Arterial stiffness and incident chronic kidney disease: a large population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Evidence from large population-based cohorts as to the association of arterial stiffness and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) is mixed. This large population-based study aimed to investigate whether arterial stiffness, assessed oscillometrically, was associated with incident CKD. METHODS: The study population comprised 4838 participants from the Vitamin D Assessment (ViDA) Study without known CKD (mean ± SD age = 66 ± 8). Arterial stiffness was assessed from 5 April, 2011 to 6 November, 2012 by way of aortic pulse wave velocity, estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, and aortic pulse pressure. Incident CKD was determined by linkage to national hospital discharge registers. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the risk of CKD in relation to chosen arterial stiffness measures over the continuum and quartiles of values. RESULTS: During a mean ± SD follow-up of 10.5 ± 0.4 years, 376 participants developed incident CKD. Following adjustment for potential confounders, aortic pulse wave velocity (hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase 1.69, 95% CI 1.45-1.97), estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (HR per SD increase 1.84, 95% CI 1.54-2.19), and aortic pulse pressure (HR per SD increase 1.37, 95% CI 1.22-1.53) were associated with the incidence of CKD. The risk of incident CKD was, compared to the first quartile, higher in the fourth quartile of aortic pulse wave velocity (HR 4.72, 95% CI 2.69-8.27; Ptrend < 0.001), estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (HR 4.28, 95% CI 2.45-7.50; Ptrend < 0.001) and aortic pulse pressure (HR 2.71, 95% CI 1.88-3.91; Ptrend < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Arterial stiffness, as measured by aortic pulse wave velocity, estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, and aortic pulse pressure may be utilised in clinical practice to help identify people at risk of future CKD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.anzctr.org.au identifier:ACTRN12611000402943.

Arterial Stiffness and Incident Glaucoma: A Large Population-Based Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether arterial stiffness, assessed oscillometrically, is associated with incident glaucoma in the Vitamin D Assessment (ViDA) Study cohort, aged 50 to 84 years. DESIGN: Prospective, population-based cohort study. METHODS: Arterial stiffness was assessed in 4,713 participants without known glaucoma (mean ± SD age = 66 ± 8 years) from 5 April 2011 to 6 November 2012 by way of aortic PWV (aPWV), estimated carotid-femoral PWV (ePWV) and aortic PP (aPP). Incident glaucoma was identified through linkage to national prescription and hospital discharge registers. Relative risks of glaucoma for each arterial stiffness measure were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression, over the continuum of values and by quartiles. RESULTS: During a mean ± SD follow-up of 10.5±0.4 years, 301 participants developed glaucoma. Arterial stiffness, as measured by aPWV (Hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.36, 95% CI 1.14-1.62) and ePWV (HR per SD increase, 1.40, 95% CI 1.14-1.71) but not aPP (HR per SD increase, 1.06, 95% CI 0.92-1.23) was associated with incident glaucoma. When arterial stiffness was analyzed as a categorical variable, the highest quartiles of aPWV (HR, 2.62, 95% CI 1.52-4.52; Ptrend = .007), ePWV (HR, 2.42, 95%CI 1.37-4.27; Ptrend = .03), and aPP (HR, 1.68, 95%CI 1.10-2.5; Ptrend = .02) were associated with the development of glaucoma. CONCLUSIONS: Arterial stiffness measured with a simple oscillometric device predicted the development of glaucoma and could potentially be used in clinical practice to help identify people at risk of this condition. It may also present a new therapeutic research avenue, including in respect of systemic antihypertensives.

Priority Health Needs and Challenges in New Zealand Pacific Communities-A Qualitative Analysis of Healthcare Delivery during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The Pacific community in New Zealand experienced an increased risk of COVID-19 transmission due to delayed contact tracing, along with a disproportionate prevalence of health challenges. The community is representative of a diverse population who proudly identify with the vibrant Pacific Island nations of Samoa, Tonga, Cook Islands, Niue, Fiji, etc. Pacific communities in New Zealand face a higher burden of health challenges compared to other groups. These challenges include obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes, mental health disorders, respiratory issues, smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, disabilities, and chronic conditions. Concerns were raised regarding the oversight of Pacific community views in the initial pandemic response planning. Pacific healthcare professionals expressed concerns about inadequate state support and the need for active involvement in decision making. METHODS: This article reports thematic analyses of text data gained from open-ended questions from a purposive anonymous online survey completed by Pacific healthcare professionals in New Zealand. RESULTS: The participants shared their experiences and opinions, which generated four major themes highlighting priority health needs and challenges. These themes included the necessity for a culturally appropriate healthcare plan, adequate resourcing, addressing discrimination, and emphasising a united and collaborative effort for consistency. The research's limitation is the narrow scope of open-ended questions in the questionnaire survey. However, conducting semi-structured face-to-face interviews can provide more in-depth data and offer further insights beyond the four broad themes identified in the analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The findings can inform the development of future research to provide more in-depth data and offer further insights beyond the four broad themes identified in the analysis. This will help develop future tailored healthcare delivery plans that address specific Pacific community needs.

