Morphological rates of angiosperm seed size evolution.

The evolution of seed size among angiosperms reflects their ecological diversification in a complex fitness landscape of life-history strategies. The lineages that have evolved seeds beyond the upper and lower boundaries that defined nonflowering seed plants since the Paleozoic are more dispersed across the angiosperm phylogeny than would be expected under a neutral model of phenotypic evolution. Morphological rates of seed size evolution estimated for 40 clades based on 17,375 species ranged from 0.001 (Garryales) to 0.207 (Malvales). Comparative phylogenetic analysis indicated that morphological rates are not associated with the clade's seed size but are negatively correlated with the clade's position in the overall distribution of angiosperm seed sizes; clades with seed sizes closer to the angiosperm mean had significantly higher morphological rates than clades with extremely small or extremely large seeds. Likewise, per-clade taxonomic diversification rates are not associated with the seed size of the clade but with where the clade falls within the angiosperm seed size distribution. These results suggest that evolutionary rates (morphological and taxonomic) are elevated in densely occupied regions of the seed morphospace relative to lineages whose ecophenotypic innovations have moved them toward the edges.

The evolutionary diversification of seed size: using the past to understand the present.

The Devonian origin of seed plants and subsequent morphological diversification of seeds during the late Paleozoic represents an adaptive radiation into unoccupied ecological niche space. A plant's seed size is correlated with its life-history strategy, growth form, and seed dispersal syndrome. The fossil record indicates that the oldest seed plants had relatively small seeds, but the Mississippian seed size envelope increased significantly with the diversification of larger seeded lineages. Fossil seeds equivalent to the largest extant gymnosperm seeds appeared by the Pennsylvanian, concurrent with morphological diversification of growth forms and dispersal syndromes as well as the clade's radiation into new environments. Wang's Analysis of Skewness indicates that the evolutionary trend of increasing seed size resulted from primarily passive processes in Pennsylvanian seed plants. The distributions of modern angiosperms indicate a more diverse system of active and some passive processes, unbounded by Paleozoic limits; multiple angiosperm lineages independently evolved though the upper and lower bounds. Quantitative measures of preservation suggest that, although our knowledge of Paleozoic seeds is far from complete, the evolutionary trend in seed size is unlikely to be an artifact of taphonomy.

A likelihood-based method for testing for nonstochastic variation of diversification rates in phylogenies.

Observed variations in rates of taxonomic diversification have been attributed to a range of factors including biological innovations, ecosystem restructuring, and environmental changes. Before inferring causality of any particular factor, however, it is critical to demonstrate that the observed variation in diversity is significantly greater than that expected from natural stochastic processes. Relative tests that assess whether observed asymmetry in species richness between sister taxa in monophyletic pairs is greater than would be expected under a symmetric model have been used widely in studies of rate heterogeneity and are particularly useful for groups in which paleontological data are problematic. Although one such test introduced by Slowinski and Guyer a decade ago has been applied to a wide range of clades and evolutionary questions, the statistical behavior of the test has not been examined extensively, particularly when used with Fisher's procedure for combining probabilities to analyze data from multiple independent taxon pairs. Here, certain pragmatic difficulties with the Slowinski-Guyer test are described, further details of the development of a recently introduced likelihood-based relative rates test are presented, and standard simulation procedures are used to assess the behavior of the two tests in a range of situations to determine: (1) the accuracy of the tests' nominal Type I error rate; (2) the statistical power of the tests; (3) the sensitivity of the tests to inclusion of taxon pairs with few species; (4) the behavior of the tests with datasets comprised of few taxon pairs; and (5) the sensitivity of the tests to certain violations of the null model assumptions. Our results indicate that in most biologically plausible scenarios, the likelihood-based test has superior statistical properties in terms of both Type I error rate and power, and we found no scenario in which the Slowinski-Guyer test was distinctly superior, although the degree of the discrepancy varies among the different scenarios. The Slowinski-Guyer test tends to be much more conservative (i.e., very disinclined to reject the null hypothesis) in datasets with many small pairs. In most situations, the performance of both the likelihood-based test and particularly the Slowinski-Guyer test improve when pairs with few species are excluded from the computation, although this is balanced against a decline in the tests' power and accuracy as fewer pairs are included in the dataset. The performance of both tests is quite poor when they are applied to datasets in which the taxon sizes do not conform to the distribution implied by the usual null model. Thus, results of analyses of taxonomic rate heterogeneity using the Slowinski-Guyer test can be misleading because the test's ability to reject the null hypothesis (equal rates) when true is often inaccurate and its ability to reject the null hypothesis when the alternative (unequal rates) is true is poor, particularly when small taxon pairs are included. Although not always perfect, the likelihood-based test provides a more accurate and powerful alternative as a relative rates test.

Nonstochastic variation of species-level diversification rates within angiosperms.

Variations in the origination and extinction rates of species over geological time often are linked with a range of factors, including the evolution of key innovations, changes in ecosystem structure, and environmental factors such as shifts in climate and physical geography. Before hypothesizing causality of a single factor, it is critical to demonstrate that the observed variation in diversification is significantly greater than one would expect due to natural stochasticity in the evolutionary branching process. Here, we use a likelihood-ratio test to compare taxonomic rate heterogeneity to a neutral birth-death model, using data on well-supported sister pairs of taxa and their species richness. We test the likelihood that the distribution of extant species among angiosperm genera and families could be the result of constant diversification rates. Results strongly support the conclusion that there is significantly more heterogeneity in diversity at the species level within angiosperms than would be expected due to stochastic processes. This result is consistent in datasets of genus pairs and family pairs and is not affected significantly by degrading pairs to simulate inaccuracy in the assumption of simultaneous origin of sister taxa. When we parse taxon pairs among higher groups of angiosperms, results indicate that a constant rates model is not rejected by rosid and basal eudicot pairs but is rejected by asterid and eumagnoliid pairs. These results provide strong support for the hypothesis that species-level rates of origination and/or extinction have varied nonrandomly within angiosperms and that the magnitude of heterogeneity varies among major groups within angiosperms.