Fetal umbilical artery Doppler as a tool for universal third trimester screening: A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy.

The objective of this study was to investigate the accuracy of universal third trimester umbilical artery (UA) Doppler to predict adverse pregnancy outcome at term. We searched Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane library and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to October 2020 and we also analyzed previously unpublished data from a prospective cohort study of nulliparous women, the Pregnancy Outcome Prediction (POP) study. We included studies that performed a third-trimester ultrasound scan in unselected, low or mixed risk populations, excluding studies which only included high risk pregnancies. Meta-analysis was performed using the hierarchal summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) analysis and bivariate logit-normal models. We identified 13 studies (including the POP study) involving 67,764 pregnancies which met our inclusion criteria. The overall quality was variable and only six studies (N = 5777 patients) blinded clinicians to the UA Doppler result. The summary sensitivity and positive likelihood ratio (LR) for small for gestational age (SGA; birthweight <10th centile) were 21.7% (95% CI 13.2-33.6%) and 2.65 (95% CI 1.89-3.72) respectively. The summary positive LR for NICU admission and metabolic acidosis were 1.35 (95% CI 0.93-1.97) and 1.34 (95% CI 0.86-2.08) respectively. The results were similar in the POP study: associations with SGA (positive LR 2.66 [95% CI 2.11-3.36]) and severe SGA (birthweight <3rd centile; positive LR 3.27 [95% CI 2.29-4.68]) but no statistically significant association with neonatal morbidity. We conclude that third trimester UA Doppler has moderate predictive accuracy for small for gestational age but not for indicators of neonatal morbidity in unselected and low risk pregnancies.

Universal late pregnancy ultrasound screening to predict adverse outcomes in nulliparous women: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Currently, pregnant women are screened using ultrasound to perform gestational aging, typically at around 12 weeks' gestation, and around the middle of pregnancy. Ultrasound scans thereafter are performed for clinical indications only. OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess the case for offering universal late pregnancy ultrasound to all nulliparous women in the UK. The main questions addressed were the diagnostic effectiveness of universal late pregnancy ultrasound to predict adverse outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of either implementing universal ultrasound or conducting further research in this area. DESIGN: We performed diagnostic test accuracy reviews of five ultrasonic measurements in late pregnancy. We conducted cost-effectiveness and value-of-information analyses of screening for fetal presentation, screening for small for gestational age fetuses and screening for large for gestational age fetuses. Finally, we conducted a survey and a focus group to determine the willingness of women to participate in a future randomised controlled trial. DATA SOURCES: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from inception to June 2019. REVIEW METHODS: The protocol for the review was designed a priori and registered. Eligible studies were identified using keywords, with no restrictions for language or location. The risk of bias in studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Health economic modelling employed a decision tree analysed via Monte Carlo simulation. Health outcomes were from the fetal perspective and presented as quality-adjusted life-years. Costs were from the perspective of the public sector, defined as NHS England, and the costs of special educational needs. All costs and quality-adjusted life-years were discounted by 3.5% per annum and the reference case time horizon was 20 years. RESULTS: Umbilical artery Doppler flow velocimetry, cerebroplacental ratio, severe oligohydramnios and borderline oligohydramnios were all either non-predictive or weakly predictive of the risk of neonatal morbidity (summary positive likelihood ratios between 1 and 2) and were all weakly predictive of the risk of delivering a small for gestational age infant (summary positive likelihood ratios between 2 and 4). Suspicion of fetal macrosomia is strongly predictive of the risk of delivering a large infant, but it is only weakly, albeit statistically significantly, predictive of the risk of shoulder dystocia. Very few studies blinded the result of the ultrasound scan and most studies were rated as being at a high risk of bias as a result of treatment paradox, ascertainment bias or iatrogenic harm. Health economic analysis indicated that universal ultrasound for fetal presentation only may be both clinically and economically justified on the basis of existing evidence. Universal ultrasound including fetal biometry was of borderline cost-effectiveness and was sensitive to assumptions. Value-of-information analysis indicated that the parameter that had the largest impact on decision uncertainty was the net difference in cost between an induced delivery and expectant management. LIMITATIONS: The primary literature on the diagnostic effectiveness of ultrasound in late pregnancy is weak. Value-of-information analysis may have underestimated the uncertainty in the literature as it was focused on the internal validity of parameters, which is quantified, whereas the greatest uncertainty may be in the external validity to the research question, which is unquantified. CONCLUSIONS: Universal screening for presentation at term may be justified on the basis of current knowledge. The current literature does not support universal ultrasonic screening for fetal growth disorders. FUTURE WORK: We describe proof-of-principle randomised controlled trials that could better inform the case for screening using ultrasound in late pregnancy. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017064093. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Ultrasound scans allow doctors to check on the health of an unborn infant. Usually, all pregnant women receive a scan at about 3 months and about 5 months of pregnancy. After that, women are offered a scan during birth only if they have risk factors or if a problem develops. Problems can arise in the later stages of pregnancy, including issues with the infant's growth or whether or not the infant is breech. Some of these problems may be prevented if a scan is carried out, but scans can also be inaccurate. When they are, a woman may receive unnecessary treatment, which could even harm her or her infant. In this study we set out to review previous research about how good ultrasound scanning is at detecting infants who may be born with a condition. This study focused on detecting if the infant was too big or too small. Unfortunately, much of the previous research was not carried out to a high standard. Scanning can detect the size of a infant relatively well, but it is much less clear if scanning can predict complications that may harm the infant during birth. We also studied the costs and outcomes of scanning. We calculated the extra cost required to scan every woman and compared this with the extra benefits from preventing complications. One thing that ultrasound scans detect is whether the infant is presenting head first or bottom first (a 'breech presentation'), as infants presenting breech have high risks of complications. Scanning all women to check whether or not their infant is presenting breech seems to be cost-effective and the cost savings may even be higher than the cost of implementation, although this depends on how much the scan would cost. Whether or not it is worthwhile scanning all infants to see if they are above or below the thresholds for normal size is less clear. A larger research study could provide more reliable numbers from which to draw a conclusion. We show how such a study could be designed, so that a single study could tell us both how well scans can predict adverse outcomes and how helpful this information is.