Serum 25(OH)D Concentration, Vitamin D Supplementation, and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes or Prediabetes: a Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is uncertain about the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration and health outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association between vitamin D status and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We did a systematic search in PubMed, Scopus, CENTRAL, and Web of Science until May 2022. We selected 1) cohort studies investigating the association between serum 25(OH)D concentration and mortality or cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes or prediabetes and 2) randomized trials of vitamin D supplementation in these patients. We used random-effects pairwise meta-analyses to calculate summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: 21 cohort studies and 6 randomized trials were included. Compared with sufficient vitamin D status (≥50 nmol/L), the RR of all-cause mortality was 1.36 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.49; n = 11 studies, GRADE = moderate) for vitamin D insufficiency (25 to <50 nmol/L), and 1.58 (1.33, 1.83; n = 16, GRADE = moderate) for deficiency (<25 nmol/L). Similar findings were observed for cardiovascular mortality and morbidity but not for cancer mortality. The certainty of evidence ranged from very low to moderate. Dose-response meta-analyses indicated nonlinear associations, with the lowest risk at 25(OH)D ∼60 nmol/L for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Supplementation with vitamin D did not reduce the risk of all-cause mortality (RR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.79, 1.16; risk difference per 1000 patients: 3 fewer, 95% CI: 16 fewer, 12 more; n = 6 trials with 7316 participants; GRADE = low) or the risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity (very low- to low-certainty evidence). CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency are associated with a higher risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes or prediabetes. Vitamin D deficiency should be corrected in patients with type 2 diabetes to reach normal serum 25(OH)D concentrations, preferably 60 nmol/L. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: This systemic review was registered at PROSPERO as CRD42022326429 (=https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=326429).

Diabetes in the Cook Islands: a clinical audit.

Introduction The global burden of diabetes mellitus (diabetes) is significant and of increasing concern with more pregnant women being diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The Cook Islands face mounting pressures to address diabetes alongside competing population health needs and priorities. Cook Islands residents frequently travel to New Zealand to access health services. Inadequate information systems also make it difficult for countries to prioritise preventative measures for investment. In the absence of good data to inform effective diabetes preventative and treatment measures, people with diabetes are likely to progress to complications which will burden society and health systems in the Cook Islands and New Zealand. Aim To determine the prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes, and incidence of GDM, in the Cook Islands. Methods We analysed two Te Marae Ora Cook Islands Ministry of Health datasets, the Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD) register examining demographic data for the period 1967 to December 2018 and same for the GDM register from January 2009 to December 2018. Results Of the 1270 diabetes cases, 53% were female and half were aged 45-64 years. There were 54 pre-diabetes cases and 146 GDM. Of the 20 GDM cases who developed type 2 diabetes, 80% were diagnosed before the age of 40 years. Data quality was poor. Discussion The Cook Islands diabetes registers provide important data to inform priorities for diabetes-related preventative and treatment measures. A data analyst has been employed to ensure quality, regularly audited data and information systems.

Efficacy of vitamin D3 supplementation on cancer mortality: Systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

