A collection of idioms for modeling activity level evaluations in forensic science.

This paper presents a collection of idioms that is useful for modeling activity level evaluations in forensic science using Bayesian networks. The idioms are categorized into five groups: cause-consequence idioms, narrative idioms, synthesis idioms, hypothesis-conditioning idioms, and evidence-conditioning idioms. Each category represents a specific modeling objective. Furthermore, we support the use of an idiom-based approach and emphasize the relevance of our collection by combining several of the presented idioms to create a more comprehensive template model. This model can be used in cases involving transfer evidence and disputes over the actor and/or activity. Additionally, we cite literature that employs idioms in template models or case-specific models, providing the reader with examples of their use in forensic casework.

Use of Bayesian networks in forensic soil casework.

Forensic soil comparisons can be of high evidential value in a forensic case, but become complex when multiple methods and factors are considered. Bayesian networks are well suited to support forensic practitioners in complex casework. This study discusses the structure of a Bayesian network, elaborates on the in- and output data and evaluates two examples, one using source level propositions and one using activity level propositions. These examples can be applied as a template to construct a case specific network and can be used to assess sensitivity of the target output to different factors and identify avenues for research.

The use of δ(2)H and δ(18)O isotopic analyses combined with chemometrics as a traceability tool for the geographical origin of bell peppers.

Two approaches were investigated to discriminate between bell peppers of different geographic origins. Firstly, δ(18)O fruit water and corresponding source water were analyzed and correlated to the regional GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) values. The water and GNIP data showed good correlation with the pepper data, with constant isotope fractionation of about -4. Secondly, compound-specific stable hydrogen isotope data was used for classification. Using n-alkane fingerprinting data, both linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and a likelihood-based classification, using the kernel-density smoothed data, were developed to discriminate between peppers from different origins. Both methods were evaluated using the δ(2)H values and n-alkanes relative composition as variables. Misclassification rates were calculated using a Monte-Carlo 5-fold cross-validation procedure. Comparable overall classification performance was achieved, however, the two methods showed sensitivity to different samples. The combined values of δ(2)H IRMS, and complimentary information regarding the relative abundance of four main alkanes in bell pepper fruit water, has proven effective for geographic origin discrimination. Evaluation of the rarity of observing particular ranges for these characteristics could be used to make quantitative assertions regarding geographic origin of bell peppers and, therefore, have a role in verifying compliance with labeling of geographical origin.

Probabilistic peak detection for first-order chromatographic data.

We present a novel algorithm for probabilistic peak detection in first-order chromatographic data. Unlike conventional methods that deliver a binary answer pertaining to the expected presence or absence of a chromatographic peak, our method calculates the probability of a point being affected by such a peak. The algorithm makes use of chromatographic information (i.e. the expected width of a single peak and the standard deviation of baseline noise). As prior information of the existence of a peak in a chromatographic run, we make use of the statistical overlap theory. We formulate an exhaustive set of mutually exclusive hypotheses concerning presence or absence of different peak configurations. These models are evaluated by fitting a segment of chromatographic data by least-squares. The evaluation of these competing hypotheses can be performed as a Bayesian inferential task. We outline the potential advantages of adopting this approach for peak detection and provide several examples of both improved performance and increased flexibility afforded by our approach.