Prognostic performance of the REDS score, SOFA score, NEWS2 score, and the red-flag, NICE high-risk, and SIRS criteria to predict survival at 180 days, in emergency department patients admitted with suspected sepsis - An observational cohort study.

Background: Patients admitted to hospital with sepsis are at persistent risk of poor outcome after discharge. Many tools are available to risk-stratify sepsis patients for in-hospital mortality. This study aimed to identify the best risk-stratification tool to prognosticate outcome 180 days after admission via the emergency department (ED) with suspected sepsis. Methods: A retrospective observational cohort study was performed of adult ED patients who were admitted after receiving intravenous antibiotics for the treatment of a suspected sepsis, between 1st March and 31st August 2019. The Risk-stratification of ED suspected Sepsis (REDS) score, SOFA score, Red-flag sepsis criteria met, NICE high-risk criteria met, the NEWS2 score and the SIRS criteria, were calculated for each patient. Death and survival at 180 days were noted. Patients were stratified in to high and low-risk groups as per accepted criteria for each risk-stratification tool. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for each tool and the log-rank test performed. The tools were compared using Cox-proportional hazard regression (CPHR). The tools were studied further in those without the following specified co-morbidities: Dementia, malignancy, Rockwood Frailty score of 6 or more, long-term oxygen therapy and previous do-not-resuscitate orders. Results: Of the 1,057 patients studied 146 (13.8%) died at hospital discharge and 284 were known to have died within 180 days. Overall survival proportion was 74.4% at 180 days and 8.6% of the population was censored before 180 days. Only the REDS and SOFA scores identified less than 50% of the population as high-risk. All tools except the SIRS criteria, prognosticated for outcome at 180 days; Log-rank tests between high and low-risk groups were: REDS score p < 0.0001, SOFA score p < 0.0001, Red-flag criteria p = 0.001, NICE high-risk criteria p = 0.0001, NEWS2 score p = 0.003 and SIRS criteria p = 0.98. On CPHR, the REDS [Hazard ratio (HR) 2.54 (1.92-3.35)] and SOFA [HR 1.58 (1.24-2.03)] scores out-performed the other risk-stratification tools. In patients without the specified co-morbidities, only the REDS score and the SOFA score risk-stratified for outcome at 180 days. Conclusion: In this study, all the risk-stratification tools studied were found to prognosticate for outcome at 180 days, except the SIRS criteria. The REDS and SOFA scores outperformed the other tools.

Sensitivity and specificity of monocyte distribution width (MDW) in detecting patients with infection and sepsis in patients on sepsis pathway in the emergency department.

PURPOSE: Monocyte distribution width (MDW) is a biomarker for the early identification of sepsis. We assessed its accuracy in patients presenting with suspected sepsis in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: This was a single gate, single centre study in consecutive adults (≥ 18 years) admitted to the ED with suspected sepsis and clinical history compatible with infection, between 01 January and 31 December 2020 (n = 2570). RESULTS: The overall median MDW was 22.0 (IQR 19.3, 25.6). Using Sepsis-3 (qSOFA) to define sepsis, the Area Under Curve (AUC) for a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) relationship was 0.59 (95% CI 0.56, 0.61). Discrimination was similar using other clinical scores, and to that of C-reactive protein. At an MDW cutoff of 20.0, sensitivity was 0.76 (95% CI 0.73, 0.80) and specificity 0.35 (95% CI 0.33, 0.37) for Sepsis-3. MDW showed better performance to discriminate infection, with AUC 0.72 (95% CI 0.69, 0.75). At MDW 20.0, sensitivity for infection was 0.72 (95% CI 0.70, 0.74) and specificity 0.64 (95% CI 0.59, 0.70). A sensitivity analysis excluding coronavirus disease (COVID-19) admissions (n = 552) had no impact on the AUC. MDW distribution at admission was similar for bacteraemia and COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: In this population of ED admissions with a strong clinical suspicion of sepsis, MDW had a performance to identify sepsis comparable to that of other commonly used biomarkers. In this setting, MDW could be a useful additional marker of infection.

