UK flockdown: A survey of smallscale poultry keepers and their understanding of governmental guidance on highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

The scale of the current outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) due to the A/H5N1 virus in the United Kingdom is unprecedented. In addition to its economic impact on the commercial poultry sector, the disease has devastated wild bird colonies and represents a potential public health concern on account of its zoonotic potential. Although the implementation of biosecurity measures is paramount to reducing the spread of HPAI in domestic and commercial settings, little is known about the attitudes and perspectives of backyard poultry keepers, who often keep their flocks in close proximity to the public. A large nationwide survey of backyard poultry keepers was undertaken in December 2021-March 2022, contemporaneous with the enforcement of an Avian Influenza Prevention Zone (AIPZ) and additional housing measures in England, Scotland and Wales. The survey explored keepers' understanding of the clinical manifestations of HPAI, compliance with housing and biosecurity measures, attitudes towards obligatory culling on confirmation of HPAI in their flocks, and the potential use of vaccination to control HPAI. Summary statistical analysis of the closed question responses was supplemented with qualitative data analysis and corpus linguistic approaches to draw out key themes and salient patterns in responses to open text questions. Survey responses were received from 1559 small-scale poultry keepers across the United Kingdom. Awareness of the HPAI outbreak was very high (99.0%). The majority of respondents learned of it via social media (53%), with Defra (49.7%), British Hen Welfare Trust (33.8%) and the APHA (22.0%) identified as the principal sources of information. Analysis revealed that backyard keepers lacked knowledge of the clinical signs of avian influenza and legal requirements relating to compliance with biosecurity measures. Some respondents dismissed the seriousness of HPAI and were unwilling to comply with the measures in force. The issue of obligatory culling proved highly emotive, and some expressed a lack of trust in authorities. Most respondents (93.1%) indicated a willingness to pay for vaccination if the option was available. Communications on biosecurity measures that are relevant to large-scale industrial setups are inappropriate for backyard contexts. Understanding the barriers that backyard keepers face is essential if official agencies are to communicate biosecurity information effectively to such groups. Lack of trust in authorities is likely to make elimination of the virus in the UK difficult. We make recommendations for tailoring HPAI-related information for backyard contexts, to aid future HPAI control measures in the UK.

Veterinarians' knowledge and experience of avian influenza and perspectives on control measures in the UK.

BACKGROUND: The scale of the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in 2021-23 due to the influenza A/H5N1 virus is unprecedented. METHODS: An online survey was designed to explore veterinarians' experiences of and confidence in treating avian species, experiences of dealing with suspected HPAI and perspectives on control measures in the UK. The survey ran between December 2021 and March 2022. RESULTS: Survey responses were received from 26 veterinarians. Although veterinarians are well placed to communicate HPAI-related information and guidance, a lack of confidence around treating birds and dealing with suspected cases of HPAI represent key barriers for non-specialist practices, and this limits opportunities to educate clients. LIMITATIONS: This study presents the views of a small group of self-selected respondents and may over-represent veterinarians with existing interests in avian species and/or avian influenza and who engage with online fora. CONCLUSIONS: Improved training and resources designed to increase confidence with avian species, along with guidance on diagnosing and reporting notifiable diseases, are needed for first opinion practices. Governing bodies should clarify regulations on treating birds in veterinary practices when HPAI outbreak numbers are high.

Exploring the responses of smallscale poultry keepers to avian influenza regulations and guidance in the United Kingdom, with recommendations for improved biosecurity messaging.

Understanding how smallscale ('backyard') poultry keepers interpret and respond to governmental directives designed to reduce the transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is of paramount importance in preparing for future HPAI outbreaks. Qualitative insights from open questions in an online survey conducted during the 2021-22 HPAI season (1,559 responses) shed light on smallscale poultry keepers' understanding of, and responses to, governmental directives to control HPAI exposure and onwards transmission. A follow-up participatory workshop (21 participants) explored the HPAI-related information sources used by smallscale poultry keepers, their trust in these sources, perceptions of HPAI-related risk, and interpretation of, opinions on and adherence to government regulations and communications regarding biosecurity and housing measures. This paper draws on a multi-scale behaviour change model to explore barriers to compliance with HPAI-related regulations. Insights from behaviour settings theory reveal how poultry-keeping settings and routines might be 'disrupted' and 're-configured' to improve long-term biosecurity and reduce the risk of HPAI exposure. The findings highlight the need for HPAI-related guidance that is tailored to smallscale poultry keepers. This guidance should include clear action points and simple, practical, affordable and sustainable suggestions for improving compliance with biosecurity measures.