To evaluate the effect of vitamin D3 supplementation on cancer mortality in the general population and on prognosis in cancer patients, a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised, placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) and individual patient data (IPD) was conducted. Overall, 14 RCTs with a total of 104,727 participants (2015 cancer deaths) were identified and 7 RCTs, including 90 % of all study participants (n = 94,068), could be included in the IPD meta-analyses. The main meta-analysis of the 14 RCTs yielded a statistically non-significant reduction in cancer mortality by 6 % (risk ratio (RR) [95%-confidence interval (95%CI)]: 0.94 [0.86-1.02]). Subgroup analyses revealed a 12 % lower cancer mortality in the vitamin D3 group compared with the placebo group in 10 trials with a daily dosing regimen (RR [95%CI]: 0.88 [0.78-0.98]), whereas no mortality reduction was seen in 4 trials using a bolus regimen (RR [95%CI]: 1.07 [0.91-1.24]; p-value for interaction: 0.042). The IPD meta-analysis (RR [95%CI]: 0.93 [0.84; 1.02]) confirmed the finding of all trials. The IPD were used to test effect modification by age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration, adherence and cancer-related factors but no statistically significant findings were obtained in meta-analyses of all trials. When restricted to trials with daily dosing in a post-hoc analysis, adults aged ≥ 70 years (RR [95%CI]: 0.83 [0.77; 0.98]) and subjects with vitamin D3 therapy initiation before cancer diagnosis (RR [95%CI]: 0.87 [0.69; 0.99]) appeared to benefit most from daily vitamin D3 supplementation. Measurements of baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and inclusion of other than non-Hispanic White adults were too sparse in the trials to draw conclusions. Results for all-cause and cancer-specific survival of participants with cancer were comparable to those obtained in the general population for cancer mortality. In conclusion, vitamin D3 did not reduce cancer mortality in the main meta-analysis of all RCTs because the observed risk reduction by 6 % was not statistically significant. However, a subgroup analysis revealed that vitamin D3 administered daily, in contrast to bolus supplementation, reduced cancer mortality by 12 %.

Association of arterial stiffness and neuropathy in diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Evidence is still emerging on the relationships of arterial stiffness with cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) and peripheral neuropathy (PN). To our knowledge no systematic reviews or meta-analyses of these associations have been published. The purpose of our review was to assess the association of arterial stiffness with each type of neuropathy. Medline and Embase were systematically searched for observational studies of arterial stiffness and neuropathy.The systematic review of 60 studies (25 for CAN and 37 for PN), 59 including people with diabetes, showed arterial stiffness overall was higher in people with neuropathy than people without neuropathy. Forty-three studies were included in the meta-analysis. For CAN (19 studies), arterial stiffness was increased in people with neuropathy compared with without, as measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV) (mean difference: 1.32 m/s, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.81, p<0.00001), pulse pressure (PP) (mean difference: 6.25 mmHg, 95% CI 4.51 to 7.99, p<0.00001) or augmentation index (mean difference: 5.52%, 95% CI 3.46 to 7.58, p<0.0001). For PN (26 studies), arterial stiffness was increased in people with neuropathy compared with those without, as measured by PWV (mean difference: 1.22 m/s, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.58, p<0.00001) or PP (mean difference: 4.59 mmHg, 95% CI 2.96 to 6.22, p<0.00001). Only two cohort studies were located so the temporality of the association between arterial stiffness and neuropathy remains unclear. Increased arterial stiffness is associated with CAN and PN.PROSPERO registration number: CRD42019129563.

Prediction of Vitamin D Deficiency in Older Adults: The Role of Machine Learning Models.

CONTEXT: Conventional prediction models for vitamin D deficiency have limited accuracy. BACKGROUND: Using cross-sectional data, we developed models based on machine learning (ML) and compared their performance with those based on a conventional approach. METHODS: Participants were 5106 community-resident adults (50-84 years; 58% male). In the randomly sampled training set (65%), we constructed 5 ML models: lasso regression, elastic net regression, random forest, gradient boosted decision tree, and dense neural network. The reference model was a logistic regression model. Outcomes were deseasonalized serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) <50 nmol/L (yes/no) and <25 nmol/L (yes/no). In the test set (the remaining 35%), we evaluated predictive performance of each model, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net benefit (decision curves). RESULTS: Overall, 1270 (25%) and 91 (2%) had 25(OH)D <50 and <25 nmol/L, respectively. Compared with the reference model, the ML models predicted 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L with similar accuracy. However, for prediction of 25(OH)D <25 nmol/L, all ML models had higher AUC point estimates than the reference model by up to 0.14. AUC was highest for elastic net regression (0.93; 95% CI 0.90-0.96), compared with 0.81 (95% CI 0.71-0.91) for the reference model. In the decision curve analysis, ML models mostly achieved a greater net benefit across a range of thresholds. CONCLUSION: Compared with conventional models, ML models predicted 25(OH)D <50 nmol/L with similar accuracy but they predicted 25(OH)D <25 nmol/L with greater accuracy. The latter finding suggests a role for ML models in participant selection for vitamin D supplement trials.