An observational cohort study of the performance of the REDS score compared to the SIRS criteria, NEWS2, CURB65, SOFA, MEDS and PIRO scores to risk-stratify emergency department suspected sepsis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of the Risk-stratification of Emergency Department suspected Sepsis (REDS) score to the SIRS criteria, NEWS2, CURB65, SOFA, MEDS and PIRO scores, to risk-stratify Emergency Department (ED) suspected sepsis patients for mortality. METHOD: A retrospective observational cohort study of prospectively collected data. Adult patients admitted from the ED after receiving intravenous antibiotics for suspected sepsis in the year 2020, were studied. Patients with COVID-19 were excluded. The scores stated above were calculated for each patient. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed for each score for the primary outcome measure, all-cause in-hospital mortality. The area under the ROC (AUROC) curves and cut-off points were identified by the statistical software. Scores above the cut-off point were deemed high-risk. The test characteristics of the high-risk groups were calculated. Comparisons were based on the AUROC curve and sensitivity for mortality of the high-risk groups. Previously published cut-off points were also studied. Calibration was also studied. RESULTS: Of the 2594 patients studied, 332 (12.8%) died. The AUROC curve for the REDS score 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-0.75) was significantly greater than the AUROC curve for the SIRS criteria 0.51 (95% CI 0.49-0.53), p < .0001 and the NEWS2 score 0.69 (95% CI 0.67-0.70), p = .005, and similar to all other scores studied. Sensitivity for mortality at the respective cut-off points identified (REDS ≥3, NEWS2 ≥ 8, CURB65 ≥ 3, SOFA ≥3, MEDS ≥10 and PIRO ≥10) was greatest for the REDS score at 80.1% (95% CI 75.4-84.3) and significantly greater than the other scores. The sensitivity for mortality for an increase of two points from baseline in the SOFA score was 63% (95% CI 57.5-68.2). CONCLUSIONS: In this single centre study, the REDS score had either a greater AUROC curve or sensitivity for mortality compared to the comparator scores, at the respective cut-off points identified.KEY MESSAGESThe REDS score is a simple and objective scoring system to risk-stratify for mortality in emergency department (MED) patients with suspected sepsis.The REDS score is better or equivalent to existing scoring systems in its discrimination for mortality.

Treatment variables associated with outcome in emergency department patients with suspected sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Early treatment is advocated in the management of patients with suspected sepsis in the emergency department (ED). We sought to understand the association between the ED treatments and outcome in patients admitted with suspected sepsis. The treatments studied were: (i) the time to antibiotics, where time zero is the time the patient was booked in which is also the triage time; (ii) the volume of intravenous fluid (IVF); (iii) mean arterial pressure (MAP) after 2000 ml of IVF and (iv) the final MAP in the ED. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the ED database of patients aged ≥ 18 year who met two SIRS criteria or one red flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted between 8th February 2016 and 31st August 2017. The primary outcome measure was all-cause in-hospital mortality. The four treatments stated above were controlled for severity of illness and subject to multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional-hazard regression to identify independent predictors of mortality. RESULTS: Of the 2,066 patients studied 272 (13.2%) died in hospital. The median time to antibiotics was 48 (interquartile range 30-82) minutes. The time to antibiotics was an independent predictor of mortality only in those who developed refractory hypotension (RH); antibiotics administered more than 55 mins after arrival was associated with an odds ratio (OR) for mortality of 2.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-6.14]. The number-needed-to-treat was 4. IVF > 2000 ml (95% CI > 500- > 2100), except in RH, and a MAP ≤ 66 mmHg after 2000 ml of IVF were also independent predictors of mortality. The OR for mortality of IVF > 2,000 ml in non-RH was 1.80 (95% CI 1.15-2.82); Number-needed-to-harm was 14. The OR for morality for a MAP ≤ 66 mmHg after 2000 ml of IVF was 3.42 (95% CI 2.10-5.57). A final MAP < 75 mmHg in the ED was associated with, but not an independent predictor of mortality. An initial systolic blood pressure of < 100 mmHg has a sensitivity of 63.3% and specificity of 88.4% for the development of RH. CONCLUSION: In this study, antibiotics were found to be time-critical in RH. Intravenous fluids > 2000 ml (except in RH) and a MAP ≤ 66 mmHg after 2000 ml of IVF were also independent predictors of mortality.

The REDS score: a new scoring system to risk-stratify emergency department suspected sepsis: a derivation and validation study.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a new clinical prediction rule to risk-stratify emergency department (ED) patients admitted with suspected sepsis. DESIGN: Retrospective prognostic study of prospectively collected data. SETTING: ED. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥18 years who met two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria or one Red Flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: In-hospital all-cause mortality. METHOD: The data were divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The simplified-Mortality in Severe Sepsis in the ED score and quick-SOFA scores, refractory hypotension and lactate were collectively termed 'component scores' and cumulatively termed the 'Risk-stratification of ED suspected Sepsis (REDS) score'. Each patient in the derivation cohort received a score (0-3) for each component score. The REDS score ranged from 0 to 12. The component scores were subject to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the REDS and the components scores were constructed and their cut-off points identified. Scores above the cut-off points were deemed high-risk. The area under the ROC (AUROC) curves and sensitivity for mortality of the high-risk category of the REDS score and component scores were compared. The REDS score was internally validated. RESULTS: 2115 patients of whom 282 (13.3%) died in hospital. Derivation cohort: 1078 patients with 140 deaths (13%). The AUROC curve with 95% CI, cut-off point and sensitivity for mortality (95% CI) of the high-risk category of the REDS score were: derivation: 0.78 (0.75 to 0.80); ≥3; 85.0 (78 to 90.5). VALIDATION: 0.74 (0.71 to 0.76); ≥3; 84.5 (77.5 to 90.0). The AUROC curve and the sensitivity for mortality of the REDS score was better than that of the component scores. Specificity and mortality rates for REDS scores of ≥3, ≥5 and ≥7 were 54.8%, 88.8% and 96.9% and 21.8%, 36.0% and 49.1%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The REDS score is a simple and objective score to risk-stratify ED patients with suspected sepsis.

