Survival Patterns Among Patients With Breast Cancer in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer globally with tremendous disparities both within specific regions and across different contexts. The survival pattern of patients with breast cancer remains poorly understood in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Objective: To investigate the survival patterns of patients with breast cancer in SSA countries and compare the variation across countries and over time. Data Sources: Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and ProQuest were searched from inception to December 31, 2022, with a manual search of the references. Study Selection: Cohort studies of human participants that reported 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, and 10-year survival from diagnosis among men, women, or both with breast cancer in SSA were included. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Independent extraction of study characteristics by multiple observers was performed using open-source software, then exported to a standard spreadsheet. A random-effects model using the generalized linear mixed-effects model was used to pool data. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline for reporting was followed. Main Outcome and Measures: Survival time from diagnosis. Results: Forty-nine studies were included in the review with a sample size ranging from 21 to 2311 (total, 14 459; 196 [1.35%] men, 13 556 [93.75%] women, and 707 [4.90%] unspecified; mean age range, 38 to 71 years), of which 40 were summarized using meta-analysis. The pooled 1-year survival rate of patients with breast cancer in SSA was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67-0.88); 2-year survival rate, 0.70 (95% CI, 0.57-0.80); 3-year survival rate, 0.56 (95% CI, 0.45-0.67); 4-year survival rate, 0.54 (95% CI, 0.43-0.65); and 5-year survival rate, 0.40 (95% CI, 0.32-0.49). The subgroup analysis showed that the 5-year survival rate ranged from 0.26 (95% CI, 0.06-0.65) for studies conducted earlier than 2010 to 0.47 (95% CI, 0.32-0.64) for studies conducted later than 2020. Additionally, the 5-year survival rate was lower in countries with a low human development index (HDI) (0.36 [95% CI, 0.25-0.49) compared with a middle HDI (0.46 [95% CI, 0.33-0.60]) and a high HDI (0.54 [95% CI, 0.04-0.97]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, the survival rates for patients with breast cancer in SSA were higher in countries with a high HDI compared with a low HDI. Enhancing patient survival necessitates a comprehensive approach that involves collaboration from all relevant stakeholders.

Performance of mid-upper arm circumference to identify adolescents with obesity and metabolic syndrome: NHANES 2011-2018 analysis.

BACKGROUND: Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) was recommended for screening of adolescents with obesity, although its diagnostic performance with respect to high-precision assessment of body composition remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of MUAC in identifying obesity and metabolic syndrome in U.S. adolescents. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data (2011-2018) of adolescents aged 12-19. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and likelihood ratios of MUAC in identifying obesity and metabolic syndrome. RESULTS: In our study, data of 5496 adolescents, including 2665 females, were analysed. The prevalence of obesity was higher in boys (14%) than girls (10%), whilst metabolic syndrome was more common in males (2.6%) than females (1.7%). The area under the curve (AUC) of MUAC in identifying obesity was 0.69 in boys and 0.86 in girls, whilst the AUC of MUAC in identifying metabolic syndrome was 0.91 in boys and 0.87 in girls. The optimal MUAC cut-off for identifying adolescents with obesity was 28.3 cm in boys (sensitivity: 64.8%, specificity: 85.5%) and 30.8 cm in girls (sensitivity: 67.9%, specificity: 90.1%). CONCLUSIONS: MUAC was a good indicator of both obesity and metabolic syndrome, with higher accuracy in girls.

Association between long-term weight loss and obesity-related complications defined by Edmonton obesity staging system: analysis from the NHANES (2011-2018).

