World-wide radiation dosage calculations for air crew members.

A greatly improved version of the computer program to calculate radiation dosage to air crew members is now available. Designated CARI-6, this program incorporates an updated geomagnetic cutoff rigidity model and a revision of the primary cosmic ray spectrum based on recent work by Gaisser and Stanev (1998). We believe CARI-6 provides the most accurate available method for calculating the radiation dosage to air crew members. The program is now utilized by airline companies around the world and provides unification for subsequent world-wide studies on the effects of natural radiation on aircrew members.

Evaluation of the dynamic cutoff rigidity model using dosimetry data from the STS-28 flight.

We have a developed a dynamic cutoff rigidity model based on computed world grids of vertical cutoff rigidities derived from employing the Tsyganenko magnetospheric model. The dynamic range of this model covers all magnetic activity levels specified by integer values of the Kp magnetic index. We present comparisons of the measured dose observed on the space shuttle during the August 1989 solar proton event with the dose computed from solar particles predicted to be allowed through the magnetosphere to the space shuttle position. We find a one-to-one correspondence between the portion of the orbit predicted to be subjected to solar protons and the portion of the orbit where solar particle dose measurements were obtained.

Comment on estimating the solar proton environment that may affect Mars missions.

Estimates of the energetic proton environment for a Mars mission are generally extrapolated from the solar proton observations at 1 AU. We find that solar particle events may be divided into two general classes. Events dominated by a near-sun injection of particles onto interplanetary magnetic field lines leading to the spacecraft position represent the "classical" solar particle event associated with solar activity. This class of event will scale in radial distance by the classical power law extrapolation. The extended-interplanetary-shock source generates a maximum flux as the shock passes the detection location. This class of event typically generates maximum fluence, but in this case, the flux and fluence will not scale in the classical manner with radial distance.

Calculations and observations of solar particle enhancements to the radiation environment at aircraft altitudes.

Solar particle events can give greatly enhanced radiation at aircraft altitudes, but are both difficult to predict and to calculate retrospectively. This enhanced radiation can give significant dose to aircrew and greatly increase the rate of single event effects in avionics. Validation of calculations is required but only very few events have been measured in flight. The CREAM detector on Concorde detected the event of 29 September 1989 and also four periods of enhancement during the events of 19-24 October 1989. Instantaneous rates were enhanced by up to a factor ten compared with quiet-time cosmic rays, while flight-averages were enhanced by up to a factor six. Calculations are described for increases in radiation at aircraft altitudes using solar particle spectra in conjunction with Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. In order to obtain solar particle spectra with sufficient accuracy over the required energy range it is necessary to combine space data with measurements from a wide range of geomagnetically dispersed, ground-level neutron monitors. Such spectra have been obtained for 29 September 1989 and 24 October 1989 and these are used to calculate enhancements that are compared with the data from CREAM on Concorde. The effect of cut-off rigidity suppression by geomagnetic activity is shown to be significant. For the largest event on record on 23 February 1956, there are no space data but there are data from a number of ground-level cosmic-ray detectors. Predictions for all events show very steep dependencies on both latitude and altitude. At high latitude and altitude (17 km) calculated increases with respect to cosmic rays are a factor 70 and 500 respectively for 29 September 1989 and 23 February 1956. The levels of radiation for high latitude, subsonic routes are calculated, using London to Los Angeles as an example, and can exceed 1 mSv, which is significantly higher than for Concorde routes from Europe to New York. The sensitivity of the calculations to spectral fitting, geomagnetic activity and other assumptions demonstrates the requirement for widespread carriage of radiation monitors on aircraft.

The limitations of using vertical cutoff rigidities determined from the IGRF magnetic field models for computing aircraft radiation dose.

Vertical cutoff rigidities derived from the International Geomagnetic Reference Fields (IGRF) are normally used to compute the radiation dose at a specific location and to organize the radiation dose measurements acquired at aircraft altitudes. This paper presents some of the usually ignored limits on the accuracy of the vertical cutoff rigidity models and describes some of the computational artifacts present in these models. It is noted that recent aircraft surveys of the radiation dose experienced along specific flight paths is sufficiently precise that the secular variation of the geomagnetic field is observable.

