ABSTRACT
During the last years, in the sub-basin of the Chicú river, the agricultural and cattle exploitation has intensified and has depleted the water resources, thereby causing a deficit that has limited the continuity of such agricultural activity. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify land use and land cover changes contribute to the hydrological response to achieve sustainable management of the water resources in the sub-basin. In this sense, an integrated approach was used, which includes the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model and the different LUCC (Land use and cover change) maps obtained through tele-detection by using Landsat images to decide the hydrological response in the basin with the changes in land cover and uses in 1997, 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016. As a result of the SWAT modeling, it can be noticed that the surface run-off varies according to the type of cover and extension, increasing or decreasing the water flow according to the characteristics of each cover, as in the case of bare lands (AGRL). While in 2006 it represented an area of 7.32% with a run-off of 39.25 mm, in 2001 its area decreased to 5.66% with a run-off of 44.9 mm. Moreover, in 1997 a flow of 4.45 m 3 / s can be observed, whereas in 2001 it decreases by 15% in the main current, which can be justified by a decrease of 8.8% in dense (FRSD) and fragmented (FRDT) forests. For 2006 and 2011 scenarios, the flow increases 13% and 50%, respectively, which corresponds to an increase of 36% and 48% concerning 2001 in clean grasses (PAST); despite the increase in clean grasses (PAST), the surface run-off was maintained almost constant above 9 mm, and it is thus considered a more stable vegetation cover.
ABSTRACT
Thousands of deaths associated with air pollution each year could be prevented by forecasting the behavior of factors that pose risks to people's health and their geographical distribution. Proximity to pollution sources, degree of urbanization, and population density are some of the factors whose spatial distribution enables the identification of possible influence on the presence of respiratory diseases (RD). Currently, Bogotá is among the cities with the poorest air quality in Latin America. Specifically, the locality of Kennedy is one of the zones in the city with the highest recorded concentration levels of local pollutants over the last 10 years. From 2009 to 2016, there were 8619 deaths associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in the locality. Given these characteristics, this study set out to identify and analyze the areas in which the primary socioeconomic and environmental conditions contribute to the presence of symptoms associated with RD. To this end, information collected in field by performing georeferenced surveys was analyzed through geostatistical and machine learning tools which carried out cluster and pattern analyses. Random forests and AdaBoost were applied to establish hot spots where RD could occur, given the conjugation of predictor variables in the micro-territory. It was found that random forests outperformed AdaBoost with 0.63 AUC. In particular, this study's approach applies to densely populated municipalities with high levels of air pollution. In using these tools, municipalities can anticipate environmental health situations and reduce the cost of respiratory disease treatments.
Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , Environmental Pollutants , Respiratory Tract Diseases , Air Pollutants/analysis , Air Pollution/adverse effects , Air Pollution/analysis , Cities/epidemiology , Colombia/epidemiology , Environmental Monitoring , Humans , Incidence , Particulate Matter/analysis , Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO) points out that 3 million deaths per year caused by cardiopulmonary diseases are related to exposure to air pollution. Objective: To estimate areas of concentration of PM2.5 in Bogotá according to the WHO Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) for cardiopulmonary diseases during the period 2014-2015. Materials and methods: We conducted an ecological study with geostatistical techniques. We calculated the PM2.5 averages for six hour-periods distributed throughout the day in four time slots, which were classified according to daily and annual WHO AQG. Results: The locality of Kennedy presented the highest concentrations of PM2.5 in all time slots. The values registered in this area classified within the daily and annual AQG showed that the locality would present an increase of 1.2% and 9% in cardiopulmonary mortality in the short and long term, respectively. Conclusion: The time slots from 0:00 to 6:00 h y from 12:00 to 18:00 h met the annual AQG value of 10 µg/m3 in a part of the eastern zone of the city; in the rest of the city, in these same time slots, intermediate objectives 2 and 3 were met, which means increases by 9% and 3% in the cardiopulmonary mortality according to the AQG, respectively.