Relationships between soil and badger elemental concentrations across a heterogeneously contaminated landscape.

Understanding the links between environmental and wildlife elemental concentrations is key to help assess ecosystem functions and the potential effects of legacy pollutants. In this study, livers from 448 European badgers (Meles meles) collected across the English Midlands were used to investigate the relationship between elemental concentrations in topsoils and wildlife. Mean soil sample concentrations within 2 km of each badger, determined using data from the British Geological Survey's 'Geochemical Baseline Survey of the Environment', were compared to badger liver elemental concentrations, focusing primarily on Ag, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, K, Mn, Pb, Se, Zn. Generally, the badgers appeared to have elemental concentrations comparable with those published for other related animals, though Cu concentrations tended to be lower than expected. While there was no relationship between soil and badger liver concentrations for most biologically essential elements, biologically non-essential elements, specifically Pb, Cd, As, and Ag, were positively correlated between soil and badger livers. Lead and Cd, the elements with the strongest relationships between soils and badger livers, were primarily elevated in badgers collected in Derbyshire, a county with a millennia-long history of Pb mining and significant Pb and Cd soil pollution. Cadmium concentrations in badgers were also, on average, almost nine times higher than the local soil concentrations, likely due to Cd biomagnification in earthworms, a dietary staple of badgers. While badgers are good models for studying associations between soil and wildlife elemental concentrations, due to their diet, burrowing behaviours, and site fidelity, all flora and fauna local to human-modified environments could be exposed to and impacted by legacy pollutants.

Domesticating cleaner cookstoves for improved respiratory health: Using approaches from the sanitation sector to explore the adoption and sustained use of improved cooking technologies in Nepal.

Drawing on village-based data from Nepal, this paper explores the transferability of the Integrated Behavioural Model for Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (IBM-WASH) to the clean cooking sector and its potential to elucidate how barriers to improved cookstove adoption and sustained use intersect at different scales. The paper also explores the potential of IBM-WASH, behaviour settings theory and domestication analysis to collectively inform effective behaviour change techniques and interventions that promote both adoption and sustained use of health-promoting technologies. Information on cookstove use in the community since 2012 enables valuable insights to be gained on how kitchen settings and associated cooking behaviour were re-configured as homes and stoves were re-built following the April 2015 earthquake. The methodological approach comprised of semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions, direct observation and household surveys. The findings indicated that the IBM-WASH framework translated well to the improved cookstove sector, capturing key influences on clean cooking transitions across the model's three dimensions (context, psychosocial and technology) at all five levels. Understandings gained from utilising IBM-WASH were enhanced - especially at the individual and habitual levels - by domestication analysis and settings theory which elucidated how different cooking technologies were incorporated (or not) within physical structures, everyday lives and routine behaviour. The paper concludes that this combination of approaches has potential applicability for initiatives seeking to promote improved environmental health at community-wide scales.

Long-term changes in endemic threshold populations for pertussis in England and Wales: A spatiotemporal analysis of Lancashire and South Wales, 1940-69.