The space-developed dynamic vertical cutoff rigidity model and its applicability to aircraft radiation dose.

We have developed a dynamic geomagnetic vertical cutoff rigidity model that predicts the energetic charged particle transmission through the magnetosphere. Initially developed for space applications, we demonstrate the applicability of this library of cutoff rigidity models for computing aircraft radiation dose. The world grids of vertical cutoff rigidities were obtained by particle trajectory tracing in a magnetospheric model. This reference set of world grids of vertical cutoff rigidities calculated for satellite altitudes covers all magnetic activity levels from super quiet to extremely disturbed (i.e., Kp indices ranging from 0 to 9+) for every three hours in universal time. We utilize the McIlwain "L" parameter as the basis of the interpolation technique to reduce these initial satellite altitude vertical cutoff rigidities to cutoff rigidity values at aircraft altitudes.

The local time dependence of the anisotropic solar cosmic ray flux.

The distribution of the solar cosmic radiation flux over the earth is not uniform, but the result of complex phenomena involving the interplanetary magnetic field, the geomagnetic field and latitude and longitude of locations on the earth. The latitude effect relates to the geomagnetic shield; the longitude effect relates to local time. For anisotropic solar cosmic ray events the maximum particle flux is always along the interplanetary magnetic field direction, sometimes called the Archimedean spiral path from the sun to the earth. During anisotropic solar cosmic ray event, the locations on the earth viewing "sunward" into the interplanetary magnetic field direction will observe the largest flux (when adjustments are made for the magnetic latitude effect). To relate this phenomena to aircraft routes, for anisotropic solar cosmic ray events that occur during "normal quiescent" conditions, the maximum solar cosmic ray flux (and corresponding solar particle radiation dose) will be observed in the dawn quadrant, ideally at about 06 hours local time.

A review of solar proton events during the 22nd solar cycle.

Solar cycle 22 had significant, large fluence, energetic particle events on a scale reminiscent of the 19th solar cycle. Examination of the characteristics of these large events suggests that some of the old concepts of spectral form, intensity-time envelope and energy extrapolations, used to estimate the dose from large events that occurred during previous solar cycles should be re-evaluated. There has also been a dramatic change in perspective regarding the source of solar protons observed in interplanetary space. Very large fluence events are associated with powerful fast interplanetary shocks. The elemental composition and charge state of these events is suggestive of a dominate source in the solar corona and not from a very hot plasma. Furthermore, there is a strong suggestion that the intensity-time profile observed in space is dominated by the connection of the observer to an interplanetary shock source rather than to a unique location near the surface of the sun. These concepts will be examined from the perspective of energetic particles contributing to the dose experienced by an astronaut on an interplanetary space mission.

The cosmic ray ground level enhancement of 6 November 1997.

The relativistic solar proton event of 6 November 1997 resulted in the first ground-level enhancement (GLE) of solar cycle 23. The earliest onset was around 1215 UT but was up to 15 minutes later at some neutron monitor locations. The time of maximum intensity also varied significantly over the world-wide neutron monitor network. The modeled particle distributions and spectra are presented. The apparent particle arrival direction is found to be largely consistent with propagation outward from the sun along interplanetary magnetic field lines.

Identification of major proton fluence events from nitrates in polar ice cores.

Large transient concentrations of nitrates in polar ice cores have been identified as the signature of some major solar proton fluence events between 1940 and 1991. We review this solar proton proxy identification technique using nitrate concentration measurements in ice cores from the Arctic and Antarctic. Using this identification technique we go back in time in an attempt to identify major solar proton events during the past several centuries. There is a very large nitrate increase corresponding to the Carrington flare of 1859 evident in the Arctic ice core. Other significant nitrate increases may indicate that major solar proton events occurred toward the end of the last century. The problems associated with this new technique of using nitrates as proxies to identify solar proton events are discussed.

Comment on the use of GOES solar proton data and spectra in solar proton dose calculations.