Introducción. La Organización Mundial de la Salud señala que tres millones de muertes al año por enfermedades cardiopulmonares están relacionadas con la exposición a la contaminación del aire. Objetivo. Estimar las superficies de concentración de partículas en suspensión de menos de 2,5 µm (Particulate Matter, PM2,5) en Bogotá entre el 2014 y el 2015, clasificándolas según las guías de calidad del aire de la Organización Mundial de la Salud para enfermedades cardiopulmonares. Materiales y métodos. Se hizo un estudio ecológico mediante técnicas geoestadísticas. Se calcularon los promedios de PM2,5 en lapsos de seis horas a lo largo del día en cuatro franjas horarias. Las concentraciones se clasificaron según los valores diarios y anuales de las guías de calidad del aire de la OMS. Resultados. La localidad de Kennedy presentó las mayores concentraciones de PM2,5 en todas las franjas horarias. Los valores registrados en esta zona y clasificados según las guías diarias y anuales de calidad del aire, evidenciaron que la localidad presentaría un incremento de 1,2 % en la mortalidad cardiopulmonar en el corto plazo y de 9 % en el largo plazo. Conclusión. Las franjas horarias de las 0:00 a las 6:00 h y de las 12:00 a las 18:00 h, cumplieron con el valor anual de las guías de calidad del aire de 10 µg/m3 en una parte de la zona oriental de la ciudad. En el resto de la ciudad, en las franjas horarias de las 6:00 h a las 12:00 h y de las 18:00 h a las 24:00 h se registraron valores que cumplían los objetivos intermedios 2 y 3, lo que representa incrementos de 9 y 3 % en la mortalidad cardiopulmonar, respectivamente.
Subject(s)
Air Pollution , Particulate Matter/analysis , Urban Health , Cities , Colombia , Guidelines as Topic , Heart Diseases/etiology , Heart Diseases/mortality , Humans , Meteorological Concepts , Particle Size , Particulate Matter/adverse effects , Respiration Disorders/etiology , Respiration Disorders/mortality , Risk , World Health OrganizationABSTRACT
Introducción. La Organización Mundial de la Salud señala que tres millones de muertes al año por enfermedades cardiopulmonares están relacionadas con la exposición a la contaminación del aire. Objetivo. Estimar las superficies de concentración de partículas en suspensión de menos de 2,5 pm (Particulate Matter, PM25) en Bogotá entre el 2014 y el 2015, clasificándolas según las guías de calidad del aire de la Organización Mundial de la Salud para enfermedades cardiopulmonares. Materiales y métodos. Se hizo un estudio ecológico mediante técnicas geoestadísticas. Se calcularon los promedios de PM25 en lapsos de seis horas a lo largo del día en cuatro franjas horarias. Las concentraciones se clasificaron según los valores diarios y anuales de las guías de calidad del aire de la OMS. Resultados. La localidad de Kennedy presentó las mayores concentraciones de PM25 en todas las franjas horarias. Los valores registrados en esta zona y clasificados según las guías diarias y anuales de calidad del aire, evidenciaron que la localidad presentaría un incremento de 1,2 % en la mortalidad cardiopulmonar en el corto plazo y de 9 % en el largo plazo. Conclusión. Las franjas horarias de las 0:00 a las 6:00 h y de las 12:00 a las 18:00 h, cumplieron con el valor anual de las guías de calidad del aire de 10 µg/m3 en una parte de la zona oriental de la ciudad. En el resto de la ciudad, en las franjas horarias de las 6:00 h a las 12:00 h y de las 18:00 h a las 24:00 h se registraron valores que cumplían los objetivos intermedios 2 y 3, lo que representa incrementos de 9 y 3 % en la mortalidad cardiopulmonar, respectivamente.
Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO) points out that 3 million deaths per year caused by cardiopulmonary diseases are related to exposure to air pollution. Objective: To estimate areas of concentration of PM2.5 in Bogotá according to the WHO Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) for cardiopulmonary diseases during the period 2014-2015. Materials and methods: We conducted an ecological study with geostatistical techniques. We calculated the PM2.5 averages for six hour-periods distributed throughout the day in four time slots, which were classified according to daily and annual WHO AQG. Results: The locality of Kennedy presented the highest concentrations of PM25 in all time slots. The values registered in this area classified within the daily and annual AQG showed that the locality would present an increase of 1.2% and 9% in cardiopulmonary mortality in the short and long term, respectively. Conclusion: The time slots from 0:00 to 6:00 h y from 12:00 to 18:00 h met the annual AQG value of 10 µg/m3 in a part of the eastern zone of the city; in the rest of the city, in these same time slots, intermediate objectives 2 and 3 were met, which means increases by 9% and 3% in the cardiopulmonary mortality according to the AQG, respectively.
