ABSTRACT
To develop risk scoring models predicting long-term survival and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs), including myocardial infarction and stroke after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). All 4,821 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG at Lankenau between January 2005 and July 2021 were included. MACCE was defined as all-cause mortality + myocardial infarction + stroke. Variable selection for both outcomes was obtained using a double-selection logit least absolute shrinkage and selection operator with adaptive selection. Model performance was internally evaluated by calibration and accuracy using bootstrap cross-validation. Mortality and MACCEs were compared in patients split into 3 groups based on the predicted risk scores for all-cause mortality and MACCEs. An external validation of our database was performed with 665 patients from the University of Brescia, Italy. Preoperative risk predictors were found to be predictors for all-cause mortality and MACCEs. In addition, being of African-American ethnicity is a significant predictor for MACCEs after isolated CABG. The areas under the curve (AUCs), which measures the discrimination of the models, were 80.4%, 79.1%, 81.3%, and 79.2% for mortality at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years follow-up. The AUCs for MACCEs were 75%, 72.5%, 73.8%, and 72.7% at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years follow-up. For external validation, the AUCs for all-cause mortality and MACCEs at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years were 73.7%, 70.8%, 68.7%, and 72.2% and 72.3%, 68.2%, 65.6%, and 69.6%, respectively. The Advanced (AD) Coronary Risk Score for All-Cause Mortality and MACCE provide good discrimination of long-term mortality and MACCEs after isolated CABG. External validation observed a more AUCs greater than 70%.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: This study sought to identify periprocedural risk predictors that affect long-term prognosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). METHODS: All consecutive 4,871 patients undergoing isolated CABG between May 2005 and June 2021 were included. Patients with and without COPD were compared for baseline demographics and preoperative characteristics. A propensity-matched analysis was used to compare the 2 groups. The primary outcome was long-term incidence of all-cause death. RESULTS: After matching, 767 patients each were included in the COPD and non-COPD groups; mean age was 71.6 and 71.4 years (P = .7), respectively; 29.3% and 32% (P = .2) were women, respectively. Intraoperatively, median (IQR) operating room time was higher in the COPD group than in the non-COPD group (5.9 [5.2-7.0] hours vs 5.8 [5.1-6.7] hours, respectively; P = .01). Postoperatively, intensive care unit stay (P = .03), hospital length of stay (P = .0004), and fresh frozen plasma transfusion units (P = .012) were higher in the COPD group than in the non-COPD group. Thirty-day mortality was not different between groups (1.3% in the COPD group vs 1% in the non-COPD group; P = .4). Median follow-up time was 4.0 years. The rate of all-cause death was higher in the COPD group than in the non-COPD group (138 patients [18.3%] vs 109 patients [14.5%], respectively; P = .042). Periprocedural risk predictors for all-cause death in patients with COPD were atrial fibrillation, diabetes, male sex, dialysis, ejection fraction less than 50%, peripheral vascular disease, and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score greater than 4%. CONCLUSION: Patients with COPD undergoing isolated CABG had a significantly higher incidence of all-cause death than those without COPD. Herein, risk predictors are provided for all-cause death in patients undergoing isolated CABG.
