Spatio-Temporal Variability of Malaria Incidence in the Health District of Kati, Mali, 2015-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the implementation of control strategies at the national scale, the malaria burden remains high in Mali, with more than 2.8 million cases reported in 2019. In this context, a new approach is needed, which accounts for the spatio-temporal variability of malaria transmission at the local scale. This study aimed to describe the spatio-temporal variability of malaria incidence and the associated meteorological and environmental factors in the health district of Kati, Mali. METHODS: Daily malaria cases were collected from the consultation records of the 35 health areas of Kati's health district, for the period 2015-2019. Data on rainfall, relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, the normalized difference vegetation index, air pressure, and land use-land cover were extracted from open-access remote sensing sources, while data on the Niger River's height and flow were obtained from the National Department of Hydraulics. To reduce the dimension and account for collinearity, strongly correlated meteorological and environmental variables were combined into synthetic indicators (SI), using a principal component analysis. A generalized additive model was built to determine the lag and the relationship between the main SIs and malaria incidence. The transmission periods were determined using a change-point analysis. High-risk clusters (hotspots) were detected using the SatScan method and were ranked according to risk level, using a classification and regression tree analysis. RESULTS: The peak of the malaria incidence generally occurred in October. Peak incidence decreased from 60 cases per 1000 person-weeks in 2015, to 27 cases per 1000 person-weeks in 2019. The relationship between the first SI (river flow and height, relative humidity, and rainfall) and malaria incidence was positive and almost linear. A non-linear relationship was found between the second SI (air pressure and temperature) and malaria incidence. Two transmission periods were determined per year: a low transmission period from January to July-corresponding to a persisting transmission during the dry season-and a high transmission period from July to December. The spatial distribution of malaria hotspots varied according to the transmission period. DISCUSSION: Our study confirmed the important variability of malaria incidence and found malaria transmission to be associated with several meteorological and environmental factors in the Kati district. The persistence of malaria during the dry season and the spatio-temporal variability of malaria hotspots reinforce the need for innovative and targeted strategies.

Temporal dynamic of malaria in a suburban area along the Niger River.

BACKGROUND: Even if rainfall and temperature are factors classically associated to malaria, little is known about other meteorological factors, their variability and combinations related to malaria, in association with river height variations. Furthermore, in suburban area, urbanization and growing population density should be assessed in relation to these environmental factors. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of combined environmental, meteorological and hydrological factors on malaria incidence through time in the context of urbanization. METHODS: Population observational data were prospectively collected. Clinical malaria was defined as the presence of parasites in addition to clinical symptoms. Meteorological and hydrological factors were measured daily. For each factors variation indices were estimated. Urbanization was yearly estimated assessing satellite imaging and field investigations. Principal component analysis was used for dimension reduction and factors combination. Lags between malaria incidences and the main components were assessed by cross-correlation functions. Generalized additive model was used to assess relative impact of different environmental components, taking into account lags, and modelling non-linear relationships. Change-point analysis was used to determine transmission periods within years. RESULTS: Malaria incidences were dominated by annual periodicity and varied through time without modification of the dynamic, with no impact of the urbanization. The main meteorological factor associated with malaria was a combination of evaporation, humidity and rainfall, with a lag of 3 months. The relationship between combined temperature factors showed a linear impact until reaching high temperatures limiting malaria incidence, with a lag 3.25 months. Height and variation of the river were related to malaria incidence (respectively 6 week lag and no lag). CONCLUSIONS: The study emphasizes no decreasing trend of malaria incidence despite accurate access to care and control strategies in accordance to international recommendations. Furthermore, no decreasing trend was showed despite the urbanization of the area. Malaria transmission remain increase 3 months after the beginning of the dry season. Addition to evaporation versus humidity/rainfall, nonlinear relationship for temperature and river height and variations have to be taken into account when implementing malaria control programmes.

Malaria incidence in relation to rice cultivation in the irrigated Sahel of Mali.

Seven repeated cross-sectional parasitological surveys, collecting a total of 13,912 blood samples, were carried out from September 1995 to February 1998 in three irrigated rice growing villages and three villages without irrigated agriculture in the area surrounding Niono, Mali. Parasite prevalence varied according to season and agricultural zone, but showed similar patterns for villages within the same zone. Overall, malaria prevalence was 47% in the villages without irrigated agriculture and 34% in the irrigated rice growing villages. In a village in the irrigated zone, and a village in the non-irrigated zone, 1067 and 608 children up to the age of 14 years, respectively, were followed in a passive malariological study for the period of 13 months. Fevers were attributed to malaria using a statistical method, taking into account the parasitaemia in afebrile controls from the cross-sectional surveys. The incidence of malaria fevers differed markedly between the two zones and over time. In the village in the irrigated zone, the incidence of malaria fevers was fairly constant over the year at 0.7 per 1000 children per day. In the village without irrigated agriculture, incidence was low during the dry season (at 0.6 per 1000 children per day), whereas it was high during the rainy season (at 3.2 per 1000 children per day). These results correspond well to the malaria transmission observed in a concurrent entomological survey. Rice cultivation in the semi-arid sub-Saharan environment altered the transmission pattern from seasonal to perennial, but reduced annual incidence more than two-fold.