Paleodemographic analysis of age at death for a population of Black Sea Scythians: An exploration by using Bayesian methods.

OBJECTIVES: Studies of the demography of past populations involving deterministic life tables can be criticized for ignoring the errors of estimation. Bayesian methods offer an alternative, by focusing on the uncertainty of the estimates, although their results are often sensitive to the choice of prior distributions. The aim of this study is to explore a range of Bayesian methods for estimating age at death for a population of nomadic warriors-Scythians from the Black Sea region. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In total, skeletons of 312 individuals (93 children and 219 adults) from Glinoe (Moldova), dated to the 5th-2nd century BCE, were examined. We unified the age categories corresponding to different aging methods, allowing an application of a probabilistic assessment of the age categorization. A hierarchical Bayesian multinomial-Dirichlet-Dirichlet model was applied, with a hypothetical, subjective reference population, a real reference population, and no reference. RESULTS: Stationary-population life expectancy was estimated as 27.7 years (95% CI: 25.1-30.3) for a newborn (e0 ), and 16.4 years (14.0-19.0) for 20-year-olds (e20 ), although with high uncertainty, and sensitive to the model specification. Slight differences in longevity between different social strata and between the Classical and Late chronological periods were found, although with high estimation errors. A more robust finding, confirming earlier studies, was a high probability of death in young adulthood, which could depend on Scythian lifestyle (conflicts, wars). DISCUSSION: Our study shows a way to overcome some limitations of broad age categorization by using the Bayesian approach with alternative model specifications, allowing to assess the impact of reference populations.

Ancient genomes suggest the eastern Pontic-Caspian steppe as the source of western Iron Age nomads.

For millennia, the Pontic-Caspian steppe was a connector between the Eurasian steppe and Europe. In this scene, multidirectional and sequential movements of different populations may have occurred, including those of the Eurasian steppe nomads. We sequenced 35 genomes (low to medium coverage) of Bronze Age individuals (Srubnaya-Alakulskaya) and Iron Age nomads (Cimmerians, Scythians, and Sarmatians) that represent four distinct cultural entities corresponding to the chronological sequence of cultural complexes in the region. Our results suggest that, despite genetic links among these peoples, no group can be considered a direct ancestor of the subsequent group. The nomadic populations were heterogeneous and carried genetic affinities with populations from several other regions including the Far East and the southern Urals. We found evidence of a stable shared genetic signature, making the eastern Pontic-Caspian steppe a likely source of western nomadic groups.

Diverse origin of mitochondrial lineages in Iron Age Black Sea Scythians.

Scythians were nomadic and semi-nomadic people that ruled the Eurasian steppe during much of the first millennium BCE. While having been extensively studied by archaeology, very little is known about their genetic identity. To fill this gap, we analyzed ancient mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from Scythians of the North Pontic Region (NPR) and successfully retrieved 19 whole mtDNA genomes. We have identified three potential mtDNA lineage ancestries of the NPR Scythians tracing back to hunter-gatherer and nomadic populations of east and west Eurasia as well as the Neolithic farming expansion into Europe. One third of all mt lineages in our dataset belonged to subdivisions of mt haplogroup U5. A comparison of NPR Scythian mtDNA linages with other contemporaneous Scythian groups, the Saka and the Pazyryks, reveals a common mtDNA package comprised of haplogroups H/H5, U5a, A, D/D4, and F1/F2. Of these, west Eurasian lineages show a downward cline in the west-east direction while east Eurasian haplogroups display the opposite trajectory. An overall similarity in mtDNA lineages of the NPR Scythians was found with the late Bronze Age Srubnaya population of the Northern Black Sea region which supports the archaeological hypothesis suggesting Srubnaya people as ancestors of the NPR Scythians.