There is a need to understand the calibration and response of the GOES solar particle detectors since the GOES data are being used to evaluate high energy solar particle events. We share some of our experience in utilizing these data in the analysis of solar particle ground-level events (GLEs). For the 29 September 1989 event, we have evaluated the solar proton and alpha particle spectral characteristics throughout the event. The results show that the solar cosmic ray spectrum is extremely hard at low energies with the magnitude of the slope increasing with increasing energy and with time.

The atmospheric cosmic- and solar energetic particle radiation environment at aircraft altitudes.

Galactic cosmic rays interact with the solar wind, the earth's magnetic field and hadron, lepton and photon fields at aircraft altitudes. In addition to cosmic rays, energetic particles generated by solar activity bombard the earth from time to time. These particles, while less energetic than cosmic rays, also produce radiation fields at aircraft altitudes which have qualitatively the same properties as atmospheric cosmic rays. We have used a code based on transport theory to calculate atmospheric cosmic-ray quantities and compared them with experimental data. Agreement with these data is seen to be good. We have then used this code to calculate equivalent doses to aircraft crews. We have also used the code to calculate radiation doses from several large solar energetic particle events which took place in 1989, including the very large event that occurred on September 29th and 30th of that year. The spectra incident on the atmosphere were determined assuming diffusive shock theory.

The heliolongitudinal distribution of solar flares associated with solar proton events.

We find that the heliolongitudinal distribution of solar flares associated with earth-observed solar proton events is a function of the particle measurement energy. For solar proton events containing fluxes with energies exceeding 1 GeV, we find a Gaussian distribution about the probable root of the Archimedean spiral favorable propagation path leading from the earth to the sun. This distribution is modified as the detection threshold is lowered. For > 100 MeV solar proton events with fluxes > or = 10 protons (cm2-sec-ster)-1 we find the distribution becomes wider with a secondary peak near the solar central meridian. When the threshold is lowered to 10 MeV the distribution further evolves. For > 10 MeV solar proton events having a flux threshold at 10 protons (cm2-sec-ster)-1 the distribution can be considered to be a composite of two Gaussians. One distribution is centered about the probable root of the Archimedean spiral favorable propagation path leading from the earth to the sun, and the other is centered about the solar central meridian. For large flux solar proton events, those with flux threshold of 1000 (cm2-sec-ster)-1 at energies > 10 MeV, we find the distribution is rather flat for about 40 degrees either side of central meridian.

Effects of orbit progression on the radiation exposures from solar proton fluxes in low Earth orbit under geomagnetic storm conditions.

The present study examines the effects of orbit progression on the exposures within a Space Station Freedom module in a 51.6-degree inclined orbit at 450 km. The storm evolution is modeled after the November 1960 event, and the solar proton flux evolution is taken from the August 1972 solar proton event. The effects of a strong magnetic shock, such as was observed during the October 1989 event, is also modeled. The statistics on hourly average storm fields for the last forty years reveal that the largest geomagnetic storms approach a Dst value of -500 nanotesla at the storm peak. Similarly, one of the largest satellite-measured proton flux (> 10 MeV) for space exposures is the event of August 1972. The effects of orbit progression (advance of the line of nodes) is examined for the above conditions to study the variation of exposures under differing times of occurrence of the solar proton peak intensity, attainment of geomagnetic storm maximum, and the location of the line of nodes of the last geomagnetically protected orbit. The impact of the inherent inhomogeneity of the space station module is examined as a limiting factor on exposure with regard to the need of additional parasitic shielding.

Solar-interplanetary circumstances associated with the major events in March and June 1991 and comparison with similar events of previous solar cycles.

The solar activity and geomagnetic storm events of March and June 1991 were associated with the appearance of an enhanced particle flux in the trapped radiation belts as discovered by the CRRES satellite observations and later measured by shuttle radiation detectors. The solar-interplanetary conditions associated with these events appear to be a major sequence of activity near the sun's central meridian generating powerful fast interplanetary shocks resulting in major perturbations to the magnetosphere. The solar-interplanetary events in 1991 are discussed and compared to similar activity in the past such as the events in February 1986, August 1972, July 1961, November 1960, and July 1959.

Atmospheric cosmic rays and solar energetic particles at aircraft altitudes.

