Derivation and validation of the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) group revised and validated the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) classification criteria in order to improve clinical relevance, meet stringent methodology requirements, and incorporate new knowledge regarding the immunology of SLE. METHODS: The classification criteria were derived from a set of 702 expert-rated patient scenarios. Recursive partitioning was used to derive an initial rule that was simplified and refined based on SLICC physician consensus. The SLICC group validated the classification criteria in a new validation sample of 690 new expert-rated patient scenarios. RESULTS: Seventeen criteria were identified. In the derivation set, the SLICC classification criteria resulted in fewer misclassifications compared with the current ACR classification criteria (49 versus 70; P = 0.0082) and had greater sensitivity (94% versus 86%; P < 0.0001) and equal specificity (92% versus 93%; P = 0.39). In the validation set, the SLICC classification criteria resulted in fewer misclassifications compared with the current ACR classification criteria (62 versus 74; P = 0.24) and had greater sensitivity (97% versus 83%; P < 0.0001) but lower specificity (84% versus 96%; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The new SLICC classification criteria performed well in a large set of patient scenarios rated by experts. According to the SLICC rule for the classification of SLE, the patient must satisfy at least 4 criteria, including at least one clinical criterion and one immunologic criterion OR the patient must have biopsy-proven lupus nephritis in the presence of antinuclear antibodies or anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies.

Combined oral contraceptives in women with systemic lupus erythematosus.

BACKGROUND: Oral contraceptives are rarely prescribed for women with systemic lupus erythematosus, because of concern about potential negative side effects. In this double-blind, randomized, noninferiority trial, we prospectively evaluated the effect of oral contraceptives on lupus activity in premenopausal women with systemic lupus erythematosus. METHODS: A total of 183 women with inactive (76 percent) or stable active (24 percent) systemic lupus erythematosus at 15 U.S. sites were randomly assigned to receive either oral contraceptives (triphasic ethinyl estradiol at a dose of 35 microg plus norethindrone at a dose of 0.5 to 1 mg for 12 cycles of 28 days each; 91 women) or placebo (92 women) and were evaluated at months 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, and 12. Subjects were excluded if they had moderate or high levels of anticardiolipin antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, or a history of thrombosis. RESULTS: The primary end point, a severe lupus flare, occurred in 7 of 91 subjects receiving oral contraceptives (7.7 percent) as compared with 7 of 92 subjects receiving placebo (7.6 percent). The 12-month rates of severe flare were similar: 0.084 for the group receiving oral contraceptives and 0.087 for the placebo group (P=0.95; upper limit of the one-sided 95 percent confidence interval for this difference, 0.069, which is within the prespecified 9 percent margin for noninferiority). Rates of mild or moderate flares were 1.40 flares per person-year for subjects receiving oral contraceptives and 1.44 flares per person-year for subjects receiving placebo (relative risk, 0.98; P=0.86). In the group that was randomized to receive oral contraceptives, there was one deep venous thrombosis and one clotted graft; in the placebo group, there was one deep venous thrombosis, one ocular thrombosis, one superficial thrombophlebitis, and one death (after cessation of the trial). CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that oral contraceptives do not increase the risk of flare among women with systemic lupus erythematosus whose disease is stable.

The effect of combined estrogen and progesterone hormone replacement therapy on disease activity in systemic lupus erythematosus: a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: There is concern that exogenous female hormones may worsen disease activity in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on disease activity in postmenopausal women with SLE. DESIGN: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled noninferiority trial conducted from March 1996 to June 2002. SETTING: 16 university-affiliated rheumatology clinics or practices in 11 U.S. states. PATIENTS: 351 menopausal patients (mean age, 50 years) with inactive (81.5%) or stable-active (18.5%) SLE. INTERVENTIONS: 12 months of treatment with active drug (0.625 mg of conjugated estrogen daily, plus 5 mg of medroxyprogesterone for 12 days per month) or placebo. The 12-month follow-up rate was 82% for the HRT group and 87% for the placebo group. MEASUREMENTS: The primary end point was occurrence of a severe flare as defined by Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus, National Assessment-Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index composite. RESULTS: Severe flare was rare in both treatment groups: The 12-month severe flare rate was 0.081 for the HRT group and 0.049 for the placebo group, yielding an estimated difference of 0.033 (P = 0.23). The upper limit of the 1-sided 95% CI for the treatment difference was 0.078, within the prespecified margin of 9% for noninferiority. Mild to moderate flares were significantly increased in the HRT group: 1.14 flares/person-year for HRT and 0.86 flare/person-year for placebo (relative risk, 1.34; P = 0.01). The probability of any type of flare by 12 months was 0.64 for the HRT group and 0.51 for the placebo group (P = 0.01). In the HRT group, there were 1 death, 1 stroke, 2 cases of deep venous thrombosis, and 1 case of thrombosis in an arteriovenous graft; in the placebo group, 1 patient developed deep venous thrombosis. LIMITATIONS: Findings are not generalizable to women with high-titer anticardiolipin antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, or previous thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS: Adding a short course of HRT is associated with a small risk for increasing the natural flare rate of lupus. Most of these flares are mild to moderate. The benefits of HRT can be balanced against the risk for flare because HRT did not significantly increase the risk for severe flare compared with placebo.