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: A successful Long-Term Weight Loss (LTWL) is associated with a more favorable metabolic disease risk profile. However, evidence is limited on the association of LTWL with obesity-related complications defined by Edmonton obesity staging system (EOSS). Hence, our study aims to assess the association between LTWL thresholds and obesity-related complications defined by EOSS among the adult US population. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2011 to 2018. Adults 18 years or older with overweight/obesity and long-term weight loss were included in the analysis. The association between long-term weight loss and obesity-related complications defined by EOSS was investigated. A multivariable logistic regression model was employed by adjusting for potential covariates. RESULTS: A total of 22,223 adults were included in the analysis. Overall, 61.8% of participants had long-term weight loss of <5%, and 4.8% of participants had successful long-term weight loss of 20% or greater. The highest long-term weight loss threshold ( ≥ 20%) had the lowest odds of EOSS stage ≥ 2 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.60; 95% CI:0.50, 0.72; p < 0.001). The lowest LTWL threshold (5-9.9%) was relatively associated with lower odds for EOSS stage ≥ 2 [OR = 0.69 95% CI: 0.61, 0.78, p < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: The LTWL categories were significantly associated with lower odds of EOSS stage ≥ 2 compared to EOSS 0 or 1. Future longitudinal research assessing the association between LTWL and EOSS components is recommended.

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

Predictive ability of anthropometric indices in identifying metabolic syndrome among US adolescents 10 to 19 years old: Analysis from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011 to 2018 data set.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify the best anthropometric indices for predicting metabolic syndrome in US adolescents. METHODS: A cross-sectional study analyzed data of adolescents ages 10 to 19 y using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011 to 2018 data. The receiver operating characteristic areas under the curve (AUCs) of waist circumference z score, body roundness index, body mass index, and A Body Shape Index in identifying predicting metabolic syndrome were assessed. Furthermore, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios of all anthropometric indices were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 5496 adolescents were included in the analysis. Waist circumference z score had an AUC of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.89-0.91), sensitivity of 95.0% (95% CI, 89.4-98.1), and specificity of 74.8% (95% CI, 73.6, 76.0). Body roundness index had an AUC of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.87-0.89), sensitivity of 96.7% (95% CI, 91.7-99.1), and specificity of 75.2% (95% CI, 74.1-76.4). Body mass index z score had an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81-0.85), sensitivity of 97.5% (95% CI, 92.9-99.5), and specificity of 68.2% (95% CI, 66.9-69.4). A Body Shape Index had an AUC of 0.59 (95% CI, 0.56-0.61), sensitivity of 75.0% (95% CI, 66.3-82.5), and specificity of 50.9% (95% CI, 49.5-52.2). CONCLUSIONS: Our study found waist circumference z score and body roundness index were the best predictors of predicting metabolic syndrome compared with body mass index z score and A Body Shape Index in both boys and girls. We recommend that future studies develop global cutoff points for these anthropometric indices and examine their performance in a multi-country setting.

Dietary diversity and its determinants among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia: evidence from the 2016 Demographic and Health Survey.

Dietary diversity in children may be influenced not only by individual circumstances but also by the features of the community in which they live. Our study aimed to assess community and individual-level determinants of minimum dietary diversity among children aged 6-23 months in Ethiopia. We included 2960 children aged 6-23 months from the recent Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey. A minimum dietary diversity was defined as the consumption of at least five food groups out of the eight reference food groups within 24 h by children aged 6-23 months. Multilevel logistic regression was used to investigate the drivers of minimum dietary diversity in Ethiopian children aged 6-23 months. About 12⋅5 % of children met the bare minimum of dietary diversification. Age of the child (9-11 months AOR, 3⋅3 (95 % CI 1⋅8, 5⋅6), 12-17 months AOR, 4⋅0 (95 % CI 2⋅4, 6⋅7), 18-23 months AOR, 3⋅5 (95 % CI 2⋅0, 5⋅8)), caregiver listening radio at least once a week AOR, 1⋅6 (95 % CI 1⋅1, 2⋅4) and wealth quantiles (Second AOR, 1⋅8 (95 % CI 1⋅1, 3⋅1), Fourth AOR, 2⋅9 (95 % CI 1⋅6, 5⋅2) and Highest AOR, 2⋅2 (95 % CI 1⋅1, 4⋅2)) were individual characteristics associated with dietary diversity. Place of residence was the only community-level characteristic associated with children's dietary diversity (Rural AOR, 0⋅4 (95 % CI 0⋅2, 0⋅6)). The minimum dietary diversity among Ethiopian children is suboptimal. Nutrition programmes aimed at enhancing dietary diversity should be strengthened in this population, particularly for those from poor families and residing in rural areas.