Metapopulation dynamics play a critical role in driving endemic persistence and transmission of childhood infections. The endemic threshold concept, also referred to as critical community size (CCS), is a key example and is defined as the minimum population size required to sustain a continuous chain of infection transmission. The concept is fundamental to the implementation of effective vaccine-based disease control programmes. Vaccination serves to increase endemic threshold population size, promoting disease fadeout and eventual elimination of infection. To date, empirical investigations of the relationship between vaccination and endemic threshold population size have tended to focus on isolated populations in island communities. Very few studies have examined endemic threshold dynamics in 'mainland' regional populations with complex hierarchical spatial structures and varying levels of connectivity between subpopulations. The present paper provides the first spatially explicit analysis of the temporal changes in endemic threshold populations for one vaccine-preventable childhood infection (pertussis) in two dynamic regions of England and Wales: Lancashire and South Wales. Drawing upon weekly disease records of the Registrar-General of England and Wales over a 30-year period (January 1940-December 1969) regression techniques were used to estimate the endemic threshold size for pertussis in the two study regions. Survival analyses were performed to compare disease fadeout duration and probability for both regions in the pre-vaccine and vaccine eras, respectively. Our findings reveal the introduction of mass vaccination led to a considerable increase in threshold size for both Lancashire (~387,333) and South Wales (~1,460,667). Significant growth in fadeout duration was observed in the vaccine era for pertussis non-hotspots in both regions, consistent with geographical synchronisation of epidemic activity. Regional differences in endemic threshold populations reflect significant regional variations in spatial connectivity, population dispersion and level of geographical isolation.

Deep coal mining and meningococcal meningitis in England and Wales, 1931-38: Ecological study, with implications for deep shaft mining activities worldwide.

The hypothesized role of deep coal mining in the development of community-based outbreaks of meningococcal meningitis has gone largely unexplored. Taking the coalfields of Britain as a historical testbed, techniques of linear and binomial logistic regression were used to assess the association between meningococcal meningitis rates and male occupation rates for coal mining in England and Wales during the national epidemic of 1931-32 and in its aftermath. Adjusting for the epidemiological effects of age, residential density, recent changes in the number of families, housing stock and low social class, the analysis yielded evidence of a significant and positive association between coal mining occupation rates and notified levels of meningitis activity in the epidemic period. Communities in areas of the world that currently maintain substantial deep coal extraction industries may be at increased risk for the epidemic transmission of meningococcal meningitis.

Variola minor in coalfield areas of England and Wales, 1921-34: Geographical determinants of a national smallpox epidemic that spread out of effective control.

This paper uses techniques of binary logistic regression to identify the spatial determinants of the last national epidemic of smallpox to spread in England and Wales, the variola minor epidemic of 1921-34. Adjusting for age and county-level variations in vaccination coverage in infancy, the analysis identifies a dose-response gradient with increasing odds of elevated smallpox rates in local government areas with (i) medium (odds ratio [OR] = 5.32, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] 1.96-14.41) and high (OR = 11.32, 95% CI 4.20-31.59) coal mining occupation rates and (ii) medium (OR = 16.74, 95% CI 2.24-125.21) and high (OR = 63.43, 95% CI 7.82-497.21) levels of residential density. The results imply that the spatial transmission of variola virus was facilitated by the close spatial packing of individuals, with a heightened transmission risk in coal mining areas of the country. A syndemic interaction between common respiratory conditions arising from exposure to coal dust and smallpox virus transmission is postulated to have contributed to the findings. We suggest that further studies of the geographical intersection of coal mining and acute infections that are transmitted via respiratory secretions are warranted.

Controlling the geographical spread of infectious disease: plague in Italy, 1347-1851.

After the establishment of the first quarantine station in the Republic of Ragusa (modern-day Dubrovnik) in 1377, the states and principalities of Italy developed a sophisticated system of defensive quarantine in an attempt to protect themselves from the ravages of plague. Using largely unknown and unseen historical maps, this paper reconstructs the extent and operation of the system used. It is shown that a cordon sanitaire existed around the coast of Italy for several centuries, consisting of three elements: (i) an outer defensive ring of armed sailing boats in the Mediterranean and the Adriatic, (ii) a middle coastal ring of forts and observation towers, and (iii) an inner defensive ring of land-based cavalry. The principles established, although not especially successful at the time against a disease of (then) unknown aetiology, are still used today in attempts to control the spread of infections of animal and human populations.

An exploratory method for estimating the changing speed of epidemic waves from historical data.