Identifying metabolic syndrome in migrant Asian Indian adults with anthropometric and visceral fat action points.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a clustering of metabolic risk factors, including large waist circumference (WC). Other anthropometric parameters and visceral fat mass (VFM) predicted from these may improve MetS detection. Our aim was to assess the ability of such parameters to predict this clustering in a cross-sectional, diagnostic study. METHOD: Participants were 82 males and 86 females, aged 20-74 years, of Asian Indian ethnicity. VFM was estimated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) through identification of abdominal subcutaneous fat layer boundaries. Non-anthropometric metabolic risk factors (triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, blood pressure and glucose) were defined using MetS criteria. We estimated the ability of anthropometry and VFM to detect ≥ 2 of these factors by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall curves. RESULTS: Two or more non-anthropometric metabolic risk factors were present in 45 (55%) males and 29 (34%) females. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) to predict ≥ 2 of these factors using WC was 0.67 (95% confidence interval: 0.55-0.79) in males and 0.65 (0.53-0.77) in females. Optimal WC cut-points were 92 cm for males (63% accuracy) and 79 cm for females (53% accuracy). VFM, DXA-measured sagittal diameter and suprailiac skinfold thickness yielded higher AUC point estimates (by up to 0.06), especially in females where these measures improved accuracy to 69%, 69% and 65%, respectively. Pairwise combinations that included WC further improved accuracy. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that cut-points for readily obtained measures other than WC, or in combination with WC, may provide improved detection of MetS risk factor clusters.

Circulating cardiac biomarkers improve risk stratification for incident cardiovascular disease in community dwelling populations.

BACKGROUND: Plasma cardiac markers may assist in prediction of incident cardiovascular disease. METHODS: The incremental value of cardiac Troponins (T and I) and NT-proBNP added to risk factors in the PREDICT score for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in primary care, was assessed in 4102 asymptomatic participants in a randomised controlled trial of Vitamin D (ViDA). Findings were corroborated in 2528 participants in a separate community-based observational registry of CVD-free volunteers (HVOLS). FINDINGS: Hazard ratios for first cardiovascular events adjusted for PREDICT risk factors, comparing fifth to first quintiles of marker plasma concentrations, were 2.57 (95% CI 1.47-4.49); 3.01 (1.66-5.48) and 3.38 (2.04-5.60) for hs-cTnI, hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP respectively. The C statistic for discrimination of the primary endpoint increased from 0.755 to 0.771 (+0.016, p = 0.01). Cardiac marker data correctly reclassified risk upwards in 6.7% of patients and downwards in 3.3%. These findings were corroborated by results from HVOLS. INTERPRETATION: Increments in plasma cardiac biomarkers robustly and reproducibly predicted increased hazard of incident CVD, independent of established risk factors, in two community-dwelling populations. Cardiac markers may augment risk assessment for onset of CVD in primary care. FUNDING: ViDA was funded by the Health Research Council of New Zealand (grant 10/400) and the Accident Compensation Corporation. HVOLS was funded by the Health Research Council of NZ Programme Grants (grants 02/152 and 08/070) and by grants from the Heart Foundation of NZ and the Christchurch Heart Institute Trust. Roche Diagnostics provided in-kind support for NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT assays and Abbott Laboratories for hs-cTnI assays.

Genetic control of serum 25(OH)D levels and its association with ethnicity.

BACKGROUND: Identified DNA variants associated with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin vitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration may provide mechanistic insights into the vitamin D metabolic pathway in individuals. Our aim was to further characterise participants and their serum 25(OH)D concentration at baseline using candidate single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping. METHODS: 5110 participants, aged 50-84 years, were recruited from the community. Blood samples were collected at baseline to measure serum 25(OH)D by liquid chromatography mass spectrometry and the participants were genotyped for four markers close to or within genes in the vitamin D metabolic pathway known to be associated with differences in 25(OH)D. The markers and their associated genes were rs12785878 (DHCR7), rs10741657 (CYP2R1), rs4588 (DBP) and rs2228570 (VDR). RESULTS: All four markers had significantly different genotype distributions and minor allele frequencies between the four self-determined ethnicities (European/Other, Maori, Pacific, and South Asian). For example, the frequency in each ethnic group of the G allele for the marker rs12785878 was 0.26, 0.71, 0.89, and 0.78 respectively. Using multivariable regression in the full cohort, three out of four markers were significantly associated with baseline concentrations of 25(OH)D (mean differences: 2.9-10.9 nmol/L). Collectively, the four markers explained 8.4% of the variation in 25(OH)D concentrations. CONCLUSION: Significant ethnic variations exist in the distribution of alleles associated with serum 25(OH)D concentration, particularly rs12785878, in a multi-ethnic community sample from New Zealand.

