ABSTRACT
Studies have provided empirical evidence on the prognostic relevance of test batteries and the "coach's eye" for talent identification. The aims were 1) to compare objective and subjective assessments as well as a combined soccer-specific potential index between future selected and non-selected players and 2) to evaluate the prognostic validity of a multidimensional model as a tool for talent identification in soccer. The sample was composed by 132 male players (14,5 ± 1,4 years; regional competitive level) from U13 to U17 age groups of a Brazilian soccer talent development program. Athletes completed a multidimensional test battery and were subjectively rated by their coaches for sporting potential. Players' success was evaluated five years later and was operationalized by achieving under-20 category of the Brazilian Championship or adult professional level (success rate, 15.9%). Confirming univariate prognostic validity, future selected outperformed non-selected players regarding 20-m sprint (p = .009), agility (p = .04), countermovement jump (p = .04), sit-and-reach (p = .001), Yo-Yo IR1 (p = .001), dribbling (p < .001), perceived competence (p = .007), peaking under pressure (p = .01), confidence/motivation (p = .03), coping skills (p = .03), intangibles (p < .001) and player potential (p < .001). A combined index (objective tests, athlete's assessments and coach's eye) named Gold Score Soccer (GSS) showed high prognostic validity (p < .001). A binary logistic regression estimated the probability of success (yes/not) with GSS, ambidextrous and predicted age at peak height velocity as predictors. This multidimensional model named GoldFit Soccer showed high prognostic validity (sensitivity = 85.7%; specificity = 83.8%; accuracy = 84.1%; area under the ROC curve = .93 [.87-.98]). Thus, GoldFit Soccer is a valid multidimensional scientific model for talent identification in soccer.