Galactic cosmic rays, which are thought to be produced and accelerated by a variety of mechanisms in the Milky Way galaxy, interact with the solar wind, the earth's magnetic field, and its atmosphere to produce hadron, lepton, and photon fields at aircraft altitudes that are quite unlike anything produced in the laboratory. The energy spectra of these secondary particles extend from the lowest possible energy to energies over an EeV. In addition to cosmic rays, energetic particles, generated on the sun by solar flares or coronal mass ejections, bombard the earth from time to time. These particles, while less energetic than cosmic rays, also produce radiation fields at aircraft altitudes which have qualitatively the same properties as cosmic rays. The authors have calculated atmospheric cosmic-ray angular fluxes, spectra, scalar fluxes, and ionization, and compared them with experimental data. Agreement with these data is seen to be good. These data have been used to calculate equivalent doses in a simplified human phantom at aircraft altitudes and the estimated health risks to aircraft crews. The authors have also calculated the radiation doses from several large solar energetic particle events (known as GLEs, or Ground Level Events), which took place in 1989, including the very large event known as GLE 42, which took place on September 29th and 30th of that year. The spectra incident on the atmosphere were determined assuming diffusive shock theory. Unfortunately, there are essentially no experimental data with which to compare these calculations.

Significant proton events of solar cycle 22 and a comparison with events of previous solar cycles.

The sun has produced several high energy and large fluence solar proton events during solar cycle 22. This recent activity is similar to activity that occurred in the 19th solar cycle before the advent of routine space measurements. In a review of the recent events and a comparison with significant solar proton events of previous solar cycles, it appears that the 20th and 21st solar cycles were deficient in the total fluence of solar particles as detected at the earth. Therefore, when models of maximum solar proton fluxes to be encountered for deep space missions are developed, solar proton data acquired during the present solar cycle should be incorporated.

The dose rate observed on 19-21 October 1989 and its modulation by geophysical effects.

The Liulin dosimeter-radiometer on the MIR space station detected the 19 October 1989 high energy solar proton event. These results show that the main particle increase contains protons with energies up to about 9 GeV. After the main particle onset the Liulin dosimeter observed a typical geomagnetic cutoff modulation of the dose rate from the solar particles as the MIR space station traversed magnetic latitudes. When the interplanetary shock and associated solar plasma enveloped the earth on 20 October between 14 and 17 UT the radiation exposure increased significantly due to the lowering of the geomagnetic cutoff. The analysis of this event shows how various geophysical phenomena can significantly modulate the dose rate encountered by earth-orbiting spacecraft.

Proton flare and magnetic storm effect in the vicinity of the Earth.

We have developed a model and associated computational procedure for estimating energetic proton exposures during a major solar proton event that occur in combination with a large magnetic storm. Transmission functions for solar protons are computed using geomagnetic vertical cutoff data for quiescent and disturbed conditions. Predicted exposures in low altitude polar orbit are found to be orders of magnitude greater for severe magnetic storm conditions than are corresponding exposures in the absence of major disturbances. We examine the response scenario for the events of November 1960 as an example.

Geomagnetic cutoffs: a review for space dosimetry applications.

The earth's magnetic field acts as a shield against charged particle radiation from interplanetary space, technically described as the geomagnetic cutoff. The cutoff rigidity problem (except for the dipole special case) has "no solution in closed form". The dipole case yields the Stormer equation which has been repeatedly applied to the earth in hopes of providing useful approximations of cutoff rigidities. Unfortunately the earth's magnetic field has significant deviations from dipole geometry, and the Stormer cutoffs are not adequate for most applications. By application of massive digital computer power it is possible to determine realistic geomagnetic cutoffs derived from high order simulation of the geomagnetic field. Using this technique, "world-grids" of directional cutoffs for the earth's surface and for a limited number of satellite altitudes have been derived. However, this approach is so expensive and time consuming it is impractical for most spacecraft orbits, and approximations must be used. The world grids of cutoff rigidities are extensively used as lookup tables, normalization points and interpolation aids to estimate the effective geomagnetic cutoff rigidity of a specific location in space. We review the various options for estimating the cutoff rigidity for earth-orbiting satellites.