Validation and development of models using clinical, biochemical and ultrasound markers for predicting pre-eclampsia: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk is needed to plan management. OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of existing pre-eclampsia prediction models and to develop and validate models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data meta-analysis. We also estimated the prognostic value of individual markers. DESIGN: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of cohort studies. SETTING: Source data from secondary and tertiary care. PREDICTORS: We identified predictors from systematic reviews, and prioritised for importance in an international survey. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Early-onset (delivery at < 34 weeks' gestation), late-onset (delivery at ≥ 34 weeks' gestation) and any-onset pre-eclampsia. ANALYSIS: We externally validated existing prediction models in UK cohorts and reported their performance in terms of discrimination and calibration. We developed and validated 12 new models based on clinical characteristics, clinical characteristics and biochemical markers, and clinical characteristics and ultrasound markers in the first and second trimesters. We summarised the data set-specific performance of each model using a random-effects meta-analysis. Discrimination was considered promising for C-statistics of ≥ 0.7, and calibration was considered good if the slope was near 1 and calibration-in-the-large was near 0. Heterogeneity was quantified using I2 and τ2. A decision curve analysis was undertaken to determine the clinical utility (net benefit) of the models. We reported the unadjusted prognostic value of individual predictors for pre-eclampsia as odds ratios with 95% confidence and prediction intervals. RESULTS: The International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network comprised 78 studies (3,570,993 singleton pregnancies) identified from systematic reviews of tests to predict pre-eclampsia. Twenty-four of the 131 published prediction models could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Summary C-statistics were between 0.6 and 0.7 for most models, and calibration was generally poor owing to large between-study heterogeneity, suggesting model overfitting. The clinical utility of the models varied between showing net harm to showing minimal or no net benefit. The average discrimination for IPPIC models ranged between 0.68 and 0.83. This was highest for the second-trimester clinical characteristics and biochemical markers model to predict early-onset pre-eclampsia, and lowest for the first-trimester clinical characteristics models to predict any pre-eclampsia. Calibration performance was heterogeneous across studies. Net benefit was observed for International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications first and second-trimester clinical characteristics and clinical characteristics and biochemical markers models predicting any pre-eclampsia, when validated in singleton nulliparous women managed in the UK NHS. History of hypertension, parity, smoking, mode of conception, placental growth factor and uterine artery pulsatility index had the strongest unadjusted associations with pre-eclampsia. LIMITATIONS: Variations in study population characteristics, type of predictors reported, too few events in some validation cohorts and the type of measurements contributed to heterogeneity in performance of the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models. Some published models were not validated because model predictors were unavailable in the individual participant data. CONCLUSION: For models that could be validated, predictive performance was generally poor across data sets. Although the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models show good predictive performance on average, and in the singleton nulliparous population, heterogeneity in calibration performance is likely across settings. FUTURE WORK: Recalibration of model parameters within populations may improve calibration performance. Additional strong predictors need to be identified to improve model performance and consistency. Validation, including examination of calibration heterogeneity, is required for the models we could not validate. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015029349. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 72. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?: Pre-eclampsia, a condition in pregnancy that results in raised blood pressure and protein in the urine, is a major cause of complications for the mother and baby. WHAT IS NEEDED?: A way of accurately identifying women at high risk of pre-eclampsia to allow clinicians to start preventative interventions such as administering aspirin or frequently monitoring women during pregnancy. WHERE ARE THE RESEARCH GAPS?: Although over 100 tools (models) have been reported worldwide to predict pre-eclampsia, to date their performance in women managed in the UK NHS is unknown. WHAT DID WE PLAN TO DO?: We planned to comprehensively identify all published models that predict the risk of pre-eclampsia occurring at any time during pregnancy and to assess if this prediction is accurate in the UK population. If the existing models did not perform satisfactorily, we aimed to develop new prediction models. WHAT DID WE FIND?: We formed the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network, which provided data from a large number of studies (78 studies, 25 countries, 125 researchers, 3,570,993 singleton pregnancies). We were able to assess the performance of 24 out of the 131 models published to predict pre-eclampsia in 11 UK data sets. The models did not accurately predict the risk of pre-eclampsia across all UK data sets, and their performance varied within individual data sets. We developed new prediction models that showed promising performance on average across all data sets, but their ability to correctly identify women who develop pre-eclampsia varied between populations. The models were more clinically useful when used in the care of first-time mothers pregnant with one child, compared to a strategy of treating them all as if they were at high-risk of pre-eclampsia. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?: Before using the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models in various populations, they need to be adjusted for characteristics of the particular population and the setting of application.

Placental polyamine metabolism differs by fetal sex, fetal growth restriction, and preeclampsia.

Preeclampsia and fetal growth restriction (FGR) are major causes of the more than 5 million perinatal and infant deaths occurring globally each year, and both are associated with placental dysfunction. The risk of perinatal and infant death is greater in males, but the mechanisms are unclear. We studied data and biological samples from the Pregnancy Outcome Prediction (POP) study, a prospective cohort study that followed 4,212 women having first pregnancies from their dating ultrasound scan through delivery. We tested the hypothesis that fetal sex would be associated with altered placental function using multiomic and targeted analyses. We found that spermine synthase (SMS) escapes X-chromosome inactivation (XCI) in the placenta and is expressed at lower levels in male primary trophoblast cells, and male cells were more sensitive to polyamine depletion. The spermine metabolite N1,N12-diacetylspermine (DiAcSpm) was higher in the female placenta and in the serum of women pregnant with a female fetus. Higher maternal serum levels of DiAcSpm increased the risk of preeclampsia but decreased the risk of FGR. To our knowledge, DiAcSpm is the first maternal biomarker to demonstrate opposite associations with preeclampsia and FGR, and this is the first evidence to implicate polyamine metabolism in sex-related differences in placentally related complications of human pregnancy.

Genome-wide oxidative bisulfite sequencing identifies sex-specific methylation differences in the human placenta.

DNA methylation is an important regulator of gene function. Fetal sex is associated with the risk of several specific pregnancy complications related to placental function. However, the association between fetal sex and placental DNA methylation remains poorly understood. We carried out whole-genome oxidative bisulfite sequencing in the placentas of two healthy female and two healthy male pregnancies generating an average genome depth of coverage of 25x. Most highly ranked differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were located on the X chromosome but we identified a 225 kb sex-specific DMR in the body of the CUB and Sushi Multiple Domains 1 (CSMD1) gene on chromosome 8. The sex-specific differential methylation pattern observed in this region was validated in additional placentas using in-solution target capture. In a new RNA-seq data set from 64 female and 67 male placentas, CSMD1 mRNA was 1.8-fold higher in male than in female placentas (P value = 8.5 × 10-7, Mann-Whitney test). Exon-level quantification of CSMD1 mRNA from these 131 placentas suggested a likely placenta-specific CSMD1 isoform not detected in the 21 somatic tissues analyzed. We show that the gene body of an autosomal gene, CSMD1, is differentially methylated in a sex- and placental-specific manner, displaying sex-specific differences in placental transcript abundance.