The performance of mid-upper arm circumference for identifying children and adolescents with overweight and obesity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to synthesise the existing evidence on the performance of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) to identify children and adolescents with overweight and obesity. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. SETTING: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, CINAHL and Google scholar databases from their inception to December 10, 2021, for relevant studies. There were no restrictions regarding the language of publication. Studies reporting measures for the diagnostic performance of MUAC compared with a reference standard for diagnosing overweight and obesity in children and adolescents aged 2-19 years were included. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 54 381 children and adolescents from twenty-one studies were reviewed; ten studies contributed to meta-analyses. RESULTS: In boys, MUAC showed a pooled AUC of 0·92 (95 % CI 0·89, 0·94), sensitivity of 84·4 (95 % CI 84·6, 90·8) and a specificity of 86·0 (95 % CI 79·2, 90·8), when compared against BMI z-score, defined overweight and obesity. As for girls, MUAC showed a pooled AUC of 0·93 (95 % CI 0·90, 0·95), sensitivity of 86·4 (95 % CI 79·8, 91·0), specificity of 86·6 (95 % CI 82·2, 90·1) when compared against overweight and obesity defined using BMI z-scores. CONCLUSION: In comparison with BMI, MUAC has an excellent performance to identify overweight and obesity in children and adolescents. However, no sufficient evidence on the performance of MUAC compared with gold standard measures of adiposity. Future research should compare performance of MUAC to the 'golden standard' measure of excess adiposity.

Trends and causes of adult mortality from 2007 to 2017 using verbal autopsy method, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVES: We aim to analyse the trends and causes of mortality among adults in Addis Ababa. SETTING: This analysis was conducted using verbal autopsy data from the Addis Ababa Mortality Surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. PARTICIPANTS: All deceased adults aged 15 years and above between 2007-2012 and 2015-2017 were included in the analysis. OUTCOME MEASURES: We collected verbal autopsy and conducted physician review to ascertain cause of death. RESULT: A total of 7911 data were included in this analysis. Non-communicable disease (NCD) accounted for 62.8% of adult mortality. Mortality from communicable diseases, maternal conditions and nutritional deficiencies followed this by accounting for 30.3% of total mortality. Injury accounted for 6.8% of total mortality. We have observed a significant decline in mortality attributed to group one cause of death (43.25% in 2007 to 12.34% in 2017, p<0.001). However, we observed a significant increase in mortality attributed to group II cause of death (from 49.95% in 2007 to 81.17% in 2017, p<0.001). The top five leading cause of death in 2017 were cerebrovascular disease (12.8%), diabetes mellitus (8.1%), chronic liver disease (6.3%), hypertension (5.7%), ischaemic heart disease (5.7%) and other specified neoplasm (5.2%). CONCLUSION: We documented an epidemiological shift in cause of mortality from communicable diseases to NCD over 10 years. There is a great progress in reducing mortality due to communicable diseases over the past years. However, the burden of NCDs call for actions for improving access to quality health service, improved case detection and community education to increase awareness. Integrating NCD intervention in to a well-established and successful programme targeting communicable diseases in the country might be beneficial for improving provision of comprehensive healthcare.