Internal emergency department validation of the simplified MISSED score.

BACKGROUND: The MISSED score was derived and validated in emergency department (ED) patients with sepsis who were admitted to the ICU. This score has now been refined and simplified. The independent variables associated with mortality are age at least 65 years, serum albumin 27 g/l or less, and an international normalized ratio at least 1.3. The simplified MISSED score ranges from 0 to 3 depending on the number of variables present. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective is to validate the simplified MISSED score for predicting all-cause mortality in the ED population admitted with sepsis. The secondary end-point is to validate the risk stratification for ICU admission. METHODS: This is a pragmatic retrospective study of prospectively collected data. ED patients admitted with a diagnosis of sepsis in the year 2012 were studied. Those on warfarin were excluded. The simplified MISSED score was calculated for each patient. The test characteristics for mortality of the simplified MISSED score and the odds ratios of the high-risk groups for the secondary end-point were calculated. RESULTS: In total, 674 patients, including 65 deaths, were studied. The area under the curve for the simplified MISSED score was 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.77; P<0.0001]. The test characteristics for mortality were as follows: sensitivity 93.9% (95% CI 85-98.3), specificity 37.9% (95% CI 34.1-41.9), positive predictive value 13.9% (95% CI 10.8-17.5), and negative predictive value 98.3% (95% CI 95.7-99.5). The odds ratio for mortality for a score 2 or more was 5.01 (95% CI 2.93-8.57; P<0.0001), and that for ICU admission was 3.00 (95% CI 1.70-5.28; P=0.0001). CONCLUSION: The simplified MISSED score could be used to risk stratify septic patients in the ED.

The MISSED score, a new scoring system to predict Mortality In Severe Sepsis in the Emergency Department: a derivation and validation study.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a new scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality in septic patients in the emergency department (ED). PATIENTS AND METHOD: Septic patients admitted to the ICU and those in whom early goal-directed therapy (EGDT) was carried out in the ED were identified from the ED record. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses identified independent variables associated with mortality. The variables were given a score weighted by the odds ratio, the sum of which yielded the Mortality In Severe Sepsis in the Emergency Department (MISSED) score. The performance of the MISSED score in predicting mortality was compared with that of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, the EGDT criteria and the severe sepsis criteria. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was performed to calibrate the model. RESULTS: Independent variables identified were age at least 65 years, albumin level up to 27 g/l and international normalized ratio of 1.2 or more. The MISSED score ranged from 0-9; cut-off point 5.5. Mortality rates associated with a score of 0, less than 5.5 and 5.5 or more were 7.4, 17.7 and 40.6%, respectively. The sensitivity of the score was 96.8% (95% confidence interval 87.8-99.4%). The mortality rate and specificity associated with a score of 9 were 62.9 and 91.6% respectively. The area under the curve for the MISSED score and the APACHE II score were equal. The performance of the MISSED score of 5.5 or more in predicting mortality was similar to that of the EGDT criteria. The sensitivity of the score was equal to that for the severe sepsis criteria. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test confirmed good calibration. CONCLUSION: The MISSED score should be used in the ED.

Outcomes from implementing early goal-directed therapy for severe sepsis and septic shock : a 4-year observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine the outcome of patients with severe sepsis and septic shock who did and did not receive early goal-directed therapy (EGDT) in the emergency department (ED). The primary end point was the in-hospital mortality rate. The secondary end points were lengths of stay in the ICU and in hospital. METHOD: Patients with sepsis who satisfied two of the four systemic inflammatory response criteria and who either had a lactate of greater than 4 mmol/l or a systolic blood pressure of less than 90 mmHg after 20-30 ml/kg of fluid, were included. Patients who had EGDT commenced, and all patients who were admitted to ICU who met EGDT criteria over a 4-year period from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2009, were studied. RESULTS: One hundred and seventy-four patients with sepsis met the criteria for EGDT. Ninety-seven patients had EGDT commenced in the ED. The mortality rate in the EGDT group was 22.7% compared with 42.9% in the non-EGDT group (P=0.004). The length of stay in ICU was [(median and interquartile range)] 3D(5) versus 4D(8), P value less than 0.0001. There was no difference in the length of in-hospital stay. CONCLUSION: Initiating EGDT in the ED in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock was associated with a significant reduction in in-hospital mortality and length of stay in ICU.

Management of severe sepsis and septic shock in the emergency department: a survey of current practice in emergency departments in England.

AIM: To identify the extent to which emergency departments (EDs) in England are involved in the initiation of the pathway to early goal-directed therapy (EGDT) in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. METHOD: A survey of 173 EDs in England was carried out over a 2-month period starting in March 2006. RESULTS: 117 (67.6%) departments responded. 22 (18.8%) departments satisfied the following criteria: had a strategy to identify these patients, measured lactate, had a written protocol including EGDT and provided training for their staff. A further 10 (8.5%) EDs were working on initiating the pathway to EGDT. CONCLUSION: 18.8% of EDs in England are able to initiate the pathway to EGDT in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock.