosis (PSS)] compared with 416 Caucasian controls. Compared with controls, KIR2DS1 in the absence of KIR2DS2 was increased in both SLE (P= 0.04) and PSS (P= 0.02). Only 42% of KIR2DS1-positive PSS patients had the appropriate HLA-C ligand for the corresponding inhibitory KIR compared with 61% of KIR2DS1 positive controls (P= 0.02). In the PSS group the presence of at least either activating KIR2DS1 and/or 2DS2 was significantly increased in patients when compared with controls (P= 0.001). This suggests that KIR receptors play a role in susceptibility to both PSS and SLE.

A multi-state model for joint modelling of terminal and non-terminal events with application to Whitehall II.

Serious coronary heart disease (CHD) is a primary outcome in the Whitehall II study, a large epidemiological study of British civil servants. Both fatal (F) and non-fatal (NF) CHD events are of interest and while essentially complete information is available on F events, the observation of NF events is subject to potentially informative censoring. A multi-state model with an unobserved state is introduced for the joint modelling of F and NF events. Two model-based assumptions ensure identifiability of the model and a parameter is introduced to allow sensitivity analyses concerning the assumption linked to informative censoring. Weibull transition rates, which include dependence on explanatory variables, are used in the analysis of Whitehall II data with a particular focus on the relationship between civil service grade and CHD events.

Clinical and radiological damage in psoriatic arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Psoriatic arthritis may progress to joint damage. Joint damage may be assessed clinically, by identifying deformed, fused, or flail joints, or radiologically, by recording erosions, joint space narrowing, ankylosis, lysis, or surgery. The relation between clinical and radiological damage is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To study the ordering of clinical and radiological damage detection, and the clinical features associated with the type of damage detected first. METHODS: The University of Toronto psoriatic arthritis database was used to relate clinical and radiological damage in the hand joints in 655 patients followed prospectively between 1978 and 2003. Generalised estimating equations were used to fit logistic regression models to identify factors that predict classification of damage by radiographic assessment first. RESULTS: The majority of the joints were not informative, as they either had evidence of damage by both methods at entry, or remained undamaged. Of the remainder, 81% of the joints showed radiological damage first and 19% had clinical damage first. Development of radiological damage first was related to previous detection of swollen joints, and was inversely related to duration of arthritis. CONCLUSIONS: Radiological damage is often detected before clinical damage is observed. Clinical inflammation often precedes the detection of radiological damage.

TNFalpha polymorphisms and risk of psoriatic arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) is a cytokine of critical importance in psoriatic arthritis. OBJECTIVES: (1) To examine the association between TNFalpha promoter gene polymorphisms and psoriatic arthritis in two well characterised Canadian populations with the disease; (2) to carry out a meta-analysis of all TNFalpha association studies in white psoriatic arthritis populations. METHODS: DNA samples were genotyped for five TNF variants by time of flight mass spectrometry using the Sequenom platform. All five single nucleotide polymorphisms were in the 5' flanking region of TNFalpha gene at the following positions: -1031 (T-->C), -863 (C-->A), -857 (C-->T), -308 (G-->A), and -238 (G-->A). Primary analyses were based on logistic regression. Summary estimates of disease/genotype relations from several studies were derived from random effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: 237 psoriatic arthritis subjects and 103 controls from Newfoundland and 203 psoriatic arthritis subjects and 101 controls from Toronto were studied. A combined analysis of data from both populations, showed a significant association between disease status and the -238(A) variant (p=0.01). The meta-analysis estimate for the -238(A) TNFalpha variant in eight psoriatic arthritis populations was also significant (odds ratio=2.29 (95% confidence interval, 1.48 to 3.55)). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of TNFalpha variants in psoriatic arthritis populations shows that the -238 (A) variant is a significant risk factor for this disease.

Association of SEEK1 and psoriatic arthritis in two distinct Canadian populations.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between SNP +39604 in SEEK1 and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in two distinct Canadian populations. METHODS: 103 patients with PsA and 105 ethnically matched controls from Newfoundland and 202 patients with PsA and 100 controls from Ontario were studied. Patients and controls were genotyped for SNP +39604 of SEEK1 by time of flight mass spectrometry, using the Sequenom platform. Genomic DNA was amplified by the Dynal RELI SSO HLA-Cw* typing kit for HLA-C typing. RESULTS: The frequency of the minor SEEK1(T) allele in subjects with PsA and controls was 48.5% and 32.4%, respectively (odds ratio (OR) = 2.0; p = 0.017), in the Newfoundland population and 46.5% and 38.0%, respectively (OR = 1.4; p = 0.16), in the Ontario population. Although SEEK1 is associated with PsA, particularly in the Newfoundland population, multivariate analysis showed that SEEK1 does not seem to be a further susceptibility factor if the HLA-Cw*0602 status is already known. No association was noted between SEEK1(T) allele and onset of psoriasis, PsA, or arthritis pattern. CONCLUSION: SEEK1 is associated with PsA in the Newfoundland founder population. This association is probably due to linkage disequilibrium between SEEK1 and HLA-Cw*0602 in this population.

CARD15: a pleiotropic autoimmune gene that confers susceptibility to psoriatic arthritis.

A recent genomewide scan in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) revealed a susceptibility locus at 16q. This region overlaps CARD15, a susceptibility gene in Crohn disease. The possibility of a common susceptibility gene between PsA and Crohn disease is further supported by epidemiological studies that note an increased incidence of psoriasis in subjects with Crohn. We screened 187 patients with PsA and 136 healthy controls, all from Newfoundland, for the three common, independent sequence variants of CARD15 (R702W, leu1007fsinsC, and G908R), which were detected by polymerase chain reaction by use of allele-specific primers and visualized through gel electrophoresis. In total, 53/187 (28.3%) probands with PsA had at least one variant of the CARD15 gene, compared with 16/136 (11.8%) controls (odds ratio 2.97; 95% confidence interval 1.61-5.47; P=.0005). Allele frequencies of R702W, leu1007fsinsC, and G908R were 10.43%, 3.21%, and 1.61%, respectively, in patients with PsA, compared with 3.31%, 2.57%, and 0.37%, respectively, in the control patients. CARD15 conferred susceptibility to PsA independent of HLA-Cw*0602. Thus, CARD15 represents a pleiotropic autoimmune gene and is the first non-MHC gene to be associated with PsA.