Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska's Beaufort Sea, 2001-2016.

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark-recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Identifying reliable indicators of fitness in polar bears.

Animal structural body size and condition are often measured to evaluate individual health, identify responses to environmental change and food availability, and relate food availability to effects on reproduction and survival. A variety of condition metrics have been developed but relationships between these metrics and vital rates are rarely validated. Identifying an optimal approach to estimate the body condition of polar bears is needed to improve monitoring of their response to decline in sea ice habitat. Therefore, we examined relationships between several commonly used condition indices (CI), body mass, and size with female reproductive success and cub survival among polar bears (Ursus maritimus) measured in two subpopulations over three decades. To improve measurement and application of morphometrics and CIs, we also examined whether CIs are independent of age and structural size-an important assumption for monitoring temporal trends-and factors affecting measurement precision and accuracy. Maternal CIs and mass measured the fall prior to denning were related to cub production. Similarly, maternal CIs, mass, and length were related to the mass of cubs or yearlings that accompanied her. However, maternal body mass, but not CIs, measured in the spring was related to cub production and only maternal mass and length were related to the probability of cub survival. These results suggest that CIs may not be better indicators of fitness than body mass in part because CIs remove variation associated with body size that is important in affecting fitness. Further, CIs exhibited variable relationships with age for growing bears and were lower for longer bears despite body length being related to cub survival and female reproductive success. These results are consistent with findings from other species indicating that body mass is a useful metric to link environmental conditions and population dynamics.

Development of a murre (Uria spp.) egg control material.

The Seabird Tissue Archival and Monitoring Project (STAMP) is a collaborative Alaska-wide effort by the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge (USFWS/AMNWR), the US Geological Survey's Biological Resources Division (USGS/BRD), the Bureau of Indian Affairs Alaska Region Subsistence Branch (BIA/ARSB), and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to monitor long-term (decadal) trends in environmental contaminants using seabird eggs. To support this effort, a matrix- (seabird egg) and concentration-specific control material was needed to ensure quality during analytical work. Although a herring gull egg quality assurance (HGQA) material is available from Environment Canada (EC), contaminant concentrations in this material tended to be higher than those observed in Alaskan murre (Uria spp.) eggs. Therefore, to prepare a more appropriate control material, a total of 12 common murre (U. aalge) and thick-billed murre (U. lomvia) eggs from four Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska nesting locations were cryohomogenized to create 190 aliquots each containing approximately 6 g. This new control material was analyzed by different methods at NIST and EC facilities for the determination of concentrations and value assignment of 63 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners, 20 organochlorine pesticides, and 11 polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) congeners. The total PCB concentration is approximately 58 ng g(-1) wet mass. Results obtained for analytes not listed on the certificates of analysis of the previously used control materials, HGQA and NIST's Standard Reference Material (SRM) 1946 Lake Superior Fish Tissue, are also presented.

Murre eggs (Uria aalge and Uria lomvia) as indicators of mercury contamination in the Alaskan marine environment.

Sixty common murre (Uria aalge) and 27 thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) eggs collected by the Seabird Tissue Archival and Monitoring Project (STAMP) in 1999-2001 from two Gulf of Alaska and three Bering Sea nesting colonies were analyzed for total mercury (Hg) using isotope dilution cold vapor inductively coupled mass spectrometry. Hg concentrations (wet mass) ranged from 0.011 microg/g to 0.357 microg/g (relative standard deviation = 76%), while conspecifics from the same colonies and years had an average relative standard deviation of 33%. Hg levels in eggs from the Gulf of Alaska (0.166 microg/g +/- 0.011 microg/g) were significantly higher (p < 0.0001) than in the Bering Sea (0.047 microg/g +/- 0.004 microg/g). Within the Bering Sea, Hg was significantly higher (p = 0.0007) in eggs from Little Diomede Island near the arctic than at the two more southern colonies. Although thick-billed and common murres are ecologicallysimilar,there were significant species differences in egg Hg concentrations within each region (p < 0.0001). In the Bering Sea, eggs from thick-billed murres had higher Hg concentrations than eggs from common murres, while in the Gulf of Alaska, common murre eggs had higher concentrations than those of thick-billed murres. A separate one-way analysis of variance on the only time-trend data currently available for a colony (St. Lazaria Island in the Gulf of Alaska) found significantly lower Hg concentrations in common murre eggs collected in 2001 compared to 1999 (p = 0.017). Results from this study indicate that murre eggs may be effective monitoring units for detecting geographic, species, and temporal patterns of Hg contamination in marine food webs. The relatively small intracolony variation in egg Hg levels and the ability to consistently obtain adequate sample sizes both within and among colonies over a large geographic range means that monitoring efforts using murre eggs will have suitable statistical power for detecting environmental patterns of Hg contamination. The potential influences of trophic effects, physical transport patterns, and biogeochemical processes on these monitoring efforts are discussed, and future plans to investigate the sources of the observed variability are presented.

Persistent organic pollutants in Alaskan murre (Uria spp.) eggs: geographical, species, and temporal comparisons.

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in eggs of common and thick-billed murres (Uria aalge and U. lomvia) from five Alaskan nesting colonies were dominated by 4,4'-DDE, total polychlorinated biphenyls (totalPCBs; 46 congeners comprised mainly of PCB congeners 153, 118, 138, 99, and 151), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), beta-hexachlorocyclohexane (beta-HCH), and chlordane compounds (totalCHL). Concentrations of 4,4'-DDE, cis-nonachlor, and heptachlor epoxide were lower than those reported for some of the same colonies in the 1970s, while HCB concentrations were similar. In general, significantly higher concentrations were found in eggs from Gulf of Alaska colonies compared to those from Bering Sea colonies except for HCB (higher in the Bering Sea) and beta-HCH (no significant difference between the two regions). Thick-billed murre eggs contained higher concentrations of 4,4'-DDE and totalPCBs, whereas common murre eggs had higher HCB concentrations. Possible factors contributing to the POPs patterns found in eggs from these murre colonies are discussed.