A Statewide EMS Viral Syndrome Pandemic Triage Protocol: 24 Hour Outcomes.

Background: Early during the COVID-19 pandemic, Emergency Medical Services (EMS) systems encountered many challenges that prompted crisis-level strategies. Maryland's statewide EMS system implemented the Viral Syndrome Pandemic Triage Protocol which contained a decision tool to help identify patients potentially safe for self-care at home. Objectives: This study assessed the effects of the Maryland Viral Syndrome Pandemic Triage Protocol and the safety of referring patients for self-care at home. Methods: This is a retrospective statewide analysis of EMS patients from March 19 thru September 4, 2020, who were not transported and had documentation of the Viral Syndrome Pandemic Triage Protocol's decision support tool completed, as well as a random sample of 150 patients who were not transported and did not have documentation of the decision tool. Descriptive statistics were performed as well as a two-stage multivariable logistic regression model for the outcomes of ED presentation within 24 hours and subsequent hospitalization. Results: 301 EMS patients were documented as triaged to home using the protocol and outcomes data were available for 282 (94%). 41(14.5%) patients presented to an ED within 24 hours and 14 (5% of 282) required inpatient hospitalization. Nine (3.2%) patients were subsequently hospitalized with a diagnosis of COVID-19 illness. Of those patients for whom the decision tool was not documented, 35 (23%) had an ED visit within 24 hours and 15 (10%) were hospitalized (p = 0.075). Multivariate logistic regression model results (N = 432) suggest that those with documentation of triage protocol use had some advantage over those patients without documentation. The 95% CIs of the estimated effect of Triage/No Triage protocol documented were wide and crossed the 1.0 limit but overall, all effects Odds Ratios and Adjust Odds Ratios were consistently over 1.0 with the lowest value of 1.3 and the highest value of 2.1. Conclusion: Most patients (95%) who were triaged to self-care at home with home documented decision support tool use did not require hospitalization within 24 hours following EMS encounter and this appears to be safe. Future opportunity exists to incorporate such tools into comprehensive pandemic preparedness strategies along with appropriate follow up and quality improvement mechanisms.

Correlation between Emergency Medical Services Suspected COVID-19 Patients and Daily Hospitalizations.

Objective: We sought to determine if Emergency Medical Services (EMS) identified Persons Under Investigation (PUI) for COVID-19 are associated with hospitalizations for COVID-19 disease for the purposes of serving as a potential early indicator of hospital surge. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from the Maryland statewide EMS electronic medical records and daily COVID-19 hospitalizations from March 13, 2020 through July 31, 2020. All unique EMS patients who were identified as COVID-19 PUIs during the study period were included. Descriptive analysis was performed. The Box-Jenkins approach was used to evaluate the relationship between EMS transports and daily new hospitalizations. Separate Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were constructed to transform the data into a series of independent, identically distributed random variables. Fit was measured using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The Box-Ljung white noise test was utilized to ensure there was no autocorrelation in the residuals. Results: EMS units in Maryland identified a total of 26,855 COVID-19 PUIs during the 141-day study period. The median patient age was 62 years old, and 19,111 (71.3%) were 50 years and older. 6,886 (25.6%) patients had an abnormal initial pulse oximetry (<92%). A strong degree of correlation was observed between EMS PUI transports and new hospitalizations. The correlation was strongest and significant at a 9-day lag from time of EMS PUI transports to new COVID-19 hospitalizations, with a cross correlation coefficient of 0.26 (p < .01). Conclusions: A strong correlation between EMS PUIs and COVID-19 hospitalizations was noted in this state-wide analysis. These findings demonstrate the potential value of incorporating EMS clinical information into the development of a robust syndromic surveillance system for COVID-19. This correlation has important utility in the development of predictive tools and models that seek to provide indicators of an impending surge on the healthcare system at large.