BACKGROUND: Historical data are necessary to establish long-term trends in disease incidence but pose analytical problems since their accuracy and reliability may be poorly specified. METHODS: A robust measure of the spatial velocity, R(0A), of epidemic waves from space-time series is proposed using binary data. The method was applied to the historical records of influenza morbidity for the island of Iceland over a 61-year period of influenza seasons from 1915-16 to 1975-76. RESULTS: The onset of influenza waves tended to speed up over the period studied and the three pandemic waves associated with viral shifts in influenza A [Spanish influenza H1N1 (1918-19), Asian influenza H2N2 (1957-58) and Hong Kong influenza H3N2 (1968-69)] spread more rapidly around the island and struck earlier in the influenza season than did inter-pandemic waves, even when the latter were equally intensive as measured by total number of cases and case incidence. DISCUSSION: The potential for using R(0A) in a real-time context is explored using French influenza data. CONCLUSIONS: The new measure of wave velocity appears to be applicable to those historical time series where breakdown into regional or local areas is available. The study is being extended to (i) other countries where similar influenza time series are available and (ii) to other diseases within Iceland.

The spatial structure of epidemic emergence: geographical aspects of poliomyelitis in north-eastern USA, July-October 1916.

The great epidemic of poliomyelitis which swept New York City and surrounding territory in the summer of 1916 eclipsed all previous global experience of the disease. We draw on epidemiological information that is included in the seminal US Public Health Bulletin 91, 'Epidemiologic studies of poliomyelitis in New York City and the northeastern United States during the year 1916' (Washington DC, 1918), to re-examine the spatial structure of the epidemic. For the main phase of transmission of the epidemic, July-October 1916, it is shown that the maximum concentration of activity of poliomyelitis occurred within a 128-km radius of New York City. Although the integrity of the poliomyelitis cluster was maintained up to approximately 500 km from the metropolitan focus, the level and rate of propagation of disease declined with distance from the origin of the epidemic. Finally, it is shown that the geographical transmission of the epidemic in north-eastern USA probably followed a process of mixed contagious-hierarchical diffusion.

The Spatial Dynamics of Poliomyelitis in the United States: From Epidemic Emergence to Vaccine-Induced Retreat, 1910-1971.

This article seeks to advance an understanding of the spatial dynamics of one of the great emergent viral diseases of the twentieth century-poliomyelitis. From an apparently rare clinical condition occurring only sporadically or in small outbreaks before the late nineteenth century, poliomyelitis had, by the early 1950s, developed into a globally distributed epidemic disease. But, from 1955, continued growth was suddenly and dramatically reversed by the mass administration of inactivated (killed) and live (attenuated) poliovirus vaccines. After almost half a century of vaccine control, the world now stands on the brink of the global eradication of the disease. Against this background, the article draws upon information included in the U.S. Public Health Service's Public Health Reports and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report to examine the spatial dynamics of poliomyelitis during the phases of epidemic emergence (1910-1955) and vaccine-induced retreat (1955-1971) in the United States. It is shown that epidemic emergence was accompanied by shifts in the spatial center of activity from early diffusion poles in the northeastern states, to the western seaboard, and then finally to cover all the states of the Union. This was accompanied by accelerating epidemic propagation. The introduction of mass vaccination from the mid-1950s realigned spatial transmission of the disease, producing increased spatial volatility in the geographical center of activity and heightened dependence of epidemic outbreaks upon endemic reservoirs in the most populous states. Finally, the empirical results are generalized to suggest that the emergence and reemergence of many infectious diseases is a distinctively geographical process.

Impact of infectious diseases on war.

Wartime epidemics of infectious diseases have decimated the fighting strength of armies, caused the suspension and cancellation of military operations, and brought havoc to the civil populations of belligerent and nonbelligerent states. This article summarizes the principal factors that have contributed to the spread of infectious diseases in past wars and reviews the associated demographic losses in military and civil populations. Drawing on the detailed epidemiologic records for the United States Army, case studies of the spread of infectious diseases in relation to military mobilization are presented for the American Civil War, Spanish-American War,and World War I. The article concludes with a brief overview of infectious disease activity in high- and low-intensity conflicts of the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.