Effect of monthly vitamin D supplementation on cardiac biomarkers: A post-hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial.

The effects of vitamin D supplementation on cardiovascular diseases are controversial. Data on effects of vitamin D upon cardiac biomarkers, as surrogate endpoints of cardiovascular diseases, are limited and inconclusive. Therefore, we carried out a post-hoc analysis of sub-samples of a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial with community-based older adults who were randomized to receive monthly 100,000-IU vitamin D or placebo, to determine effect of monthly vitamin D supplementation on high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI), troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Adjusted relative difference (aRD) of follow-up geometric mean of biomarkers and adjusted relative risk (aRR) of elevated biomarkers between two groups were calculated. A total of 779 participants aged 50-84 y, randomized to vitamin D (n = 395) or placebo (n = 384) groups underwent sampling for measurement of plasma biomarkers at baseline and after one or two years treatment. Over a mean follow-up of 1.6 years, we did not find significant relative difference of geometric mean levels of three biomarkers at follow-up between vitamin D and placebo groups: hs-cTnI (aRD=1.03, 95%CI=0.97-1.09), hs-cTnT (aRD=0.99, 95%CI=0.95-1.04), and NT-proBNP (aRD=1.01, 95%CI=0.92-1.10). No significant differences were found in likelihood of clinically elevated biomarkers between two groups: hs-cTnI (aRR=0.92, 95%CI=0.51-1.69), hs-cTnT (aRR=1.11, 95%CI=0.86-1.42), and NT-proBNP (aRR=1.03,95%CI=0.89-1.20). However, among participants with initial low vitamin D status (<50 nmol/L, n = 200), follow-up NT-proBNP were significantly lower in the vitamin D group compared to placebo (geometric mean 75.9 vs 94.5 pg/mL, respectively; aRD=0.84, 95%CI=0.71-<1.00). The same results were observed for the NT-proBNP levels change from baseline between two groups. Overall, in older adults, monthly vitamin D supplementation did not reduce concentrations of hs-cTnI, hs-cTnT, and NT-proBNP. In those with low vitamin D status, vitamin D treatment was associated, on follow up and change from baseline, with lower plasma NT-proBNP compared with placebo. This potentially signals reduced risk of subsequent heart failure within this sub-group. However, we acknowledge that these findings need to be considered exploratory. Further research is required to replicate them.

Atrial fibrillation detection in primary care during blood pressure measurements and using a smartphone cardiac monitor.

Improved atrial fibrillation (AF) screening methods are required. We detected AF with pulse rate variability (PRV) parameters using a blood pressure device (BP+; Uscom, Sydney, Australia) and with a Kardia Mobile Cardiac Monitor (KMCM; AliveCor, Mountain View, CA). In 421 primary care patients (mean (range) age: 72 (31-99) years), we diagnosed AF (n = 133) from 12-lead electrocardiogram recordings, and performed PRV and KMCM measurements. PRV parameters detected AF with area under curve (AUC) values of up to 0.92. Using the mean of two sequential readings increased AUC to up to 0.94 and improved positive predictive value at a given sensitivity (by up to 18%). The KMCM detected AF with 83% sensitivity and 68% specificity. 89 KMCM recordings were "unclassified" or blank, and PRV detected AF in these with AUC values of up to 0.88. When non-AF arrhythmias (n = 56) were excluded, the KMCM device had increased specificity (73%) and PRV had higher discrimination performance (maximum AUC = 0.96). In decision curve analysis, all PRV parameters consistently achieved a positive net benefit across the range of clinical thresholds. In primary care, AF can be detected by PRV accurately and by KMCM, especially in the absence of non-AF arrhythmias or when combinations of measurements are used.

Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregate data from randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: A 2017 meta-analysis of data from 25 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) revealed a protective effect of this intervention. We aimed to examine the link between vitamin D supplementation and prevention of ARIs in an updated meta-analysis. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, and the ClinicalTrials.gov registry for studies listed from database inception to May 1, 2020. Double-blind RCTs of vitamin D3, vitamin D2, or 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) supplementation for any duration, with a placebo or low-dose vitamin D control, were eligible if they had been approved by a research ethics committee, and if ARI incidence was collected prospectively and prespecified as an efficacy outcome. Studies reporting results of long-term follow-up of primary RCTs were excluded. Aggregated study-level data, stratified by baseline 25(OH)D concentration and age, were obtained from study authors. Using the proportion of participants in each trial who had one or more ARIs, we did a random-effects meta-analysis to obtain pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs to estimate the effect of vitamin D supplementation on the risk of having one or more ARIs (primary outcome) compared with placebo. Subgroup analyses were done to estimate whether the effects of vitamin D supplementation on the risk of ARI varied according to baseline 25(OH)D concentration (<25 nmol/L vs 25·0-49·9 nmol/L vs 50·0-74·9 nmol/L vs >75·0 nmol/L), vitamin D dose (daily equivalent of <400 international units [IU] vs 400-1000 IU vs 1001-2000 IU vs >2000 IU), dosing frequency (daily vs weekly vs once per month to once every 3 months), trial duration (≤12 months vs >12 months), age at enrolment (<1·00 years vs 1·00-15·99 years vs 16·00-64·99 years vs ≥65·00 years), and presence versus absence of airway disease (ie, asthma only, COPD only, or unrestricted). Risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias Tool. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020190633. FINDINGS: We identified 1528 articles, of which 46 RCTs (75 541 participants) were eligible. Data for the primary outcome were obtained for 48 488 (98·1%) of 49 419 participants (aged 0-95 years) in 43 studies. A significantly lower proportion of participants in the vitamin D supplementation group had one or more ARIs (14 332 [61·3%] of 23 364 participants) than in the placebo group (14 217 [62·3%] of 22 802 participants), with an OR of 0·92 (95% CI 0·86-0·99; 37 studies; I2=35·6%, pheterogeneity=0·018). No significant effect of vitamin D supplementation on the risk of having one or more ARIs was observed for any of the subgroups defined by baseline 25(OH)D concentration. However, protective effects of supplementation were observed in trials in which vitamin D was given in a daily dosing regimen (OR 0·78 [95% CI 0·65-0·94]; 19 studies; I2=53·5%, pheterogeneity=0·003), at daily dose equivalents of 400-1000 IU (0·70 [0·55-0·89]; ten studies; I2=31·2%, pheterogeneity=0·16), for a duration of 12 months or less (0·82 [0·72-0·93]; 29 studies; I2=38·1%, pheterogeneity=0·021), and to participants aged 1·00-15·99 years at enrolment (0·71 [0·57-0·90]; 15 studies; I2=46·0%, pheterogeneity=0·027). No significant interaction between allocation to the vitamin D supplementation group versus the placebo group and dose, dose frequency, study duration, or age was observed. In addition, no significant difference in the proportion of participants who had at least one serious adverse event in the vitamin supplementation group compared with the placebo group was observed (0·97 [0·86-1·07]; 36 studies; I2=0·0%, pheterogeneity=0·99). Risk of bias within individual studies was assessed as being low for all but three trials. INTERPRETATION: Despite evidence of significant heterogeneity across trials, vitamin D supplementation was safe and overall reduced the risk of ARI compared with placebo, although the risk reduction was small. Protection was associated with administration of daily doses of 400-1000 IU for up to 12 months, and age at enrolment of 1·00-15·99 years. The relevance of these findings to COVID-19 is not known and requires further investigation. FUNDING: None.

Effect of monthly vitamin D supplementation on antibiotic prescribing in older adults: a post hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have reported that low vitamin D status is associated with increased risk of antibiotic use. However, trials on the effect of vitamin D supplementation on antibiotics are limited and inconclusive. OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this study was to determine the effect of monthly vitamin D supplementation on the proportion of adults with ≥1 prescriptions of antibiotics. The secondary outcomes were to determine the effect of monthly vitamin D supplementation on the number of antibiotic prescriptions and the number of days on antibiotics. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial with community-based older adults who were randomly assigned to receive monthly 100,000 IU of vitamin D or identical placebo. All analyses were based on the principle of "intention to treat." RR from log-binomial models and the incidence rate ratio (IRR) from negative binomial models were estimated for primary and secondary outcomes after adjusting for age, sex, and ethnicity. RESULTS: A total of 5108 participants aged 50-84 y were randomly assigned to vitamin D supplementation (n = 2558) or placebo (n = 2550) groups. During a median follow-up of 3.3 y, 4211 (82%) participants were prescribed antibiotics. There was no difference in the proportion of participants prescribed antibiotics between vitamin D (82%) and placebo (83%) groups (adjusted RR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.01; P = 0.42). Similarly, the number of antibiotic prescriptions per person-year did not differ between the 2 treatment groups (adjusted IRR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.04; P = 0.58). However, the number of days on antibiotics per person-year was significantly lower in the vitamin D group (mean ± SEM: 15 ± 0.7) compared with the placebo group (mean ± SEM: 17 ± 0.8) (adjusted IRR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.98; P = 0.01), especially for the tetracyclines (IRR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.85; P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term, monthly, high-dose vitamin D3 supplementation did not prevent antibiotic prescribing in older adults, but the vitamin D group had fewer days per person-year on antibiotics. Further research is required to replicate these findings. This trial was registered at www.anzctr.org.au as ACTRN12611000402943.

