Evolution of malaria in Africa for the past 40 years: impact of climatic and human factors.

Different malarial situations in Africa within the past 40 years are discussed in order to evaluate the impact of climatic and human factors on the disease. North of the equator, more droughts and lower rainfall have been recorded since 1972; and in eastern and southern Africa, there have been alternating dry and wet periods in relation to El Niño. Since 1955, the increase in human population from 125 to 450 million has resulted in both expansion of land cultivation and urbanization. In stable malaria areas of West and Central Africa and on the Madagascar coasts, the endemic situation has not changed since 1955. However, in unstable malaria areas such as the highlands and Sahel significant changes have occurred. In Madagascar, cessation of malaria control programs resulted in the deadly epidemic of 1987-88. The same situation was observed in Swaziland in 1984-85. In Uganda, malaria incidence has increased more than 30 times in the highlands (1,500-1,800 m), but its altitudinal limit has not overcome that of the beginning of the century. Cultivation of valley bottoms and extension of settlements are in large part responsible for this increase, along with abnormally heavy rainfall that favored the severe epidemic of 1994. A similar increase in malaria was observed in neighboring highlands of Rwanda and Burundi, and epidemics have been recorded in Ethiopia since 1958. In contrast, in the Sahel (Niayes region, Senegal), stricken by droughts since 1972, endemic malaria decreased drastically after the disappearance of the main vector, Anopheles funestus, due to the destruction of its larval sites by cultivation. Even during the very wet year of 1995. An funestus did not reinvade the region and malaria did not increase. The same situation was observed in the Sahelian zone of Niger. Therefore, the temperature increase of 0.5 degree C during the last 2 decades cannot be incriminated as a major cause for these malaria changes, which are mainly due to the combination of climatic, human, and operational factors.

[The reconquest of the Madagascar highlands by malaria]. / La reconquête des Hautes Terres de Madagascar par le paludisme.

A strong malaria epidemic with a high mortality rate occurred on the Madagascar Highlands in 1986-88. Vector control and free access to antimalaria drugs controlled the disease. The authors have searched for the causes of the epidemic to propose a strategy avoiding such events. The Highlands on Madagascar were known as malaria free. In 1878 a very severe epidemic flooded all the country. Development of irrigated ricefields which house both An. arabiensis and An. funestus had created a new anthropic environment. Moreover manpower imported from malarious coastal areas for rice cultivation and also for building large temples, could have brought P. falciparum. After several outbreaks the disease became endemic up to 1949. In 1949 a malaria eradication programme based on DDT spraying and drug chemoprophylaxis and chemotherapy was launched. By 1960 malaria was eliminated and DDT spraying cancelled. Only 3 foci were kept under surveillance with irregular spraying until 1975. The prophylaxis and treatment centres ("centres de nivaquinisation") were kept open up to 1979. The catholic dispensary of Analaroa, 100 km N.E. of Tananarive, opened in 1971 and worked without interruption up to now. The malaria diagnosis has always been controlled by microscopy. Its registers are probably the more reliable source of information on malaria in the area. They show that malaria was already present on the Highlands in 1971 but at a low prevalence; in 1980 when the "centres de nivaquinisation" were closed the number of cases increased by three times the progressive increase of the number of cases became exponential from 1986 to 1988 which was the peak of the epidemic; malaria remained at a high level until the end of 1993; yearly DDT spraying since 1993 have decreased the number of malaria cases among the dispensary attendants by 90%. The epidemic peak of 1988 was well documented by the Pasteur Institute of Madagascar around Tananarive. Before the epidemic started it was observed a come back of An. funestus which had been previously eliminated of most of the villages by DDT spraying. More than an epidemic the malaria increase in 1988 was a reconquest by malaria of the land from which it had been eliminated in the years 1950. This episode became dramatic because the lack of immunity of the population and the shortage of medicaments. The global warming which was advocated to explain the epidemic has no responsibility because the temperature on the Madagascar Highlands has not changed during the last 30 years. Also the cyclones do not seem to have played any role. It is very likely that the gradual decline of control measures, first DDT spraying, later drug distributions, had the main responsibility in the Highlands drama. Everywhere An. funestus reached a high level during the time where the parasite reservoir was rebuilding. They synergised each other. These findings should be taken in account in drawing the strategy planning for the next years.