Diagnostic performance of mid-upper arm circumference to identify overweight and obesity in children and adolescents: a protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) has been suggested as an alternative screening tool to identify overweight and obesity in children and adolescents. Several studies have examined the diagnostic performance of MUAC to identify overweight and obesity in children and adolescents. However, the existing literature shows a considerable variability in measures of diagnostic performance and hence makes it difficult to direct clinical and public health practice. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to synthesise evidence on the performance of MUAC to identify overweight and obesity in children and adolescents. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A systematic search of databases including PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane CENTRAL, Web of Science, CINAHL and PsycINFO will be conducted. The search will cover all studies until 1 April 2021. Grey literature will also be retrieved from Google Scholar. Titles and abstracts will be screened by two independent reviewers. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 tool will be used to assess the risk of bias and clinical applicability of each study. To assess possible publication bias, we will use Deeks' funnel plot. We will investigate the sources of heterogeneity by visual inspection of the paired forest plots and summary receiver operating characteristic plots. The pooled summary statistics for the area under the curve, sensitivities, specificities, likelihood ratios and diagnostic ORs with 95% CI will be reported. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The underlying study is based on published articles thus does not require ethical approval. The findings of the systematic review and meta-analysis will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and disseminated in different scientific conferences and seminars. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020183148.

Mid-upper arm circumference as a screening tool for identifying adolescents with thinness.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) to identify thinness in the late adolescence period (aged 15-19 years) in Ethiopia. DESIGN: We conducted a school-based cross-sectional study. The receiver operating characteristics curve was used to examine the validity of MUAC compared with BMI Z-score to identify adolescents with thinness (BMI Z-score <-2 sd). SETTINGS: Fifteen high schools (grade 9-12) located in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 851 adolescent (456 males and 395 females) were included in the study. RESULTS: The prevalence of thinness and severe thinness among high-school adolescents in Addis Ababa was 9·5 % (95 % CI 7·7, 11·7 %). The overall AUC for MUAC against BMI Z-score <-2 SD was 0·91 (95 % CI 0·88, 0·93). The optimal MUAC cut-offs to identify thinness were 23·3 cm for males and 22·6 cm for females. These cut-off points give high sensitivity and specificity for both males (a sensitivity of 87·9 % and a specificity of 75·9 %) and females (a sensitivity of 100 % and a specificity 88·2 %). CONCLUSIONS: MUAC has a comparable level of accuracy with BMI Z-score to identify thinness in adolescents aged 15-19 years. Hence, MUAC could be used as an alternative tool for surveillance and screening of thinness among adolescents aged 15-19 years. The optimum cut-off proposed by this study may incorrectly include a large number of adolescents when used in a relatively well-nourished population. In this situation, it would be necessary to choose a cut-off with greater positive predictive value.

Performance of mid-upper arm circumference as a screening tool for identifying adolescents with overweight and obesity.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent overweight and obesity is a global public health problem, associated with an increased risk of metabolic syndrome. Recently, mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) has been suggested as a screening tool to identify overweight and obesity among school-age children and early adolescents (5-14 years). However, little is known about the potential use of MUAC in the late adolescence period (15-19 years). Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the performance of MUAC to identify overweight (including obesity) in the late adolescence period in Ethiopia. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among 851 adolescents aged 15 to 19 years. We collected anthropometric data including MUAC, weight and height with the help of trained field workers. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to examine the validity of MUAC compared to BMI Z score in identifying adolescents with overweight or obesity. Furthermore, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), proportion of correctly classified, positive, and negative likelihood ratio for the proposed optimal cut-offs. RESULTS: MUAC was strongly correlated with BMI Z score with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.81 (95% CI; 0.79-0.84). The optimal MUAC cut-off for identifying adolescents with overweight or obesity was 27.7 cm for males and 27.9 cm for females. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.96 (95% CI; 0.93-0.98) for males and 0.96 (95% CI; 0.94-0.98) for females. The accuracy level of MUAC to identify adolescents with overweight (including obesity) was high for both sexes (overall a sensitivity of 91.1% and a specificity of 90.3%). CONCLUSIONS: MUAC has relatively equivalent accuracy with BMI Z score to identify overweight and obesity in adolescents. Hence, MUAC could be used as an alternative tool for surveillance and screening of overweight in adolescents aged 15-19 years.