Vitamin D and Clinical Cancer Outcomes: A Review of Meta-Analyses.

The relationship between vitamin D status or supplementation and cancer outcomes has been examined in several meta-analyses. To address remaining knowledge gaps, we conducted a systematic overview and critical appraisal of pertinent meta-analyses. For meta-analyses of trials, we assessed their quality using AMSTAR-2 (A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews), strength of associations using umbrella review methodology and credibility of evidence using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) criteria. Meta-analyses of observational studies reported inverse associations of 25OHD with risk of cancer incidence and cancer mortality and, particularly for colorectal cancer, fulfilled some of Bradford-Hill's causation criteria. In meta-analyses of trials, vitamin D supplementation did not affect cancer incidence. However, we found credible evidence that vitamin D supplementation reduced total cancer mortality risk, with five out of six meta-analyses reporting a relative risk (RR) reduction of up to 16%: RR, 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.95). The strength of the association, however, was classified as weak. This was true among meta-analyses of high, moderate, and lower quality (AMSTAR-2-rated). Trials did not include large numbers of vitamin D-deficient participants; many tested relatively low doses and lacked sufficiently powered data on site-specific cancers. In conclusion, meta-analyses show that, although observational evidence indicates that low vitamin D status is associated with a higher risk of cancer outcomes, randomized trials show that vitamin D supplementation reduces total cancer mortality, but not cancer incidence. However, trials with larger proportions of vitamin D-insufficient participants and longer durations of follow-up, plus adequately powered data on site-specific common cancers, would provide further insight into the evidence base. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Is There Proof of Extraskeletal Benefits From Vitamin D Supplementation From Recent Mega Trials of Vitamin D?

Scientific interest in possible extraskeletal effects of vitamin D first appeared in the 1930s soon after the structure of vitamin D was characterized, and increased in the 1980s with the development of assays of 25-hydroxyvitamin D status as a marker of vitamin D status, which in observational epidemiological studies was shown to be inversely associated with many nonskeletal diseases. This resulted in the start of seven large randomized controlled trials (n > 2000 participants in each) of vitamin D supplementation giving higher doses than previously used. The intervention periods in these trials collectively started in 2009 and continued to 2020. They have recruited participants, mostly of both sexes and over the age of 50 years, from many countries and have given either daily or monthly doses of vitamin D. Collectively, the trials have a wide range of outcomes with the main focus on the prevention of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and fractures, besides many other outcomes. The findings of four trials have been published, and they have shown that vitamin D supplementation does not prevent hard-disease endpoints, such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, fractures, or falls, aside from a possible beneficial effect against cancer mortality. In contrast, beneficial effects were seen for intermediate outcomes such as BMD of spine and hips, arterial function, and lung function, especially in people with vitamin D deficiency. The finding of a benefit primarily in people with vitamin D deficiency, if confirmed by the other trials, would support a population approach to preventing vitamin D deficiency using fortification rather than the high-risk approach of screening for deficiency combined with supplementation. The findings on other outcomes from the three published trials, along with the findings from the four unpublished trials, are expected within the next 2 to 3 years to clarify the role of vitamin D supplementation in preventing nonskeletal disease. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Effect of Monthly Vitamin D Supplementation on Preventing Exacerbations of Asthma or Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Older Adults: Post Hoc Analysis of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

