Errors in aerial survey count data: Identifying pitfalls and solutions.

Accurate estimates of animal abundance are essential for guiding effective management, and poor survey data can produce misleading inferences. Aerial surveys are an efficient survey platform, capable of collecting wildlife data across large spatial extents in short timeframes. However, these surveys can yield unreliable data if not carefully executed. Despite a long history of aerial survey use in ecological research, problems common to aerial surveys have not yet been adequately resolved. Through an extensive review of the aerial survey literature over the last 50 years, we evaluated how common problems encountered in the data (including nondetection, counting error, and species misidentification) can manifest, the potential difficulties conferred, and the history of how these challenges have been addressed. Additionally, we used a double-observer case study focused on waterbird data collected via aerial surveys and an online group (flock) counting quiz to explore the potential extent of each challenge and possible resolutions. We found that nearly three quarters of the aerial survey methodology literature focused on accounting for nondetection errors, while issues of counting error and misidentification were less commonly addressed. Through our case study, we demonstrated how these challenges can prove problematic by detailing the extent and magnitude of potential errors. Using our online quiz, we showed that aerial observers typically undercount group size and that the magnitude of counting errors increases with group size. Our results illustrate how each issue can act to bias inferences, highlighting the importance of considering individual methods for mitigating potential problems separately during survey design and analysis. We synthesized the information gained from our analyses to evaluate strategies for overcoming the challenges of using aerial survey data to estimate wildlife abundance, such as digital data collection methods, pooling species records by family, and ordinal modeling using binned data. Recognizing conditions that can lead to data collection errors and having reasonable solutions for addressing errors can allow researchers to allocate resources effectively to mitigate the most significant challenges for obtaining reliable aerial survey data.

Black Scoter habitat use along the southeastern coast of the United States.

While the Atlantic Coast of the United States and Canada is a major wintering area for sea ducks, knowledge about their wintering habitat use is relatively limited. Black Scoters have a broad wintering distribution and are the only open water species of sea duck that is abundant along the southeastern coast of the United States. Our study identified variables that affected Black Scoter (Melanitta americana) distribution and abundance in the Atlantic Ocean along the southeastern coast of the United States. We used aerial survey data from 2009 to 2012 provided by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service to identify variables that influenced Black Scoter distribution. We used indicator variable selection to evaluate relationships between Black Scoter habitat use and a variety of broad- and fine-scale oceanographic and weather variables. Average time between waves, ocean floor slope, and the interaction of bathymetry and distance to shore had the strongest association with southeastern Black Scoter distribution.

A road map for designing and implementing a biological monitoring program.

Designing and implementing natural resource monitoring is a challenging endeavor undertaken by many agencies, NGOs, and citizen groups worldwide. Yet many monitoring programs fail to deliver useful information for a variety of administrative (staffing, documentation, and funding) or technical (sampling design and data analysis) reasons. Programs risk failure if they lack a clear motivating problem or question, explicit objectives linked to this problem or question, and a comprehensive conceptual model of the system under study. Designers must consider what "success" looks like from a resource management perspective, how desired outcomes translate to appropriate attributes to monitor, and how they will be measured. All such efforts should be filtered through the question "Why is this important?" Failing to address these considerations will produce a program that fails to deliver the desired information. We addressed these issues through creation of a "road map" for designing and implementing a monitoring program, synthesizing multiple aspects of a monitoring program into a single, overarching framework. The road map emphasizes linkages among core decisions to ensure alignment of all components, from problem framing through technical details of data collection and analysis, to program administration. Following this framework will help avoid common pitfalls, keep projects on track and budgets realistic, and aid in program evaluations. The road map has proved useful for monitoring by individuals and teams, those planning new monitoring, and those reviewing existing monitoring and for staff with a wide range of technical and scientific skills.

Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics.

Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate change on seabirds.

Social cues facilitate habitat selection: American redstarts establish breeding territories in response to song.

For migratory songbirds nesting in northern temperate forests, a short breeding season demands that males rapidly establish territories. Because critical insect and vegetation resources are unavailable during spring arrival, we suggest that conspecifics serve as settlement cues for males new to a local population. To test conspecific attraction, we conducted playback experiments with American redstarts Setophaga ruticilla. Experimental results demonstrate that song playbacks strongly attract conspecifics, recruiting an average of 4.2 additional males per plot; adult males new to our sites increased, while yearling males failed to respond. Yearlings arrived 6 to 10 days later than adults, raising the possibility that yearlings responded to songs of early arriving adults rather than to playbacks. Our work indicates that conspecific attraction is an important mechanism for breeding habitat selection in an established population of a migratory forest songbird, but the effect is moderated by age, reproductive experience and arrival timing.

Testing a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of waterfowl aggregations.

We consider a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of mixed-species waterfowl aggregations and describe two methods for assessing the fit of this model to field data. The model does not incorporate species-specific behavior. It assumes that all birds act independently and incorrectly predicts an exponential distribution for inter-event times. We reject this model, show that 29% of the birds move in groups of two or more birds, and demonstrate that the distribution of inter-event times between the movements of groups of birds is exponential. We find no difference in movement rates or group sizes between seasons, and no difference between groups arriving into or departing from the observed aggregations. An analysis of group composition suggests that species at low abundance behave differently than species at high abundance: birds with few conspecifics are more likely to move in mixed-species groups than birds with many conspecifics. We suggest that simple stochastic models provide a useful way to explore the dynamics of animal behavior.