Selecting land-based mitigation practices to reduce GHG emissions from the rural land use sector: a case study of North East Scotland.

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 commits Scotland to reduce GHG emissions by at least 42% by 2020 and 80% by 2050, from 1990 levels. According to the Climate Change Delivery Plan, the desired emission reduction for the rural land use sector (agriculture and other land uses) is 21% compared to 1990, or 10% compared to 2006 levels. In 2006, in North East Scotland, gross greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from rural land uses were about 1599 ktCO2e. Thus, to achieve a 10% reduction in 2020 relative to 2006, emissions would have to decrease to about 1440 ktCO2e. This study developed a methodology to help selecting land-based practices to mitigate GHG emissions at the regional level. The main criterion used was the "full" mitigation potential of each practice. A mix of methods was used to undertake this study, namely a literature review and quantitative estimates. The mitigation practice that offered greatest "full" mitigation potential (≈66% reduction by 2020 relative to 2006) was woodland planting with Sitka spruce. Several barriers, such as economic, social, political and institutional, affect the uptake of mitigation practices in the region. Consequently the achieved mitigation potential of a practice may be lower than its "full" mitigation potential. Surveys and focus groups, with relevant stakeholders, need to be undertaken to assess the real area where mitigation practices can be implemented and the best way to overcome the barriers for their implementation.

Triggering change: towards a conceptualisation of major change processes in farm decision-making.

In this paper, we present a broad conceptualisation of major change in farm level trajectories. We argue that as a result of path dependency, major changes in farming practice primarily occur in response to 'trigger events', after which farm managers intensify their consideration of the options open to them, and may set a new course of action. In undertaking new actions, the farm system enters a period of instability, while new practices become established. Over time these new practices, if successfully achieving anticipated aims, lead to a further period of path dependency. Recognising and capitalising upon this pattern of events is important for the development of policies oriented towards incentivising major change in farming practices, and may explain why similar projects and/or policies influence some 'types' of farmers differently, and at different times. To illustrate our arguments, examples of this process are described in relation to empirical examples of major on-farm change processes, drawn from qualitative interviews with organic and conventional farmers in two English case study areas.

Integrating economic and biophysical data in assessing cost-effectiveness of buffer strip placement.

The European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires Member States to set water quality objectives and identify cost-effective mitigation measures to achieve "good status" in all waters. However, costs and effectiveness of measures vary both within and between catchments, depending on factors such as land use and topography. The aim of this study was to develop a cost-effectiveness analysis framework for integrating estimates of phosphorus (P) losses from land-based sources, potential abatement using riparian buffers, and the economic implications of buffers. Estimates of field-by-field P exports and routing were based on crop risk and field slope classes. Buffer P trapping efficiencies were based on literature metadata analysis. Costs of placing buffers were based on foregone farm gross margins. An integrated optimization model of cost minimization was developed and solved for different P reduction targets to the Rescobie Loch catchment in eastern Scotland. A target mean annual P load reduction of 376 kg to the loch to achieve good status was identified. Assuming all the riparian fields initially have the 2-m buffer strip required by the General Binding Rules (part of the WFD in Scotland), the model gave good predictions of P loads (345-481 kg P). The modeling results show that riparian buffers alone cannot achieve the required P load reduction (up to 54% P can be removed). In the medium P input scenario, average costs vary from £38 to £176 kg P at 10% and 54% P reduction, respectively. The framework demonstrates a useful tool for exploring cost-effective targeting of environmental measures.