Randomized controlled trials have suggested that vitamin D supplementation can prevent asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. For COPD, the benefit appears to be limited to individuals with baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels <25 nmol/L. We performed a post hoc analysis of data from a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial to investigate the effect that monthly, high-dose vitamin D supplementation (versus placebo) had on older adults with asthma and/or COPD. Specifically, we investigated whether vitamin D supplementation prevented exacerbations of these conditions. Participants were randomly assigned either to an initial oral dose of 200,000 IU vitamin D3 followed by 100,000 IU monthly or to placebo, with an average follow-up period of 3.3 years. Among the 5110 participants, 775 had asthma or COPD at the beginning of the study, and were eligible for inclusion in this analysis. Exacerbations were defined by the prescription of a short-burst of oral corticosteroids. The mean age of the participants was 67 years old, and 56% were male. The mean baseline blood 25OHD level was 63 nmol/L; 2.3% were <25 nmol/L. Overall, we found that vitamin D supplementation did not affect the exacerbation risk (hazard ratio 1.08; 95%CI 0.84-1.39). Among those with baseline 25OHD <25 nmol/L, however, the hazard ratio was 0.11 (95%CI 0.02-0.51); p for interaction = 0.001. Although monthly vitamin D supplementation had no overall impact on risk of exacerbations of asthma or COPD, we found evidence of a probable benefit among those with severe vitamin D deficiency.

Effect of monthly vitamin D on diverticular disease hospitalization: Post-hoc analysis of a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Some studies have linked low vitamin D status and high risk of diverticular disease, but the causal relationship between vitamin D and diverticular disease remains unclear; clinical trial data are warranted. The objective was to assess the efficacy of vitamin D3 supplementation on diverticular disease hospitalization. METHODS: Post-hoc analysis of a community-based randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial (RCT) with 5108 participants randomized to receive monthly 100,000 IU vitamin D (n = 2558) or identical placebo (n = 2550). The outcome was time to first diverticular disease hospitalization from randomization to the end of intervention (July 2015), including a prespecified subgroup analysis in participants with baseline deseasonalized 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels < 50 nmol/L. RESULTS: Over a median of 3.3 years follow-up, 74 participants had diverticular disease hospitalization. There was no difference in the risk of diverticular disease hospitalization between vitamin D supplementation (35/2558 = 1.4%) and placebo (39/2550 = 1.5%) groups (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.90; p = 0.65), although in participants with deseasonalized 25(OH)D < 50 nmol/L (n = 1272), the risk was significantly lower in the vitamin D group than placebo (HR = 0.08, p = 0.02). DISCUSSION: Monthly 100,000 IU vitamin D3 does not reduce the risk of diverticular disease hospitalization in the general population. Further RCTs are required to investigate the effect of vitamin D supplementation on the diverticular disease in participants with low 25(OH)D levels.

Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregate data from randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: A 2017 meta-analysis of data from 25 randomised controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of acute respiratory infections revealed a protective effect of the intervention. Since then, 20 new RCTs have been completed. METHODS: Systematic review and meta-analysis of data from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of vitamin D for ARI prevention using a random effects model. Pre-specified sub-group analyses were done to determine whether effects of vitamin D on risk of ARI varied according to baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration or dosing regimen. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science and the ClinicalTrials.gov registry from inception to 1st May 2020. Double-blind RCTs of supplementation with vitamin D or calcidiol, of any duration, were eligible if they were approved by a Research Ethics Committee and if ARI incidence was collected prospectively and pre-specified as an efficacy outcome. Aggregate data, stratified by baseline 25(OH)D concentration, were obtained from study authors. The study was registered with PROSPERO (no. CRD42020190633). FINDINGS: We identified 45 eligible RCTs (total 73,384 participants). Data were obtained for 46,331 (98.0%) of 47,262 participants in 42 studies, aged 0 to 95 years. For the primary comparison of vitamin D supplementation vs. placebo, the intervention reduced risk of ARI overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 0.91, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.99; P for heterogeneity 0.01). No statistically significant effect of vitamin D was seen for any of the sub-groups defined by baseline 25(OH)D concentration. However, protective effects were seen for trials in which vitamin D was given using a daily dosing regimen (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.93); at daily dose equivalents of 400-1000 IU (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.89); and for a duration of ≤12 months (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.93). No significant interaction was seen between allocation to vitamin D vs. placebo and dose frequency, dose size, or study duration. Vitamin D did not influence the proportion of participants experiencing at least one serious adverse event (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.09). Risk of bias within individual studies was assessed as being low for all but three trials. A funnel plot showed left-sided asymmetry (P=0.008, Egger's test). INTERPRETATION: Vitamin D supplementation was safe and reduced risk of ARI, despite evidence of significant heterogeneity across trials. Protection was associated with administration of daily doses of 400-1000 IU vitamin D for up to 12 months. The relevance of these findings to COVID-19 is not known and requires investigation. FUNDING: None.